By Tom Schreier -
Bill Guerin had to have gotten antsy at the trade deadline. The Minnesota Wild general manager saw the Dallas Stars trade for and extend Mikko Rantanen, the Colorado Avalanche add Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle, and the Winnipeg Jets add Brandon Tanev and Luke Schenn. Guerin had to have wanted to get in on that arm’s race.
Instead, the Wild traded a second-round pick for Gustav Nyquist and moved Marat Khusnutdinov in the Justin Brazeau deal.
“Yeah, you want to be involved, but you know what? We’re just at a different stage than those teams,” Guerin said, referring to the final couple months of the Wild’s cap hell.
“We’ll have our day, but it was the same thing this summer when you’re watching other teams load up. For some reason, we still have to play the games. If we’re going by that, we might as well just pack our s— and go home. But I think we’ll show up and play the games and see how it checks out.”
You can hear the frustration in his voice, but also a hint of discipline. Guerin could have put Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Jonas Brodin on long-term injured reserve (LTIR) to free up cap space. In doing so, he could have pulled off a blockbuster trade to keep pace with Dallas, Colorado, and Winnipeg in the Central.
That would have meant Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, or Brodin – depending on who he puts on LTIR – wouldn’t have been able to play this season. Still, the Wild have a 97% chance of making the playoffs, even with only one regulation win in their six games since the deadline. They don’t need Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, or Brodin to make the postseason.
Instead, he went half-in. Guerin still robbed Minnesota’s cap-hell-less future to try to win in the seventh ring this season. He traded a second-round pick, which has a 34% chance of turning into an NHL player, for Nyquist, 35. He also traded Khusnutdinov, 22, who already has two goals for the Boston Bruins, for Brazeau, 27. Nyquist has one assist and no goals in eight games for the Wild; Brazeau has no points in six games.
Put another way, the Wild traded a pick that has a one-third chance to turn into Jason Zucker or Jordan Greenway for a 35-year-old player who had 21 points in 57 games for the Nashville Predators. They also traded a 22-year-old Russian rocket for a player who may not have the footspeed to play in Minnesota’s system.
The Wild couldn’t go all-in, so they waded into the kiddie pool. The problem is they will drown once they reach the deep end. They don’t have the skill or mettle to compete with the Western Conference’s best teams. They’ll occasionally grind out a win against the Los Angeles Kings, but they’re just as capable of losing 5-1 to the St. Louis Blues.
Coming unwound is in their DNA, which isn’t a good indicator that they’ll play well in the pressure-filled playoffs.
If Kaprizov hightails it out of here at the end of his contract, it’s because the Wild had no plan other than to make the playoffs at all costs. Minnesota is in Year 2 of Guerin’s five-year plan. Why are they investing in a flawed team at the deadline? They will almost certainly make the postseason without trading away future assets. And what’s the worst that would happen if they don’t? They get a higher pick to bolster their second-ranked farm system? There are worse things than cost-controlled talent for a team that has multiple long-term contracts on the books.
Minnesota’s other option was to go all-in this year. Put some combination of Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, and Brodin – or all three – on LTIR and try to compete with Dallas, Colorado, and Winnipeg. Michael Russo speculates that the Avs got Brock Nelson for the equivalent of Danila Yurov and a first-round pick. The Wild were wise to pass on that, especially in Year 2 of a five-year plan.
“Did you see the prices on guys?” Guerin said. “I’m not here — and I’m not being a wiseass — I’m not here to make your trade deadline better. I’m running a business. I’m running a team. We have assets. Our time will come.
“This is not so you guys can write great stuff on trade deadline day and have an exciting day. We’ve had a plan going for four years. And I’m not going to screw that up just being shortsighted. That’s where I am.”
Guerin doesn’t need to entertain people at the deadline. Still, it would be nice if he built an exciting team that could win in the playoffs.
The problem with Minnesota’s approach isn’t that they lacked discipline. It’s that they didn’t choose a lane. Going all-in wasn’t wise, so they should have sat out this deadline. Instead, he went half-in on a team that’s always stuck in the middle.
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