The Wild Need More From Their Depth To Vanquish Vegas

The story of the Minnesota Wild's series is how their top line is bashing their Vegas Golden Knights counterparts. It's almost impossible to say more about how Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek have imposed their will on a 94-point center in Jack Eichel and one of the best two-way wingers in the game in Mark Stone. Both star Knight players have dimmed for these first three games, scoring zero points, while Kaprizov and Boldy have each put up multiple points in every game.

Bruce Cassidy has had zero answers to this line through three games, but we can't expect that status quo to last. Cassidy is 10-9 lifetime in playoff series, and only two of those losses came in 5 games or fewer, both to the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Wild can't rest on their laurels because Cassidy has overcome 2-1 series deficits to win a series twice.

In other words, he usually figures things out to some degree, even when he loses.

So be prepared for Cassidy to find a way to slow down Kaprizov and Boldy sometime soon. When that day comes, John Hynes and the Wild must prepare. What's more, they need to have a second punch.

Arguably, that's already been the case through Minnesota's two wins. In Game 2, the Wild's second line scored when Marcus Johansson sprung Mats Zuccarello for a one-on-one chance with Adin Hill. On the third line, Marcus Foligno crashed the net and cashed in a Ryan Hartman centering pass. The fourth line got into the action in Game 3, when Yakov Trenin found Marco Rossi for a goal in the slot.

Hynes has also used his depth lines as battering rams in a war of attrition. Foligno leads the playoffs with 27 hits, and it's not even close. Jake Neighbours is second, and third place has 18. On the fourth line, Trenin has 15 hits and Justin Brazeau -- despite averaging under two per game through his career -- has 14 of his own. 

But while they have the goal advantage and are doing some things well, Hynes must figure out how to get more out of his other three lines. Loading up Minnesota's top line has paid dividends for them, but it's also leaving them vulnerable to Vegas' depth.

The Wild have been relatively even with the Knights at 5-on-5 through this series, getting 46.2% of the expected goal share. It's not great, but of the eight playoff series in Round 1, it's the closest to a 50/50 split. But that's all due to Minnesota's top line, which is controlling a whopping 67.1% of the expected goals when they're on the ice at 5-on-5.

As much as Hynes is riding his top line at even strength, they're only getting about a third of the 5-on-5 minutes. That means the Wild are only getting 42.1% of the expected goals for two-thirds of the game, allowing Vegas to get the better of the chances whenever the Kaprizov line is off the ice.

On a long enough timeline, that dam is going to break. It might not even have to be that long of a timeline, either. Pavel Dorofeyev and Tomas Hertl are in Vegas' second line, and they were the Knights' top-two goal-scorers with 35 and 32 goals, respectively. They're also top-two on the team in shots through three games, with 12 and 9, respectively. At 5-on-5, Vegas is out-shooting Minnesota 26-9 whenever their line is on the ice.

The Golden Knights' fourth line is also showing its strength. Brett Howden and Nicolas Roy are sneaky-good players who can make things happen if teams aren't careful, and their line with Keegan Kolesar is out-shooting Minnesota 12-5 through 21 5-on-5 minutes. They've also got a 1-0 advantage on the scoresheet.

That's not enough for the Wild to knock the Knights out in 5, leaving them open for (yet another) blown series lead. Again, Cassidy's only two losses in 5 games or fewer came against the Lightning. Why? Those Tampa teams always, always, always had a second punch. And very often, a third.

It was never just Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, and Nikita Kucherov leading the way. Those Lightning teams had Ondrej Palat, Yanni Gourde, Alex Killorn, Anthony Cirelli, and Tyler Johnson in the back. That's not to mention players who were only there for one of those years -- J.T. Miller, Ryan Callahan, and Blake Coleman, to name a few.

Obviously, a capped-out Wild team isn't going to ice a lineup equal to some of the deepest teams in recent memory. And that's perhaps even more true with Johansson possibly hurt for Game 4. But still, Hynes has to find ways to get more offense out of his bottom nine.

One way to do that could be to get Hynes' 60-point center back into the game. Rossi showed signs of life in Game 3 with Trenin and Brazeau, but the line has gotten buried in Games 2 and 3, controlling just 18.3% of the expected goal share. Minnesota's fourth line hasn't been effective enough to justify Rossi playing for under 11 minutes a night there.

The good news is that Hynes can elevate Rossi without sacrificing the physical presence that Trenin and Brazeau are bringing. Foligno and Ryan Hartman are having a strong series, and their forechecking is paired with an offensive ability that greatly outweighs their fourth-line counterparts. Nothing would be missed by moving Gustav Nyquist -- a complete non-factor for the Wild this season -- either to the fourth line or out of the lineup altogether.

Foligno-Rossi-Hartman suddenly becomes a line that can throw that second punch, both figuratively and, if necessary, literally. Foligno and Rossi finished the season ranked first and second on the team in Wins Above Replacement (though a full season of Kaprizov would have blown by them both) during the regular season, and Hartman was eighth. All three players were positives for the team in both offense and defense at even-strength, and they combined for 49 goals.

Going further down the lineup, it gets trickier, but that could be mitigated by starting to lean on a loaded-up top-six in a similar fashion to what's going on with the first line. That's feasible, especially with Games 4 and 6 at home, where Hynes can set the matchups. If they can take both those games by optimizing their matchups, series over.

But whatever Hynes does, he can't solely rely on the status quo. It wasn't under Hynes, but the Wild have been there, done that when it comes to blowing a series lead. Cassidy is too good not to make adjustments, and Hynes will have to preemptively adapt to Vegas to stay ahead in this chess match.