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  • The Wild Need This Version Of Gustavsson To Solve Their Goalie Situation


    Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-Imagn Images
    Aaron Heckmann

    The Minnesota Wild need this version of Filip Gustavsson to reach their full potential and make a playoff run this season.

    The 26-year-old Swede is off to a better-than-anticipated start this season, posting a .948 save percentage and 1.66 goals against average through three starts. Gustavsson is 2-0-1 and is playing like the confident and composed netminder he showed flashes of during his first season in Minnesota in 2022-23.

    That was evident in the first week of the season, and it rang true again on Tuesday night. Gustavsson stopped 27 of 28 shots (a .964 save percentage) to help the Wild top the St. Louis Blues 4-1 on the road to improve to 2-0-2. Gustavsson again looked sharp, stopping 1.92 goals above expected in all situations and making five high-danger saves, according to Natural Stat Trick. 

    One of Gustavsson’s best saves of the night came on the penalty kill midway through the second period when he managed to make an impressive stick save on two-time 30-goal scorer Jordan Kyrou’s one-timer from the bottom of the left circle off a cross-slot pass.

    But the highlight of Gustavsson’s performance Tuesday night and the epitome of his encouraging start to his third season in Minnesota wasn’t a save – it was a goal.

    After making a routine stop on Pavel Buchnevich’s slap shot from outside the blue line, Gustavsson took a shot at the empty net and buried it.

    Gustavsson became the first goalie in Wild history to score a goal and the 15th goalie in NHL history. Evgeni Nabokov and Martin Brodeur are the only other goalies in NHL history who have previously recorded a power play goal. The last goalie to score was the Penguins’ Tristian Jarry on Nov. 30, 2023.

    Gustavsson had a reward in mind for his goal.

    “I should be in on the power play meeting now,” Gustavsson quipped in a postgame interview with ESPN’s Emily Kaplan.

    Right now, Gustavsson is ahead of some elite company — such as Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, and Alex Ovechkin — in the goals department.

    Once again, Gustavsson gave the Wild a chance to win the game. And the lone goal he allowed came after the Wild carelessly turned the puck over in their own zone, which led to Mathieu Joseph beating Gustavsson blocker side from below the right faceoff dot with 9:50 remaining in the contest.

    Minnesota’s opponents have tested Gustavsson, and he must stay sharp and build off of this early success. 

    In addition to his .948 SV%, Gustavsson has saved 3.5 goals above expected in all situations through three starts, according to MoneyPuck, which ranks sixth among goalies with two or more starts. According to Natural Stat Trick, he has also saved all 16 high-danger shots he’s faced. Furthermore, Gustavsson has only allowed two five-on-five markers and five goals overall.

    Gustavsson has been a crucial factor behind the Wild’s strong start, where they grabbed six of a possible eight points in the first four games. And Gustavsson’s goal in St. Louis perfectly represented his confidence and strong start.

    The Wild need this version of Gustavsson. The same one that broke out in the 2022-23 season after getting traded from the Ottawa Senators to Minnesota. That year, Gustavsson went 22-9-7 and finished with a .931 save percentage and 2.10 goals against average (both ranked second in the NHL). According to Natural Stat Trick, he saved 18.8 goals above expected in all situations that year.

    After this season, Gustavsson has one more year left on his contract at $3.75 million. He played like he could become a bonafide No.1 goalie in his first season with Minnesota. However, he struggled in Year 2 with the Wild, finishing with a .899 save percentage and allowing 11.44 goals above expected in all situations, according to Natural Stat Trick. 

    Gustavsson wasn’t good enough, and the Wild couldn’t depend on him like they did the previous year. As a result, they ended up re-signing Marc-Andre Fleury for a one-year extension.

    According to The Athletic, the Wild tried to move Gustavsson this summer. However, their efforts to trade him were unsuccessful. That looks like it could be for the best, even though they must carry three goalies this year. Highly coveted goalie prospect Jesper Wallstedt needs more NHL action ahead of his first full NHL season in 2025-26.

    It will be a great story if Gustavsson continues to build on his early success this season. He has turned things around and can be a difference-maker. The idea of sharing the net with Fleury and Wallstedt may have motivated Gustavsson.

    Regardless, Gustavsson is playing like a goalie who doesn’t want to leave the crease. And if this trend continues, the Wild will have to give him most of the starts, limiting Fleury and Wallstedt’s usage. 

    The Wild have seen Gustavsson at his best and his worst. Now, he has an opportunity to prove he can be the No.1 goalie he showed flashes of in 2022-23 — not the widely inconsistent goalie who struggled last year.

    If Gustavsson continues his early success, it would relieve the team's uncertainty about which version of him they will get each game and alleviate any concerns about the current goalie situation.

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    Gustavsson wasn’t good enough, and the Wild couldn’t depend on him like they did the previous year. As a result, they ended up re-signing Marc-Andre Fleury for a one-year extension.

    I don't think SillyG signed MAF because GusBus wasn't looking like he could carry the load.  I think SillyG signed MAF because MAF didn't want to retire and SillyG wanted to take care of one of his guys.

    I'm stoked GusBus looks good so far, but remember last season where in the opener he stopped all 41 shots against FLA for an opening night shutout?  Or then 2 games later (after letting TOR drop 7 goals on 33 shots) pulled off an OT winner by stopping 49 of the 54 shots that CBJ threw at him?  Or look at last March, when he went 3-1-1 with a 1.42gaa, 0.947sv%. 

    I'm all for the excitement of GusBus being back, and at least his confidence is back, but let's temper some of the expectations here that this pace is going to be sustainable all season, especially if Spurgeon is not 100% and Brodin is to get injured again

     

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    It's a exercise in futility in trying to determine what you are going to get from any goaltender in any given game. You roll with the hot goaltender until he isn't hot anymore and that happens with all of them. You are buying hope with any goal tender in any game. There are only a handful or less that you can determine with any probability what you are going to get. 

    Wallstedt has got to be getting frustrated. MAF is clearly in his way for getting any NHL reps. This is on Billy because this was one of Billy's emotional decisions. Wallstedt is no longer getting slow walked he is getting blocked. The clock is ticking and we need to find out if he is the next coming or if he is the next Spencer Knight. 

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    43 minutes ago, MacGyver said:

    Wallstedt has got to be getting frustrated. MAF is clearly in his way for getting any NHL reps. This is on Billy because this was one of Billy's emotional decisions. Wallstedt is no longer getting slow walked he is getting blocked. The clock is ticking and we need to find out if he is the next coming or if he is the next Spencer Knight. 

    The Wild already extended him 2x$2.2M...I get that professional athletes are competitors at the highest level, but that contract seems to suggest the team's confidence in him and that he's gonna eat here pretty soon.

    If we're in a position where both Flower and GusBus are playing like doo-doo and Wall doesn't get the reigns then we can have a discussion about 'being blocked' but so far, it hasn't been the goaltending that's cost the wild points this season...

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    I called the unforced error of signing Fleury right when they announced the signing. It wasn't a business decision. Anyone saying Fleury was equivalent to the Bus last year wasn't watching close enough. Gus played every hard matchup against the best, got rained on while our defense was down 2 of the top 4 and still ended with about the same save percentage as Fleury.

    I still don't understand why they didn't offer Fleury a assistant coach job instead. His stats had been falling off sharply the past two years and he looked like he lost a step. I love Fleury, he is a champ and a great addition to the locker room but he is no longer able to pull on the rope and Billy G needs to be able to have a hard conversation with guys instead of handing out more money to guys who will not contribute to the future. 

    Now we are left with Wallstedt likely getting few games and needing to shuttle back and forth to Iowa, which is anything but ideal for him getting settled and focusing on playing the game. 

    Billy G just loves to be a contrarian to what has been shown to work in this league. League gets younger and faster, we get older and slower. League ups the level of skill on the ice and we backfill with some grinders. 6.25M on our books this offseason could have bought a pretty decent skill player instead of Trenin, who has looked pretty lack luster thus far.  

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    4 minutes ago, MrCheatachu said:

    The Wild already extended him 2x$2.2M...I get that professional athletes are competitors at the highest level, but that contract seems to suggest the team's confidence in him and that he's gonna eat here pretty soon.

    If we're in a position where both Flower and GusBus are playing like doo-doo and Wall doesn't get the reigns then we can have a discussion about 'being blocked' but so far, it hasn't been the goaltending that's cost the wild points this season...

    Agree and I think the contract was also to avoid an offer sheet (ie STL > EDM) next summer avoiding a scenario where we wait 5 years for Wallzy to become a #1 and when he finally does he gets stolen from us, or we get ransom'd to overpay him to keep him

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    20 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

    I called the unforced error of signing Fleury right when they announced the signing. It wasn't a business decision. Anyone saying Fleury was equivalent to the Bus last year wasn't watching close enough. Gus played every hard matchup against the best, got rained on while our defense was down 2 of the top 4 and still ended with about the same save percentage as Fleury.

    I still don't understand why they didn't offer Fleury a assistant coach job instead. His stats had been falling off sharply the past two years and he looked like he lost a step. I love Fleury, he is a champ and a great addition to the locker room but he is no longer able to pull on the rope and Billy G needs to be able to have a hard conversation with guys instead of handing out more money to guys who will not contribute to the future. 

    Now we are left with Wallstedt likely getting few games and needing to shuttle back and forth to Iowa, which is anything but ideal for him getting settled and focusing on playing the game. 

    Billy G just loves to be a contrarian to what has been shown to work in this league. League gets younger and faster, we get older and slower. League ups the level of skill on the ice and we backfill with some grinders. 6.25M on our books this offseason could have bought a pretty decent skill player instead of Trenin, who has looked pretty lack luster thus far.  

    Billy can't let go, it's his biggest downfall as a GM and will likely be his undoing eventually.  Everyone loves Flower, but he is finished.  He'll probably play a few nice games this year, but his job should be to mentor Wally when he's here and keep the bench warm while Gus gets those #1 amount of starts.  

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    4 minutes ago, Outskated said:

    I am very glad that they didn't trade him.  Gus and Wally will be a good tandem next year and only eating up $5.75m in cap space.  

    And best case scenario both goalies become #1's and one of them becomes a trade asset to return a top six forward

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    3 minutes ago, Outskated said:

    his job should be to mentor Wally when he's here

    I assume this was the Guerin plan all along.  And to sell Fleury jersey's (keeping Uncle Leo happy) during his farewell season.  50% hockey decision, 50% business decision.

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    I was under the impression that this was going to be close to a 50/50 split, or maybe 33/33/33 split. I wonder about the St. Louis game, should that have been Fleury's? Or, was this going to be The Wall's season debut?

    I believe in riding the hot goalie but 3 games into a season does not make a hot or cold goalie, he's just trending that way. A hot goalie is mentioned after about 5 great starts.

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    3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I was under the impression that this was going to be close to a 50/50 split

    I was guessing Gus would be getting 45+ starts and Fleury would get no more than 35. Wall might get 15-20 if he can eat into Fleury's share.

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    On 10/18/2024 at 10:25 PM, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    I was guessing Gus would be getting 45+ starts and Fleury would get no more than 35. Wall might get 15-20 if he can eat into Fleury's share.

    It's hard to do that from Des Moines. Especially when that is your turn to start.

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    2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    It's hard to do that from Des Moines. Especially when that is your turn to start.

    They are only 5 games in and Fleury has 1 start. I don't think turns were necessarily decided before the season began other than games 1 & 2.

    Gus has shown he deserves to be starting regularly. Wallstedt allowed 5 goals in his AHL start.  Fleury allowed 4 regulation goals in his start.  Gus has not allowed more than 2 in any game, and has just one game where he allowed more than 1 goal in regulation.

    If they want to make the playoffs, Gus will be getting a majority of the starts when healthy. I don't know exactly how serious Guerin was about trading him, but the idea of going into the season with the oldest goalie in the league and a rookie with just 3 starts always seemed like an awful plan if making the playoffs was something he wanted from his team and it's always been what he says is an expectation.

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    I don't think MN has any huge issues right now. The still are small and have a lot of Euros statistically but the results have been good. Spurgeon's health and the lack of productivity so far from the role-player vets has been lackluster. 

    Overall the Wild have not totally gel'd and the PK was good against CBJ. They just need to keep building chemistry and confidence. The Jets and Blues games were good for that. 

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