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  • The Wild Must Find A Way To Keep Their Top Line Together

    Image courtesy of Jerome Miron - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    By Tony Abbott -

    The Minnesota Wild are going to take on Alex Ovechkin and the Metro Division Champion Washington Capitals tonight with their biggest weapon intact. Kirill Kaprizov (tied for second in the NHL with 9 points), Matt Boldy (T-sixth, 8 points), and Marco Rossi (4 points in 4 games) will start the game playing together on the top line.

    The only question is, for how long?

    In the middle of a third-straight game without a 5-on-5 goal, John Hynes had to shake things up against the Dallas Stars on Tuesday. Putting Joel Eriksson Ek with Boldy and Kaprizov had worked before. Why not try it again? That didn't work? Fine, swap Boldy out for Vladimir Tarasenko, see if that gives the veteran winger a spark. What if Marcus Johansson skated with Boldy and Rossi? Would that get him going?

    Nothing worked, as both Minnesota's goals were on the power play. Without finding results in playing with chemistry, Hynes is back to starting his three best players on the same line.

    True, the line hasn't scored at 5-on-5 in three games, either, but otherwise, they've been dominant. It's a small sample, but of the 43 lines who've played 30-plus minutes together, Kaprizov-Rossi-Boldy are fourth in the NHL in expected goals share at 5-on-5 (66.1%). That level of puck control usually leads to good things in the long term, and especially for players with the scoring touch of Kaprizov and Boldy.

    Of course, that only goes so far when the Wild's second line is basically giving all those scoring chances back. That line has been defined by the pairing of Eriksson Ek and Tarasenko, with Marcuses Johansson and Foligno rotating in, and the overall result is brutal. The duo has an expected goal percentage of 34.2% at 5-on-5, and the results are particularly lacking on offense. 

    One high-powered line can carry a team to the playoffs under the right circumstances, but very often, it's not enough. Teams need depth, and that's an argument for trying to spread the wealth throughout the lineup.

    The other side to that, however, is that teams rarely win without a dominant line. At least, not win the Stanley Cup. The Florida Panthers, Colorado Avalanche, and Tampa Bay Lightning have all been powered by a top line with at least two star players. Even the Edmonton Oilers had Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl playing more 5-on-5 minutes together than apart during their most recent run to the Cup Final. 

    Kaprizov and Boldy have been that potent of a weapon together over the past three seasons. In over 800 minutes together at 5-on-5 since the 2023-24 season, the Wild have out-scored opponents 51 to 34 (60.0% of the goals) and controlled 61.5% of the expected goals. When one or fewer of them are on the ice together, the team gets out-scored 252 to 284 (47.0%). 

    The good news is that the Wild have the makings of a second dominant line in the early going. It's just not the second line. Ryan Hartman and Yakov Trenin have shown great chemistry as a checking line, controlling 63.8% of the expected goals at 5-on-5. Again, it's a small sample size, but we've seen the Wild deploy checking lines that can tilt the ice dramatically in their favor. Especially with Marcus Foligno, who's spent about half of Hartman and Trenin's 42 minutes together. 

    There's time for the Wild to turn their 5-on-5 scoring fortunes around. Maybe Tarasenko picks things up, or Liam Öhgren or Danila Yurov settle into that spot, or Mats Zuccarello comes back and stabilizes things. Minnesota could also pull off a trade and try fixing its second line that way. The sheer amount of potential solutions gives hope that something will work, and that the Wild can have the luxury of allowing Kaprizov, Boldy, and Rossi to keep steamrolling the NHL.

    By Tony Abbott  

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    Imyourhuckleberry
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    The Wild Must Find A Way To Keep Their Top Line Together

    I disagree with this premise as long as they continue to play Johansson with Eriksson Ek and Tarasenko. That line has zero setup guys. It has 2 finishers and a puck "transporter" who seldom sets up anything unless he has a bunch of open ice to work with--I'll give him credit for a couple of OT passes last year.

    Boldy and Kaprizov are going to play on the top power play line together, but splitting them up could increase offensive opportunities by having multiple lines winning their individual matchups rather than 1 scoring line, 1 defensive line, and 2 lines you don't expect to get much from. We'll see, but they certainly miss Zuccarello's craftiness when it comes to setting up scoring chances.

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    MNCountryLife

    I was a bit disappointed when I looked at the lineup.  Was hoping to see Haight called up to replace Marcus... or at the very least to slide him down to the 4th line.  

    I also wanted to see Jiricek in the lineup in place of Bogo or Mids.  We really need that to happen soon.

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    mnfaninnc

    One thing I'd like to see is Kaprizov and Boldy getting some double shifts. I'd almost be willing to go with an 11/7 lineup and let OgZ and Yurov get an extra shift of Kaprizov and Boldy on their line. 

    Why? Because I don't think Hynes will move either up to play with them. If there is some chemistry there, that would be great. We've seen the line blender go at it already, but the kids haven't gotten the chance. Why not give them that chance? 

    Early on in the season, everyone should be playing with everyone anyway, just to get used to how they play. Plus, if Kaprizov or Boldy plays with those 2, don't we really want to get them going?

    Who cares if Johansson is going? Nobody! Who cares if Tarasenko gets going? Slightly more than Johansson. What we really need is the future going and the quicker they can get going the better. 

    To do this, Hynes has got to think differently, think outside of his box, think uncomfortably. When they had the 3-0 lead against the Kings, that was a time to see if it would work. Same with the Blues when up big. You can pick some spots, but you've got to think differently. And, if you're down big, that's another time where you play the kids and try to get them going. 

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    MNCountryLife

    I am looking forward to getting either Zuc or Sturm back.  I have to think that either of those 2 will replace Marcus.  If it's Zuc he slides right to the 2nd line.  If it's Sturm he slides onto the 4th line and Ohgren or Yurov can slide up next to Ek.  Crossing my fingers on either of those scenarios happening soon.

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    Beast

    I think they need to find a way to separate them.

    They don’t really have any top 6 wingers outside of Kaprizov and Boldy right now.  But, getting someone to plug in next to Kaprizov and Rossi would allow them to put Boldy with Ek, and eventually Yurov or Zuccarello, would be ideal.

    I think Boldy is good enough now to carry a line without Kaprizov.  We also know Kaprizov can elevate nearly anybody (seen it with Hartman, Zuccarello).  They can deploy a monster possession driver, play maker, and scorer on multiple lines in that scenario (I think Boldy is that good).  

    Ideally that top 6 winger would’ve come this offseason, but maybe it will before the deadline.  There’s not much they can do internally to fix it at the moment.  But, they can’t effectively run 3 checking lines all year and expect to even make the playoffs (let alone a deep run).

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    Burnt Toast

    I think the solution is to bring in an elite of a scorer as possible. They don’t come around very often and they usually get offers from multiple teams. I think the fact that the Wild were broke (financially) the last 4 years is still effecting their roster. Sure they have the money but now they’re waiting for a decent player to become available. It’s a little strange that the roster is very similar to last year but I just don’t see a lot of chemistry beyond the first line. Does Zucc carry more locker room leadership than folks attribute to him? 

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