By Tony Abbott -
The Minnesota Wild have made it no secret that they were interested in pending free agent Brock Nelson. People have identified the Warroad native as someone the Wild would love to give a homecoming to for some time. On some level, you get it. Nelson's a big, fast center who's scored 25 goals or more in every season (except for the 56-game COVID season) since 2017-18.
Now that we're T-minus-8 weeks until free agency -- the State of Hockey's promised Christmas Morning -- the rumors of the Wild and Nelson will continue to intensify unless Nelson re-signs with the Colorado Avalanche, or a team that trades for his rights. While fans may have been disappointed that the Avs swooped in to swipe Nelson while the Wild stood still at the deadline, it wound up being a best-case scenario.
Instead of Minnesota paying through the nose for a Nelson rental, their biggest rival gave up top prospect Calum Ritchie and a first-round pick for his services. The Wild also avoided the Avs in Round 1 of the playoffs, so Colorado's deadline splash didn't affect them. Instead, Bill Guerin and Co. got to watch from afar as Nelson got thrust into a tough playoff matchup with the Dallas Stars.
And you know they were watching closely, because Guerin declared his intentions to find centers at his end-of-season press conference. "I think [Joel Eriksson Ek] needs a little help. He's in a battle every single night; there's no easy nights for him, you know? So I think... we could create some help, there."
It's hard to develop a better scenario for another team to test-drive Nelson. Dallas is here to stay as a force in the Central Division. Roope Hintz, Mikko Rantanen, Thomas Harley, and Wyatt Johnston are under 29 and still in their prime. So is Jake Oettinger, 26, who is a top goalie in the NHL. And of course, that doesn't even mention 25-year-olds Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson, who were both absent in Round 1.
So, how did Nelson do?
Not great. The vaunted goal-scorer finished his series with zero goals and four assists on 12 shots on goal. Relative to his teammates, his possession numbers were negative at 5-on-5. And in big, big moments, he came up empty. He failed to block Mikko Rantanen's first goal, which sparked a comeback from down 2-0, and was rated as the Avs' worst player in Game 7. If you care about faceoffs (and you shouldn't), he went 44.1% in the dot for the series.
You must be careful not to judge a player's worth by a single playoff series. Nelson has 27 goals and 54 points in 85 career playoff games, which basically matches his regular-season output on a per-game basis. He's scored two series-winning goals, a striking feather in his cap. He's no choke artist and has helped multiple New York Islanders teams make deep playoff runs.
Still, Guerin's job now is to ensure the Wild get past the Stars, and the Colorado Avalanche, and the Winnipeg Jets, and the Vegas Golden Knights, and whatever Eastern Conference juggernaut shows up in the Stanley Cup Final. Targeting Nelson would be declaring that he's part of the secret sauce the Wild need to achieve that goal.
Well, Nelson just showed he wasn't part of that secret sauce for Colorado. And that's on a team with Nathan MacKinnon, one of the best playoff performers of all time, Cale Makar, and more.
Why would it be better on the Wild, especially as Nelson (who turns 34 in October) enters his mid-30s?
One way it might be is if Minnesota used Nelson as a third-line center. He had the third-most 5-on-5 ice time with the Avs in the playoffs, behind only MacKinnon and Martin Necas. It stands to reason that he'd be more effective lower in the lineup, slotting behind Eriksson Ek and Marco Rossi.
But that's a huge part of the problem: If Nelson arrives in Minnesota, it's almost definitely not going to be a move that bolsters their center depth. Signing Nelson won't be additive; it'll be part of (potentially) the worst move in franchise history.
You may have noticed: The Wild look fairly done with Rossi for... reasons? With Rossi an RFA and needing a new contract, and the Wild showing no faith in him during the playoffs, it feels inevitable that the two sides will move on this offseason.
If Nelson is a replacement for Rossi at center, it's a big downgrade, plain and simple. Is Nelson bigger and faster than Rossi? Absolutely. Does it translate to a greater on-ice impact? It does not.
That's no knock on Nelson, who is a solid offense-driving player. But Rossi's impact is simply too big to ignore... or at least, it should be. There are just five centers (500-plus faceoffs) who rate higher in Offensive and Defensive Goals Above Replacement (GAR) this season, per Evolving-Hockey. Here's the list:
Meanwhile, Nelson doesn't replicate what Rossi does on either side of the ice. The same is also true for pending Florida Panthers UFA Sam Bennett, the other top center who's likely to change teams.
If the Wild have indeed burned their bridges with Rossi and need to replace him, the bar to do so is much, much higher than Nelson. That center replacement will have to be at the level of an Elias Pettersson, or another center who no one can argue isn't a legitimate No. 1. If the Wild donate Rossi to Goodwill, all they have to open on Christmas Morning is Nelson, that's a massive step back from the organization, whether the front office believes it or not.
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