The Wild Will Regress If They Can't Improve Their Anemic Offense

Even at the tail-end of a seven-game win streak that probably saved John Hynes’ job, the Minnesota Wild can’t help but lose to one of the worst teams in the league for the past 15 years.

In their last four games heading into tonight’s matchup with the Edmonton Oilers, the Wild: 

• Beat the Winnipeg Jets 3-0.
• Scraped by the Chicago Blackhawks 4-3 in overtime. 
• Had a cathartic 3-2 shootout win over the Colorado Avalanche.
• Lost to the Buffalo Sabres 3-2 in a shootout, snapping their seven-game winning streak.

It’s easy to focus on the positives. Jesper Wallstedt had a shutout in Winnipeg, and the Wild beat a divisional foe who had won nine straight games against them! Colorado has more points than any other team in the league! Kirill Kaprizov is an Avs killer, Matt Boldy is looking like Robin to Kaprizov’s Batman, and Brock Faber is scoring again!

That’s all well and good, but consider that the San Jose Sharks have beaten the Wild twice this year, including immediately before Minnesota’s seven-game win streak. They’re a bubble team looking to break out of their rebuild phase. Chicago also nearly took one from the Wild. 

Teams like the Sharks and Blackhawks tanked rather than rebuild, sneaking into the playoffs and losing in the first round, as the Wild did during the worst of their cap penalties. San Jose and Chicago are led by dynamic superstars, Macklin Celebrini and Connor Bedard, and they will likely have more dynamic talent come up through their system because they’ve been drafting higher than the Wild.

Chicago eliminated the Wild in the second round of the playoffs in 2013-14 and 2014-15. San Jose represented the Western Conference in the 2015-16 season. Once they realized that their old cores had aged out, they tanked and rebuilt while the Wild dithered in the first round with no chance to truly contend because of the Zach Parise, Ryan Suter buyout penalties.

The Blackhawks and Sharks likely will be waiting for the Wild by the end of Bill Guerin’s five-year plan, threatening to eliminate them from the playoffs as bona fide contenders.

What about the Sabres? They haven’t made the postseason since 2010-11, and they have the fewest points in the Eastern Conference this year. The Wild chalked that loss up to an emotional letdown after beating Colorado the day before.

“It’s hard I think from a mental aspect, but that’s the challenge in this league to come from a game where there’s hype before the game, two of the best teams, two of the hottest teams in the league, and you’re amped up and then the next time you gotta play a team that doesn’t look good in the standings,” Nico Sturm said after losing to Buffalo.

“But as you saw today, there’s no easy teams in the NHL. We all know that, but that’s a challenge in this league to show up 24 hours or less sometimes when your emotions come from the highest highs to the lowest lows. 

There’s no easy teams in the NHL, but there are teams that win more often than they lose and vice versa. Then there’s the Wild, perpetually stuck in the middle. 

They can tell themselves that they’re on the Avs’ level after beating them in a shootout to win their seventh-straight game. But they’re not. Colorado scores 4.12 goals per game and gives up 2.08 – that’s a winning formula.

Meanwhile, Minnesota scores 2.85 goals per game, slightly more than the Philadelphia Flyers (2.83), San Jose Sharks (2.81), and Columbus Blue Jackets (2.80). The New York Islanders and Detroit Red Wings (2.88) score more than the Wild. So do the Vancouver Canucks, Utah Mammoth, and Buffalo Sabres [italics] (2.96). 

Philadelphia, Columbus, and Buffalo are some of the worst teams in hockey. The rest reside on the bubble with Minnesota. The Wild may have won seven straight, but they’re only a .500 team now (14-7-5, or 14-12 in other sports). They’re likely nothing more than a bubble team and probably will lose in the first round again. 

Even if the Wild win a playoff series this year, they don’t look like a true contender. Their stellar goaltending is masking their lack of scoring. Marcus Johansson is their third-leading scorer, and he’s 35, liable to regress, and shouldn’t be part of Guerin’s five-year plan. Faber is their next-highest leading scorer.

Losing to Buffalo isn’t a mystery or a fluke. It’s the product of Minnesota’s lack of offense and a harbinger for what’s to come. Cathartic victories and epic letdowns. The Wild can beat anyone on any given night, but they can also lose ot the worst teams in the league. They’re not talented enough to sustain success.

The Wild are always stuck in the middle because they refuse to leave it.