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By Tony Abbott -
On Monday, Minnesota Wild fans got a big peek behind the curtain at the franchise's long-term plans. In an extended interview with Joe Smith and Michael Russo on The Athletic, Wild owner Craig Leipold confidently laid out his vision for the team's future. Mr. Leipold announced that the 2024-25 season is Year 2 of general manager Bill Guerin's five-year plan to win a Stanley Cup in Minnesota.
It's a bold declaration, partly because revealing such timelines tends to put a clock on a team's progress. The media and fanbase now can judge Minnesota's progress based on standards they have set for themselves. "Five-year plan" is a snappy, grabby phrase to hold onto if things don't work out.
An example of this almost backfiring in this market was the heat Minnesota Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah took after a disappointing season last year. His famous "competitive rebuild" became a punchline when a 7-10 record didn't look particularly competitive.
So, yes, the "five-year plan" might live on in infamy one day. But for now, it's easy to see why Mr. Leipold would find it necessary to put it into the world. He must ensure Wild fans stay on board with the team heading into a year of unknowns. His plan also appears to be part of an all-out effort to keep Kaprizov, their superstar player, bought into the long-term vision enough to sign an extension next offseason.
"He's the most important part of our five-year plan," said Mr. Leipold, "I think I can say that."
The plan buys a significant amount of time for Guerin, who's entering his sixth year as GM with "no heat" on his seat, according to ownership. That's good for the franchise's outlook. Having a hot seat usually inspires GMs to make moves geared toward keeping their job rather than creating a sustainable winner.
However, a crucial contradiction is at the core of Guerin's plan. In Smith and Russo's article, the GM is quoted as saying that the end of the five-year plan is when the real competition will begin for Minnesota. "It's about becoming a true contender," Guerin told The Athletic about his plan. "I don't want to try to fool anybody. I don't think we've been serious contenders in the past. I just don't. And we're trying to get there." (Emphasis mine.)
No one can argue that Minnesota has dealt with unique financial hardships over the past few years. The ongoing weight of the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts has been the story in St. Paul for the past three seasons and will be again in 2024-25. Having around $15 million less in cap space to play with than most other teams is a legitimate handicap, and Guerin's front office has done well to stay competitive in two of those three seasons.
Guerin often speaks openly and honestly, eschewing GM-speak more than most of his peers. That's admirable at times. But "I don't think we've been serious contenders in the past" is a red flag when much of his five-year plan relies on that core of players.
We're not talking about Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy, Brock Faber, or Jonas Brodin, who will still be under contract by Year 5 of the plan. Those players are franchise cornerstones who will be necessary to complement and elevate on a team alongside Kaprizov. But those aren't the only names slated to be in Minnesota by Year 5.
In that pivotal 2027-28 season, 31-year-old Jake Middleton ($4.35 million), 36-year-old Marcus Foligno ($4 million), and 34-year-old Freddy Gaudreau ($2.1 million) will still be under contract. Smith and Russo correctly point out that long-term contracts to those veteran players must be viewed in a new light with the revelation of Mr. Leipold and Guerin's plan, as was this offseason's signing of Yakov Trenin, which also extends to Year 5.
If Kaprizov re-signs according to plan, that gives the Wild nine players who currently form the core of a team that Guerin doesn't consider "true contenders." Good management fosters stability, and the idea is that free-agent signings and prospects will complement these players. Still, seven members of this group (all but Faber and Trenin) have had multiple postseasons together and were unable to advance, even with good players like Kevin Fiala, Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon, Matt Dumba, and Ryan Hartman in the fold.
It's reasonable to keep the franchise cornerstones around for the plan's duration. Still, is prioritizing aging role players like Middleton, Foligno, and Gaudreau keeping too much of the non-contender version of the Wild DNA around? That's a worry.
Another huge concern is that the plan is five years long, starting with last season. The plan feels like it started about two seasons too late. Granted, Minnesota's done a good job of getting in premium young talent before hatching "the plan," giving them a head start with Boldy, Faber, Marco Rossi, Jesper Wallstedt, Marat Khusnutdinov, Liam Öhgren, Danila Yurov, and more. That somewhat helps their timetable.
Still, the Wild don't have three more years to convince Kaprizov to stay. Next fall is the conservative deadline, and it may be much closer to July 1. Mr. Leipold is prepared to make a big splash then. "Next July 1 is going to be like Christmas," he promised on October 1. "We're going to have money available. We're going to have the resources available to do what we need to do to get back to Wild hockey."
The extensions mentioned above, in addition to contracts the Wild gave Zuccarello ($4.13 million) and Hartman ($4 million) as part of their plan, somewhat constrict Minnesota's flexibility. They're still projected to have around $20 million in cap space, but they must spread that money around eight roster spots. It's an open question as to how big of a splash they can make.
Unless The Plan involves jumping to "True Contender" status in Year 3, that might be a tough sell to Kaprizov. The Wild can offer him the most money, but will they offer him the best chance to win? Telling him next offseason, We're in Year 3 of a five-year plan is a significantly different message than telling him on July 3, Sign now, we're ready to contend.
Can you convince Kaprizov to stay while implicitly telling him he must wait two more years until Minnesota's ready to compete?
The hope is that they can. The State of Hockey has waited so long to see a talent like Kaprizov come along. It's desperate to see him stay and for the team to give him the tools he needs to compete in St. Paul. Mr. Leipold and Guerin are taking this seriously, but it remains to be seen if their plan can withstand its core conflict.
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