By Tom Schreier -
The Minnesota Wild are 9-2-2 since their 3-5-2 start, a promising sign for a team that appeared to be floundering for the second time in three years. The Wild had an identical 3-5-2 record through ten games in 2023-24, the year Bill Guerin fired Dean Evason and Minnesota missed the playoffs for the first time in five seasons.
Thanksgiving is typically a useful milestone to determine which teams will make the playoffs. Some teams will fall out of the postseason picture, but roughly 80% of the playoff schedule will be set by American Thanksgiving.
Minnesota has 28 points as of this writing, good for third place in the Central Division. They are only one point clear of the Vegas Golden Knights and Utah Mammoth, who occupy the Western Conference’s wild-card spots. However, they have four more points than the Chicago Blackhawks, their closest Central Division opponents.
In all likelihood, John Hynes will keep his job and the Wild will make the postseason again this year. The question with this team, as always, is whether they can win their first playoff series since 2014-15, when Zach Parise and Ryan Suter were productive players and not dead-cap hits. Therefore, we must look at how Minnesota rebounded from a slow start and if they’re equipped to win in the playoffs.
It’s mostly been goaltending. The Wild give up 2.78 goals per game, tied with the New York Islanders for tenth in the NHL. Meanwhile, Minnesota is scoring 2.87 goals per game, tied with the Columbus Blue Jackets for the eighth-worst in the league, and below the Detroit Red Wings and San Jose Sharks, who are tied with 2.91 goals per game.
Minnesota’s $136 million man, Kirill Kaprizov, is 15th in the league with 27 points. However, he’s only two points behind players like Leon Draisaitl and Cale Makar (29), and one behind Mark Scheifele and Mikko Rantanen (28). Matt Boldy has 25 points, tied with players like Brad Marchand, Dylan Larkin, and Nikita Kucherov.
The bigger issue is secondary scoring. 35-year-old Marcus Johnsson is Minnesota’s next-highest scorer with 19, 66th in the league, after scoring 34 in 72 games last year. He’s having a career renaissance, but the Wild are in trouble if he turns back into a pumpkin. Joel Eriksson Ek (15 points, 117th in the league) and Brock Faber (13, 149) are Minnesota’s next-highest scoring players.
Jesper Wallstedt and Filip Gustavsson have a .914 save percentage, third-best in the league behind the New York Rangers and Colorado Avalanche.
A year after the Wild nearly derailed his development by misleading him about where he would be playing, Jesper Wallstedt leads the NHL with a .935 save percentage. The former top prospect looks like a franchise goaltender again.
Filip Gustavsson’s .902 save percentage is 26th in the league. That’s disappointing for a player who signed a five-year, $34 million extension in the offseason. However, Gustavsson has played better recently. He had a .889 save percentage and a 2-5-1 record in his first eight games; he has a .918 save percentage and a 4-2-1 record in his last seven starts.
Goalies are mercurial and go through slumps. $34 million also isn’t starter money. It’s an encouraging sign that Wallstedt, 23, can Gustavsson up when he was playing poorly.
The primary learn from the first quarter of Minnesota’s season is that it has viable goaltending. That’s the foundation of a good roster. Teams with goalies like Wallstedt and Gustavsson can pick up points in the regular season and steal playoff series.
Minnesota’s bigger issue is roster construction. Contending teams typically have a star player, a complementary forward, a star defenseman, sound goaltending, and depth. Think of the Chicago dynasty that eliminated the Wild in the playoffs the last time they got out of the first round:
- Star: Patrick Kane
- Forward: Jonathan Toews
- Defense: Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook
- Goalie: Corey Crawford
The Colorado Avalanche leads the Western Conference with 37 points and has Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Martin Necas, and Scott Wedgewood with a .918 save percentage in net. When they won the Stanley Cup in 2021-22, they had a healthy Gabriel Landeskog and old friend Darcy Kuemper in net. Otherwise, it’s mostly the same cast of characters.
Last year, the Edmonton Oilers represented the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals. They have Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard. However, their goalies are holding them back. Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard have an .868 save percentage.
Sound goaltending can mask roster issues, while lousy goaltenders can sink a good roster. The Wild are riding Wallstedt and Gustavsson during their November surge. Whether they swoon later, let alone win in the playoffs, likely depends on whether players like Matt Boldy, Zeev Buium, and Brock Faber become true complementary players to Kirill Kaprizov or just quality depth.
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