By Tony Abbott -
When we wrote about Marco Rossi's game evolving during the season on Friday, we weren't expecting him to add a new wrinkle one day later. But that's the kind of thing that happens when you watch a player take "The Leap," so we've got to write more about it.
On Saturday morning, Mats Zuccarello instructed the 23-year-old center in practice: Pass more. With Kirill Kaprizov's 23 goals out of the lineup, it's hard to fathom why you'd tell someone to score fewer goals. However, Rossi took the advice, and it worked like a dream. Rossi was dominant offensively despite having zero shots on goal, getting assists on all four goals in a 4-0 blanking of a 23-14-2 Carolina Hurricanes team.
His passes were so smooth and on-point that you'd never know this was only Rossi's fourth multi-assist game in 143 career games. And, like most dominant outings, he had multiple passes that easily could have resulted in more goals. No one's about to turn up their nose at a young center on pace for 30 goals, but this was a coming-out party for the version of Rossi that led the OHL in assists during his draft year.
Our Kaprizov-less Rossi point count is up to 11 in six games (these past five, plus November 23). His Kaprizov-like run as the team's offensive catalyst is vaulting him into the conversation of being among the best players in the NHL.
Evolving-Hockey has two stats to measure a player's performance: Goals Above Replacement and xGoals Above Replacement. By both models, Rossi is a top-20 player in the league this year, worth 3.4 points in each metric. The only other NHLers in the top 20 in both metrics are Leon Draisaitl, Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar, Tom Wilson, Lucas Raymond, and Brandon Hagel.
That's elite company, and it gets better when we look at it through a historical lens. The low-hanging fruit is how good Rossi has been compared to young players throughout Minnesota Wild history. We get it, it's a low bar to clear. Still, Rossi finds himself in elite company when you stack up his first 40 games against every Under-24 player in franchise history.
When you're out-pacing Rookie Kaprizov and Matt Boldy on a list... that's nice. That's real nice.
Then you look at the all-around value Rossi's provided to the team, and he's got numbers that look an awful lot like the top centers of the last decade and a half. Let's look at the top seasons from an age-22 center since the 2007-08 season (Evolving-Hockey's age cut-off is by draft year, hence why he's 22 here) and see where Rossi stacks up.
GAR/60 By An Age-22 Center:
- Alex Wennberg, 2017-18: 0.964
- Jonathan Toews, 2011-12: 0.962
- Brayden Point, 2018-19: 0.941
- Matt Duchene, 2013-14: 0.916
- MARCO ROSSI, 2024-25: 0.901
- Auston Matthews, 2020-21: 0.859
- Sidney Crosby, 2009-10: 0.848
- David Krejčí, 2008-09: 0.842
- Nathan MacKinnon, 2017-18: 0.806
- Ryan Getzlaf, 2007-08: 0.804
Obviously, Wennberg is the big outlier here (and his drop-off can be explained by a history of concussions), but it's more enlightening to look at the rest of the list. Crosby and Toews are slam-dunk Hall of Famers. Matthews and MacKinnon are Hart Trophy winners. Ryan Getzlaf had over 1,000 points in his career, and Duchene (846 points at age 34) might join him in that group. Brayden Point has almost 600 points before turning 29.
Outside of Wennberg, the "worst case" in the top 10 is Krejčí, the No. 2 center behind Patrice Bergeron on a perennially contending Boston Bruins team that won a Stanley Cup. Still, 786 points in 1,032 games is nothing to sneeze at from an offensive standpoint.
Rossi is the best asset any team could have right now: A young, productive No. 1 center. He's played every game since last season. He's produced without power play time, he's produced with power play minutes, he's produced with Kaprizov, he's produced more without Kaprizov. Dating back to last season, Rossi and Brock Faber are the only Wild players not to miss a game.
There's nothing left to prove, and it's time to pay up.
Our last update on Rossi's future with Minnesota came from Michael Russo on December 26's "Worst Seats In the House" podcast -- five games and nine points ago. While Rossi doesn't appear to be on the trade block, the Wild are still in wait-and-see mode on a contract extension, with Kaprizov's final number on his mega-extension being the reason to wait.
The Wild's priority No. 1 is undoubtedly ensuring Kaprizov stays in the State of Hockey for years to come. But Rossi is quickly becoming 1A.
Assuming we're seeing the Real Rossi -- which feels fairly safe, given his draft pedigree -- it's almost impossible to overpay for what he brings to the table. He's a dynamic, two-way center on pace to score 31 goals and 76 points. The track record of centers who've produced to that degree at such a young age is very, very good. Then add in the defensive excellence he's showing, and we're talking about a player who can help Joel Eriksson Ek tilt the ice in the Wild's favor for years to come.
NHL front offices must build around their stars, and they need to build down the middle. Rossi fits both criteria.
Heading into the season, Evolving-Hockey projected the AAV of a long-term (seven-year) Rossi extension to be $5.7 million. That's not a realistic price anymore. Looking at his peers from the 2020 Draft, Tim Stützle (40 points in 38 games this year) has an AAV of $8.35, Lucas Raymond (41 points in 39 games) just signed for $8.08 million per year, and Alexis Lafrenière (21 points in 38 games) is making $7.45 million.
Rossi's number has to start with an "8." And if you're the Wild, you have to do it while laughing about getting another young star through their prime for a bargain. Minnesota can figure out the rest later. By the time Kaprizov's extension kicks in, the NHL will (presumably) have raised the cap twice, and Mats Zuccarello's money will be off the books. If Minnesota has to trade a lesser player to make the overall picture work, that's the price you have to pay.
Remember -- the goal is to keep Kaprizov long-term and to set themselves up to build a Cup winner around him. Kaprizov might score 100 points this season, even with 70 games. Locking down Kaprizov's center from his best-ever season has to sweeten the pot, no? The Wild can go to him and say, We're not just dumping money on you, but we're setting you up with the Nicklas Bäckström to your Alex Ovechkin for the next eight years.
Minnesota presumably had a chance to get in on the ground floor and didn't. That was a mistake. They don't have to make it again. The Wild can lock up their No. 1 center through his '20s and ensure that Rossi's rapidly-growing game doesn't lead to a rapidly-growing price tag.
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