By Tony Abbott -
Even after dropping two straight games on back-to-back nights by a combined score of 8-1, the Minnesota Wild are still a relative lock to make it into the playoffs. As of Wednesday, Evolving-Hockey has their playoff odds at 90.4%. Barring a total collapse, the only question left is who they'll play -- more specifically, where they'll play.
As a (likely) Wild Card team, they'll get put in either the Central Division or Pacific Division playoff bracket. Interestingly, Minnesota hasn't been a Wild Card since the 2015-16 season and has never jumped into the Pacific Division side, which has generally been much less of a meat grinder than the Central.
Once again, the Central Division path looks like a gauntlet. The Winnipeg Jets have been hot almost the entire season, with Connor Hellebuyck playing like a runaway Vezina Trophy winner and someone who should lift the Hart. The Dallas Stars were already intimidating, then loaded up with Mikko Rantanen at the deadline. Meanwhile, the Colorado Avalanche lost Rantanen and have a 15-6-1 record since making the deal.
The Pacific Division doesn't look like a cakewalk. The Edmonton Oilers made the Cup Final last year, and the Vegas Golden Knights are two years removed from winning it all. Still, if you had to pick your poison, a team would generally prefer the Pacific. Edmonton's got their vulnerabilities, and the Los Angeles Kings haven't proved they're a "playoff-style" team in their current configuration.
However, it's hard for someone to watch the Wild these last two nights and come away thinking there's an ideal first-round matchup anywhere.
Maybe that's not fair. The team is missing Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek, (arguably) their two most important players. They didn't have Jonas Brodin in the lineup Monday night against Dallas but kept things fairly even in scoring chances. While the Wild laid an egg on Tuesday against Vegas, that was on the second half of a back-to-back with travel. All this is true.
It might sound doomer-ish, but it's also difficult to come away from these last two games and think that either playoff bracket could yield a good result for Minnesota. The Wild threw their best punch at the Stars for 59 minutes without Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek. The result was zero goals for Minnesota. Meanwhile, all Dallas needed to do was score twice in a minute to build an insurmountable lead.
If you're a Wild fan, maybe you can take some comfort in that Minnesota cut Vegas' lead to 2-1 in the third period and even lit the lamp to tie the game before waiving off Marco Rossi's goal due to playing with a high stick. But don't fool yourselves. When Brett Howden scored to lift the Golden Knights to a 2-0 lead, they had a 13-to-5 shot advantage over Minnesota. After surviving the Wild's "charge" back in the third period, they needed only 13 seconds following a Ryan Hartman penalty to put the game completely out of reach.
Minnesota's on red alert with the St. Louis Blues on the Wild's heels to pass them up in the standings. "Everything can happen in the playoffs, but first we gotta worry about getting there," Mats Zuccarello told the media postgame. It's true in the abstract, but St. Louis isn't their problem. All the Blues can do is pass Minnesota up for the first Wild Card spot and bump them into second place.
The objects in the rearview mirror are the Vancouver Canucks (six points back of Minnesota with a game in hand) and Calgary Flames (seven points back, two games in hand). And the fact is, both teams are nearly out of runway for their playoff hopes to take off. The Wild have 10 games left and realistically only need seven or eight points to clinch a spot. A 3-6-1 record probably does the trick.
The bigger worry is the sheer talent gap between the Wild, as currently assembled, and the top teams. St. Louis passing Minnesota in the standings would leave the Wild to (likely) face the Winnipeg Jets in the first round. Minnesota's 0-7-1 against the Jets since April 2023, being out-scored 32-to-13. It's hard to feel good about that matchup.
But what's the difference between the Jets and the Knights? Vegas has also had Minnesota's number over these past three years. The Wild are 1-6-2 against the Golden Knights, who have out-scored Minnesota 36-17. If history is destiny, then we're only talking about the difference between a four- and five-game series.
It's too hard to ignore how Minnesota didn't have an answer for Vegas' top players. Even more than the impact on the scoresheet by Jack Eichel (who had a hat trick) and Mark Stone (two assists), there's the fact that they weren't even going all-out, at least from a minutes perspective. In a do-or-die situation, Vegas isn't limiting those two all-star forwards to under 17 minutes per night. But that was all they needed to thoroughly handle Minnesota on Tuesday.
Of course, they play the games for a reason, and you only need to look at the Wild's last two playoff series wins to see why. In the 2014 and 2015 playoffs, Minnesota knocked off two teams that won the Central Division. Few expected much from the Wild in either season, but they surprised two top teams in consecutive years. If Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek can hit the ground running and stay healthy enough to give Minnesota a great seven games, it could happen against Winnipeg, Vegas, Dallas, Colorado, whoever.
At the same time, those upsets were a decade ago, their star forwards' health is far from a guarantee, and the Wild are dealing with salary cap limitations caused by their stars from 2014 and 15. Anything can happen, but a playoff series win for Minnesota feels like a tall, tall order after getting served a reality check in these past two games.
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