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  • The Wild's Inevitable Tank Is About More Than the Draft Pick


    Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
    Justin Wiggins

    Being a Minnesota Wild fan this week has felt like varying degrees of Episode 7 of Season 3 of the American sitcom series The Office. For those who are not a fan (first of all, how dare you), the episode is centered around the two Dunder Mifflin Paper Company branches as they battle to ensure their office is not the one shut down by corporate. Who knew so much could hang in the balance between Scranton, Pa., and Stamford, Conn.?

    The entire episode offers an inside look into each location as the employees scramble to make sense of the situation. Will their branch thrive, or will they all be out of jobs? Should each employee give it their all to will corporate into understanding how important they are to the company's success? Or should they waive the white flag and just accept defeat already?

    At one point in the episode, the manager of Scranton Dunder Mifflin, Michael Scott, receives news of a potential closing and waives the white flag. He stands in the middle of the room, asks for everyone’s attention, and exclaims, “It’s over…. We are screwed.”

    And that’s what the past week and change has been for the Minnesota Wild. Through the ups and downs of the entire season: a slow start, followed by a coaching change and winning streak, culminating in an injury-riddled month, which has the Wild tumbling back towards the basement of the standings. Maybe it’s time for the Wild to accept their fate.

    After a week of non-competitive games and the recent announcement of captain Jared Spurgeon’s season-ending injuries, nobody could have blamed general manager Bill Guerin and exclaimed to his team, “It’s over… We are screwed.”

    Okay, that’s not what he said, at least publicly. To the media, Guerin has said what all general managers say about this position with an aging roster that never wanted to take a step back. He plans on replacing Spurgeon with a potential trade and urged his team to press on.

    But should he? All signs point to this team potentially clawing their way back into a Wild Card spot, at best, but most likely missing the spring dance altogether. Nobody loves the word “tanking” in the State of Hockey, which has been so accustomed to playoff hockey the past decade. But in Wild's case, waiving the white flag on this season is as much about what it could do for the current roster as the potential for a top-5 pick in this summer’s draft.

    The roster could use a reset. Plain and simple. Give Guerin and the front office some credit; they’ve built a competitive team with a bright future through the cap hell years from the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts. But much of their leadership group is getting older, and the injuries are nagging more than ever.

    Spurgeon, now 34, is out for the year. His longtime blue-line teammate, Jonas Brodin, has had one of the best years of his career. But at age 30, he also missed time and played through injuries. Marcus Foligno, 32, plays a brand of hockey that has always led to injury risk. But at his age and with a contract extension that hasn’t kicked in yet, he is also someone who could allow his body to reset.

    That’s the key. This roster is set, almost in stone. With the number of extensions with trade protection dished out over the past couple of years, there isn’t much Guerin can do to save this season or move on from most of the players next year. That’s not a dig on the players Guerin has extended; that’s a topic for another day. It's more an honest assessment of where this team is at the moment.

    Guerin clearly wants to compete this year, but I’m sure he wants to compete again next year. And the year after that. Wouldn’t it make the most sense to waive the white flag on this season, even if just to give your veteran leaders, the same leaders you will depend so heavily on next year, a head start on rehabbing their bodies and resetting mentally for next year?

    Spurgeon is already getting a head start. It will be interesting to see how refreshed he looks come September when he doesn’t have to spend the beginning parts of May through June rehabbing from a surgery he delayed until after the postseason.

    I’m not saying the likes of Brodin and Foligno should fake season-ending injuries. But pushing your body into dangerous situations as you play through an injury can only make matters worse for a team that is not playing for anything meaningful.

    Plus, the Wild have young and unproven talent in Iowa, particularly on the blue line, who could benefit from a handful of NHL games toward the end of the season. Their potential development could be just as beneficial as the rest would be for their veteran stalwarts.

    Guerin probably doesn’t need to declare defeat quite just yet. But if the Wild continue to stumble as they wade through a pool of injuries, it might be prudent to get the core of your team a head start into the offseason so they can regroup and have the best chance to start healthy next year.

    Because if there is any result the State of Hockey probably dislikes more than a middle-of-the-pack finish and missing the playoffs one year, it’s seeing their team potentially finish there in back-to-back seasons.

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    11 minutes ago, TCMooch said:

    Can’t wait for us to miss playoffs by one point and draft 15 or whatever

    Sad but most likely true.

    The one thing though is that maybe we can see a healthy KK97 play his game and hopefully develop some simpatico with Rossi.

     

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    While I think this is an optimistic take on Spurgeon's injury, I don't see him ever being the same again. If we do end up trading for a player, I'd like to see an RHS D we can resign, preferably resign reasonably. I know top defending salaries have gone up, and I'm not used to capinflation yet. 

    I am higher on Spacek than Masters, but I'd say both are 2-3 seasons away. It appears as if Spacek is playing a bit more than Masters (not sure if Masters got hurt). But, essentially, the leader in games has only played about 1/2 of them for the Baby Wild.

    Lambos, to me, seems to be the closest as I already consider Hunt part of the roster. I'd also not want to use any of our 1st or 2nd round picks for the next couple of years. 

    We're going to have games like last night's, where Goose2 stands on his head and Kaprizov sneaks a couple by, but we get dominated in every other aspect of the game. But, they will be few and far between, it usually doesn't work out that way. 

    For me, I'm preparing myself for news that while Spurgeon's surgeries are deemed a success, that they also find far more damage to him than originally thought, and the 14 years of play has finally broken the player. I'm bracing myself for extended LTIR time which could be contract long. 

    The timeline looks like hip Feb. 6, and back a month later. I think if the back gets pushed back a little in the timeline, the hip had extra damage. I also believe that Spurgeon has an incredible pain tolerance and plays through stuff none of us have ever known about. 

    I'd love to see him play 1,000 games in a Wild uniform, but to me, multiple surgeries means problems. Problems to the core of a player isn't necessarily the kiss of death to a career, but it is restricting. 

    Now, if I'm Shooter, I don't do anything until the all star break. I'm going to see where the team is at that time. I've also got to realistically see where this season is going. We have jumped the Sabres and Canadiens, and have made it back to the middling pack in the West (though the teams right ahead of us have 2 games in hand). I'd recall Hunt as soon as Fleury is in the clear or on IR, and throw him into the deep end. Pair him up with Middleton on the 2nd unit. See how he reacts to an increased role.

    At the All Star break, I'm going to reassess everything. I'll have to meet with owner Leipold who keeps track of the team and explain this just isn't our year. Playoffs are a pipe dream and if by some miracle we get there, the team will be too exhausted to go anywhere. I'd present the benefits of looking longterm, and while this is a bump in the road, it brings up the opportunity to get some guys some valuable experience they wouldn't necessarily get in a stretch run, and I'd try to fill from within. 

    I did have a couple of ideas on Pesce/Skjei, and maybe bringing back Granlund to help out offensively. I'm also going to have to work the phones and field inquiries on some of our designated players. I would hope some of them would agree to go as we start the transition. I'd ask for a reprieve on the playoffs or bust, and I'd start working with the agents of Firstov, Yurov and Dino. Dino and Yurov need contracts. With Firstov, we need intentions. If he's got a problem with us, we need to know if he'll go to another organization. His K numbers dictate that he has value. 

    Sometimes, promoting from within is the best plan to go. We saw that with the Twins and Vikings this year, as some depth guys thrived when given the opportunity. So, I'd want eyes on Bankier, Beckman, Hunt, Lambos and The Wall. I might want to see cameos from Heidt, Haight, Petrovsky and Kumpulainen before season's end. Prepping for next season is a great goal, but it also requires sacrifice on paper. But, we need that in the organization at this time, and, we could really use the high picks in the 1st 2 rounds this draft.

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    7 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

    Also, lets get Hunt back up here Hynes... WTF.

    Roster was at 23, Fleury wasn't going on IR, they needed the roster spot for The Wall just in case. He'll be back, but this is life on an ELC as a depth player.

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    Trade Fleury for Broberg + salary retention and a low round pick. Let's get this tank started. Broberg wants out and EDM needs a backup badly. Send Merrill to the A and cycle some young defenders. We could use a top ten pick badly and running this aging team into the ground in a race to the bottom of the draft chart is not attractive. 

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    7 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    So, I'd want eyes on Bankier, Beckman, Hunt, Lambos and The Wall. I might want to see cameos from Heidt, Haight, Petrovsky and Kumpulainen before season's end. Prepping for next season is a great goal, but it also requires sacrifice on paper. But, we need that in the organization at this time, and, we could really use the high picks in the 1st 2 rounds this draft.

    Mason Shaw has skated in a couple of games now with the Iowa Wild. The Minnesota Wild may want to give him some NHL shifts late in the year with Dewar if his recovery is going well.

    Guerin doesn't generally seem to believe in giving teenagers NHL ice time, so I'd bet against Heidt, Haight, Petrovsky and Kumpulainen getting NHL time, but I could see each of the other guys(Bankier, Beckman, Hunt, Lambos and Wallstedt) getting some NHL minutes as the season progresses.

    Hunter Haight is the oldest of the 4 teenagers, turning 20 in early April, followed by Petrovsky in August. They are playing decently in Canada, but it's a pretty big jump to NHL ice. Don't think Guerin believes in cameos for the youth.

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    The Wild have had such a weird year it's pretty up in the air yet. They have games left in the Central that could move them up if they start winning. It's possible Gus gets hot. That has happened before. Nashville just lost to FL. The middling teams are ahead of MN but not by a huge margin. Gotta wait and see.

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    It's true the Wild have had many bad losses but they've had some surprising wins too given the season's strange circumstances. I don't think the Wild really have a tank going. It looked bad but it also looks like they could still be in the hunt.

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    13 hours ago, MacGyver said:

    Last I looked the Wild are only a few points behind Calgary for the last wild card spot. This team will be in the playoffs. 

    They are 6 points back of Nashville, with a game in hand. So same as they've been since the post-coach boost fell off. IE: not making it. 

    The second half surge is likely incoming though, typical Wild >:(

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    10 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Mason Shaw has skated in a couple of games now with the Iowa Wild. The Minnesota Wild may want to give him some NHL shifts late in the year with Dewar if his recovery is going well.

    I'd probably agree with you on this, but let's remember that Shaw has an A contract, not a 2-way NHL contract. I would suggest that he brought a lot more to the Wild than just his 4th line play, Shaw was tenacious and a huge loss late last year. Losing both he and Ek just before the playoffs was a really big deal.

    Recovering from ACL surgery, to me, seems like more than just a few warmup games. I think that what happens to Shaw likely depends on the TDL and any college free agents we might pick up. We stand at 46/50 contracts, so theoretically there's room, but it may be earmarked for some other moves. Some of our prospects have not yet signed, but I think their deals might count more towards next season than be on the books for this one. 

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    On 1/22/2024 at 7:21 PM, MacGyver said:

    Last I looked the Wild are only a few points behind Calgary for the last wild card spot. This team will be in the playoffs. 

    You think so huh?

    what would be the point of eeking into the playoffs just to get smashed in the first round??

    this team is a dumpster fire. If they somehow pull it off, it would be beyond stupid but very Mn team like.

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