By Tony Abbott -
The Minnesota Wild are going to take on Alex Ovechkin and the Metro Division Champion Washington Capitals tonight with their biggest weapon intact. Kirill Kaprizov (tied for second in the NHL with 9 points), Matt Boldy (T-sixth, 8 points), and Marco Rossi (4 points in 4 games) will start the game playing together on the top line.
The only question is, for how long?
In the middle of a third-straight game without a 5-on-5 goal, John Hynes had to shake things up against the Dallas Stars on Tuesday. Putting Joel Eriksson Ek with Boldy and Kaprizov had worked before. Why not try it again? That didn't work? Fine, swap Boldy out for Vladimir Tarasenko, see if that gives the veteran winger a spark. What if Marcus Johansson skated with Boldy and Rossi? Would that get him going?
Nothing worked, as both Minnesota's goals were on the power play. Without finding results in playing with chemistry, Hynes is back to starting his three best players on the same line.
True, the line hasn't scored at 5-on-5 in three games, either, but otherwise, they've been dominant. It's a small sample, but of the 43 lines who've played 30-plus minutes together, Kaprizov-Rossi-Boldy are fourth in the NHL in expected goals share at 5-on-5 (66.1%). That level of puck control usually leads to good things in the long term, and especially for players with the scoring touch of Kaprizov and Boldy.
Of course, that only goes so far when the Wild's second line is basically giving all those scoring chances back. That line has been defined by the pairing of Eriksson Ek and Tarasenko, with Marcuses Johansson and Foligno rotating in, and the overall result is brutal. The duo has an expected goal percentage of 34.2% at 5-on-5, and the results are particularly lacking on offense.
One high-powered line can carry a team to the playoffs under the right circumstances, but very often, it's not enough. Teams need depth, and that's an argument for trying to spread the wealth throughout the lineup.
The other side to that, however, is that teams rarely win without a dominant line. At least, not win the Stanley Cup. The Florida Panthers, Colorado Avalanche, and Tampa Bay Lightning have all been powered by a top line with at least two star players. Even the Edmonton Oilers had Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl playing more 5-on-5 minutes together than apart during their most recent run to the Cup Final.
Kaprizov and Boldy have been that potent of a weapon together over the past three seasons. In over 800 minutes together at 5-on-5 since the 2023-24 season, the Wild have out-scored opponents 51 to 34 (60.0% of the goals) and controlled 61.5% of the expected goals. When one or fewer of them are on the ice together, the team gets out-scored 252 to 284 (47.0%).
The good news is that the Wild have the makings of a second dominant line in the early going. It's just not the second line. Ryan Hartman and Yakov Trenin have shown great chemistry as a checking line, controlling 63.8% of the expected goals at 5-on-5. Again, it's a small sample size, but we've seen the Wild deploy checking lines that can tilt the ice dramatically in their favor. Especially with Marcus Foligno, who's spent about half of Hartman and Trenin's 42 minutes together.
There's time for the Wild to turn their 5-on-5 scoring fortunes around. Maybe Tarasenko picks things up, or Liam Öhgren or Danila Yurov settle into that spot, or Mats Zuccarello comes back and stabilizes things. Minnesota could also pull off a trade and try fixing its second line that way. The sheer amount of potential solutions gives hope that something will work, and that the Wild can have the luxury of allowing Kaprizov, Boldy, and Rossi to keep steamrolling the NHL.
Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.
-
3
Recommended Comments
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.