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  • The Wild's Roster Is In the Right Place To Go All the Way


    Image courtesy of Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
    Justin Hein

    The Kirill Kaprizov contract is a major news story, which means everybody needs to fire off their takes. On one side, you have normal, level-headed folks ecstatic that the best player in franchise history is locked up for his entire prime. On the other side are the joyless pocket-watchers who can’t believe Kaprizov will make over $150 million to play a game. 

    If you’re quoting Drew Doughty and calling perhaps the best Russian-born player in the world “overpaid,” I can’t help you. Then again, he would know, since Doughty once topped The Athletic’s list of worst contracts in the NHL less than a year after firing that shot. 

    Kaprizov will need to age gracefully or play under a rapidly expanding salary cap to live up to the value of his contract. According to Dom Luszczyszyn’s analytical model, Kaprizov’s annual cap hit is about $2 million per year higher than his on-ice value. 

    However, I can’t make a blog post out of just ripping Drew Doughty and re-posting tweets. So let’s go deeper. What kind of team can the Wild build around Kaprizov, now that the salary cap picture clarifies around the superstar’s mega-deal? 

    First, the good news: Kaprizov’s raise doesn’t kick in until the 2026-27 season. That means that as of this moment, Minnesota is projected to have around $16 million in salary cap space at the trade deadline. That only includes the top 12 forwards, 6 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders, so some of that $16 million will be allocated to press box players or injury call-ups, such as Vinnie Hinistroza or Jack Johnson

    However, the Wild should still have enough space at the deadline to bring in a serious addition at the trade deadline, barring another avalanche of injuries like they saw in each of the past two seasons. Concerns that the team is “injury prone” are likely overblown -- while some injuries can be recurrent, many are simply bad luck. 

    To name some of the hottest deadline ideas floated lately, Pittsburgh Penguins center Evgeni Malkin’s cap hit is only $6.1 million. New York Rangers winger Artemi Panarin would cost just under $11.7 million. 

    If the Wild can successfully accrue cap space, the sky is the limit in March 2026. 

    But what about the years that the Wild have to pay out those NHL-record cap hits to Kaprizov? For that, we need to break out the spreadsheets. 

    Wild Cap.JPG

    Salary data courtesy of PuckPedia.com  

    Minnesota has a long to-do list in 2026. Expiring free agents include Vladimir Tarasenko, Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Johansson, Vinnie Hinistroza, Zach Bogosian, Jack Johnson, Filip Gustavsson, and Cal Petersen. David Jiricek is also a pending restricted free agent. Some of those are easy replacements, but the list includes both second-line wingers, the starting goaltender, and probably the opening-night fifth, sixth, and eighth defensemen. 

    For this exercise, assume Gustavsson is extended for just over $7 million per year. That leaves around $15.9 million to find two left wings, a Johansson replacement, and fill out their third defensive pair. 

    It’s almost impossible to project a Jiricek extension, given that his 2025-26 play will have a crucial impact on his contract. However, given how few games he’s played over the past few seasons, an affordable bridge contract seems likely. Copy-pasting the Jamie Drysdale contract with an adjustment for cap inflation, a three-year contract with an average annual value (AAV) of $2.86 million seems appropriate. 

    The most expensive and most important item is replacing Tarasenko and Zuccarello. The team could re-sign them, but it’s unlikely they could keep up second-line play in ‘26-27 at ages 34 and 39, respectively. A free agent replacement is more likely if the team is truly chasing a Stanley Cup. 

    Without knowing which wingers will hit the open market on June 1, 2026, it's difficult to be sure of what term and cap hits would make sense. However, accounting for 4% annual salary cap inflation over the next several seasons, and using The Athletic’s analytical model, we can project some phantom second-liner contracts. 

    An average second-liner would be worth an $8.9 million AAV on a three-year deal, and $9.4 million on a five-year deal. If you talk yourself into a lower-end second-line forward, those numbers turn into $7.7 million and $8.2 million, respectively. 

    If you’re keeping score at home, you’ll notice that we’ve run out of money before we could even afford the second free-agent forward. We still haven’t replaced Bogosian, and we barely have enough cap space for a 13th forward or injury call-ups. 

    That raises several questions about the choices we made earlier. The biggest of these is the Gustavsson extension. Should the Wild let Gustavsson walk, and hope to ride a more affordable tandem of rookie Jesper Wallstedt and an affordable free agent? 

    Before hitting the panic button, however, remember that cap dollars are not the only currency a team has to acquire new talent. In other words, free agency is not the only way to fill roster spots. 

    To replace Tarasenko, Zuccarello, Bogosian, and Johansson, Minnesota has three options. In order from least to most expensive, those options are: 

    1. Backfill from their prospect pool. For example, promote somebody from Iowa directly to the second line.
    2. Promote a prospect and replace their previous role. Example: Liam Ohgren fills Tarasenko’s second-line role, and Minnesota pays a free agent fourth-liner.
    3. Extend the player to remain in his current role, or replace him with a free agent. 

    Of course, the cap space ran dry before all the roles were filled, because there is a better plan in place. The Wild front office isn’t praying that $23 million in projected 2026-27 cap space can replace two second-line forwards, a starting goaltender, a fourth liner, and a third-pair defenseman. At least, not without some internal improvements. 

    That’s the answer to the type of team Minnesota can put around Kaprizov. If there is hope, it rides on their prospects. If two of Danila Yurov, Liam Ohgren, Charlie Stramel, Hunter Haight, and Riley Heidt can make a jump into a second-line role, they negate one of those needs. Even if they can step into a third-line role and make one of the Wild veterans expendable, that can open up space elsewhere. 

    On the other hand, however, this team relies on prospects Zeev Buium and David Jiricek to provide at least third-pair quality defense. While they could meet that standard, the third pair in the NHL is more challenging than the first pair in college hockey or the AHL. 

    If either of those defensemen doesn’t develop to replace the declining top-three defensemen, Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, and Jake Middleton, that also becomes a major liability. On the other hand, if Buium, Jiricek, and Faber hit their ceiling, they could be better than the current core. 

    You get the picture. 

    The Wild’s cap situation isn’t perfect with Kaprizov under contract. Assembling a championship roster won’t be as easy as a few strokes of the pen each offseason. 

    On the other hand, many teams would envy Minnesota’s position. They have few holes on this year’s roster, plenty of cap space to add at the trade deadline, and a superstar under contract. They didn’t need to mortgage their future to do it either -- their prospect pool is reaching maturity, and they still hold first-round picks in each of the next three years. 

    It’s hard to assemble a better championship plan than Minnesota’s current roster. They’ve already succeeded at the hardest part: finding a superstar and keeping him in town. 

    The final phase of the plan hinges on executing prospect development effectively. It’s a frustrating conclusion as a fan, but it’s also exactly what sports are all about. 

    Minnesota has the opportunity to field an exceptional team over the next several years. If they succeed, it won’t be because the guys in suits did everything better than the other teams’ guys in suits. Instead, it will be a reflection of what sports are all about: hours in the gym, a dedication to craft, and the discipline to become the very best hockey player possible. 

    Combine that with the talent that the Wild’s top prospects have shown at the lower levels of hockey, and the roster is in exactly the right place to go all the way. 

    Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.

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    It is a lot easier to replace a bunch of second and third liners and backfill when you know that first line is pretty much accounted for.  Even moreso if a first line guy is out there in a trade and doesn't just poo poo Minnesota outright.

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    Who says you can't go home again?

    Jack Johnson and Sidney Crosby were good friends since they played together in Minnesota during High School at Shattucks. 

    The only theory that I heard was SillyG was going to get Crosby to sign here for his farewell tour (a la other good Penguin buddy Fleury) by luring him back using Jack Johnson as bait.

    Clearly, Sid must have told Guerin he's going to hang em up in Pittsburgh, and therefore Johnson was no longer valuable here.

    Edited by MrCheatachu
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    Go get Necas to center Kirill and Boldy. That would be one hell of a first line for years to come. I’d let Gustavsson walk. Goaltenders are a crapshoot every year. Try and shop Brodin or Spurgeon. Should have enough money left to fill out the roster. 

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    I would seriously like to dive into the trade market for those 2nd line guys. I think we could do it during the year too. 

    I think we are soon coming to the point where we're going to have to break the piggy bank of our highly touted prospect pool and start trading these guys out to acquire talent. That talent, in my book, should be geared toward draft classes '20-22. 

    I mentioned Voronkov and Marchenko on a different thread. But guys in that class. Since we've got that top line that can be really good, going and finding the 2nd line guys shouldn't be that hard, especially when you're looking for guys who still have RFA status. 

    Throughout the buyout years, one thing that Guerin was particularly good about was finding value players. Guys like Hartman were still a bit young and hadn't fully developed when he gave him his opportunity. There is no reason to think that now that we have money, that Guerin can't find more of those guys. 

    I think the new coach in Iowa is going to help prepare these guys even better, so that they will be viable trade pieces. We're getting to the point in time where we are the ones getting the best piece in the trade. 

    I was very excited about the 2010 draft guys and how bright the future looked back then. But, they didn't really have that full development time and were plucked early to pair with the Parise/Suter signings. This time around, these prospects have had a couple of extra years to prepare. And, I think this time around, it can be more successful. 

    I think we're going to have a real fun season on this site with a lot to talk about. My expectations are that we are in the hunt for a WC playoff birth, but will be playing far better at the end of the season than the beginning of the season. There are a lot of games this fall, and with the schedule as it is, it will favor teams with young legs. 

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    11 minutes ago, Dango said:

    Anyone have the itinerary for tonights game , are we going full starters or like the NFL  all minor A 's for the final preseason .

    Full starting lineup. The AHL guys have almost all been assigned to Iowa already. Haight is around, but not playing unless something changes in pregame warmups.

    Kaprizov-Rossi-Boldy

    Yurov-Eriksson Ek-Tarasenko

    Johansson-Hartman-Ohgren

    Foligno-Sturm-Trenin

    Middleton-Faber

    Buium-Spurgeon

    Bogosian-Jiricek (Haight on the fifth line)

    They are playing Foligno line 4 tonight only to get more minutes for the younger guys and save him for the regular season. That is not where he'll play regular season.

    Not sure who's in goal.  Sounds like they want to start with Yurov on the wing until he gets better on faceoffs or another C option misses time.

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    2 hours ago, BillieGismylover said:

    Go get Necas to center Kirill and Boldy. That would be one hell of a first line for years to come. I’d let Gustavsson walk. Goaltenders are a crapshoot every year. Try and shop Brodin or Spurgeon. Should have enough money left to fill out the roster. 

    Necas is not a true center, plays mostly wing. And trying to get a top line player from an in-division contender is going to cost a ton. Would probably have a better shot seeing who stumbles out the gate and make a friendly "just checking in".

    Personally, would love to see some interest with the Islanders. Try and poach either Barzal or horvat, maybe figure out a way to include a Gus for Sorokin angle.

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    Gus might not have had a good start to the game, but in the 3rd period, he was everywhere he needed to be. He was excellent in periods 2 and 3.

    Full disclosure, I didn't see the first period, but caught quite a bit after that. The Hartman game winner was..."super impressive".

    Hopefully the Wild have gotten their main guys where they need to be for a fast start again this season, and that Brodin will have a strong return within a couple of weeks.

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    22 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Hunt was picked up off waivers by the Minnesota Wild on Friday, Michael Russo of The Athletic reports.

    From details of the Jiricek trade from Columbus:
    The 
    Columbus Blue Jackets traded Jiricek and a 2025 fifth-round pick to the Minnesota Wild in exchange for a 2025 first-round pick, a 2026 third-round pick, a 2026 fourth-round pick, a 2027 second-round pick, and defenseman Daemon Hunt.

    Let's see if Jiricek is good enough to warrant balance of what we gave up. 

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    The first round pick is the only “scary” one to me. Those 3rd and 4th rounders rarely pan out into anything we’re going to miss and the year we gave up our second rounder we still have our 1st. 
     

    The assets sound a lot worse than what they are once you dive into them, Billy did a good job of spreading them out. 

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    3 hours ago, FredJohnson said:

    From details of the Jiricek trade from Columbus:
    The 
    Columbus Blue Jackets traded Jiricek and a 2025 fifth-round pick to the Minnesota Wild in exchange for a 2025 first-round pick, a 2026 third-round pick, a 2026 fourth-round pick, a 2027 second-round pick, and defenseman Daemon Hunt.

    Let's see if Jiricek is good enough to warrant balance of what we gave up. 

    The first round pick is the only “scary” one to me. Those 3rd and 4th rounders rarely pan out into anything we’re going to miss and the year we gave up our second rounder we still have our 1st. 
     

    The assets sound a lot worse than what they are once you dive into them, Billy did a good job of spreading them out. 
     

    Edit: sorry I think this posted twice, was trying to reply to your comment initially. This site is kind of cumbersome to use on a phone. 

    Edited by M_Nels
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    6 hours ago, M_Nels said:

    The first round pick is the only “scary” one to me. Those 3rd and 4th rounders rarely pan out into anything we’re going to miss and the year we gave up our second rounder we still have our 1st. 
     

    The assets sound a lot worse than what they are once you dive into them, Billy did a good job of spreading them out. 
     

    Edit: sorry I think this posted twice, was trying to reply to your comment initially. This site is kind of cumbersome to use on a phone. 

    ??

    Your text didn't show. Here it is again:

     

    The first round pick is the only “scary” one to me. Those 3rd and 4th rounders rarely pan out into anything we’re going to miss and the year we gave up our second rounder we still have our 1st. 
     

    The assets sound a lot worse than what they are once you dive into them, Billy did a good job of spreading them out. 
     

    Edit: sorry I think this posted twice, was trying to reply to your comment initially. This site is kind of cumbersome to use on a phone.

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    Is the Foligno/Eek/Tarasenko line gonna be called FEET? FETA? Or just CHEESE?

    The lineup for this season is looking great on paper if there aren’t anymore major injuries. The trade deadline is gonna be exciting if/when BG pulls a trade to get another star C/F type in his prime. A few guys have been talked about and we have the money to do it. I think BG is going to swing for the fence to build a quick cup contender while relying on 5 youngsters to become riding star core players for the next decade.

    The timeline has never worked out where 21-25yo’s development matched with prime stars to make that cup run and reload every year. This time is different. Season 25 thru 35 will be much different than the past. Stop reliving the failures.

     

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    On 10/3/2025 at 4:34 PM, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Kaprizov-Rossi-Boldy

    Yurov-Eriksson Ek-Tarasenko

    Johansson-Hartman-Ohgren

    Foligno-Sturm-Trenin

    Middleton-Faber

    Buium-Spurgeon

    Bogosian-Jiricek (Haight on the fifth line)

     

    Outside of Haight being in Iowa, which is justified for his playing time, this is the roster for a few weeks or months.  I think Yurov and Ohgren will switch back and forth as the season goes along with matchups and Foligno might play on line 3 with Ohgren and Hartman if you want to set a message, because that would be a physical line.  Johansson is going to be given a shot to play if he doesn't I expect Haight will be in St. Paul soon.  When Zucarello comes back Haight might be sent back to Iowa unless he is wowing the team.  Johansson is very cheap and can sit out a lot without you getting worried about the sticker shock. 

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