By Justin Wiggins -
It’s quiet in Minnesota as the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs begin this weekend. For just the second time in the past 12 seasons, the Wild faithful find themselves without a home team to sweat over throughout the intensity of a playoff series.
But with an early off-season comes an even earlier jumpstart to paving the path for the start of the 2024-25 season. Bill Guerin started by inking future Hall of Fame goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury to a one-year extension last Wednesday.
It wasn’t a surprising move. Fleury had told the media that he wanted to play another season, but only if it was in Minnesota. His relationship with Guerin all but solidified it as a certainty, but the response following the extension has been captivating. With two goalies at the NHL level now locked in for next season, the attention now turns to what the Wild plan to do with prized prospect Jesper Wallstedt.
Last week, we looked ahead to Wallstedt’s situation should Fleury be extended. It wouldn’t be bad for Wallstedt to return to Iowa, seeing as goalie development has peaks and valleys. However, many in the Wild fan base have wondered if Guerin would trade Filip Gustavsson this summer to make room for Wallstedt to form a tandem with Fleury. Gustavsson echoed that question during his exit media interviews on Friday.
“We’ll see. There is always a business side to hockey,” said the Swedish netminder. “I like it here and would love to be back next year and try to redeem what happened this year. We’ll see.”
That sounds like a goalie who knows there is a decent chance he will be on the move in a few months.
But should he? Even in Gustavsson's down season, Fleury finished the season toward the bottom of the league in goals saved above expected, not Gustavsson.
However, if the Wild think Wallstedt is ready to make the jump to the NHL, the decision will likely be determined. If that’s the belief, pairing the 21-year-old with “Flower's” veteran presence might make the most sense, even if Fleury isn’t the same goaltender at his age. It’s no secret Gustavsson has struggled with staying in shape in his pro career. Guerin and the Wild may prefer Wallstedt to learn from Fleury's habits instead of Gustavsson.
Let’s assume the Wild will do exactly that -- trade Gustavsson this summer and make Wallstedt a full-time NHLer. Just how easy will it be to trade Gustavsson? Simply put, it won’t be easy. And it likely won’t be one of the first moves of the summer, either. Patience may be the key.
Let’s face it, the Wild would be selling low on Gustavsson. Acquired in the summer of 2022 in a one-for-one deal with Cam Talbot, Gustavsson flourished in his first season in the State of Hockey. His status as a Vezina trophy finalist secured him a three-year contract last summer at $3.75 million annually.
But the wheels fell off the “Gus Bus” this season. The 25-year-old struggled with consistency all year. Combined with his self-assessed fitness issues, goalie-starved teams would likely look elsewhere on the market to find a suitable netminder.
The goalie market will be hot. Plenty of teams will be hoping to elevate themselves to contention conversation next year with the addition of an established goalie this summer. The obvious ones are the New Jersey Devils, Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, and Ottawa Senators. Depending on how their playoff runs go, the Colorado Avalanche, Toronto Maple Leafs, Carolina Hurricanes, and Los Angeles Kings may also throw their hats into the goalie ring.
Their timing is good, too. If teams are willing to meet the asking price for Jacob Markstrom, Juuse Saros, and Linus Ullmark, some top-of-the-market names should be available. All three were nearly traded at the deadline this season and will surely be available again. John Gibson will likely round out the list of high-end goaltenders available.
Anthony Stolarz in Florida has continued his upward trajectory from career backup to likely signing as a start somewhere this off-season. Every one of those names listed will be more coveted by most teams over Gustavsson. So, while the goalie market will start fast this summer, it likely won’t include Gustavsson immediately.
Here is where the patience must set in. Gustavsson won’t return much value in a trade. Still, if the Wild want to elevate Wallsedt next year, they must find a suitor to take on the final two years of Gustavsson’s $3.75 million cap hit. Gustavsson likely won’t be one of the first chips to fall when the trade window re-opens ahead of the NHL Draft. Instead, look for the Wild to call the teams who are trading away one of the goalies listed above.
Keep an eye on the Nashville Predators should they trade away Saros and promote Yaroslav Askarov, their goalie of the future. Barry Trotz would more than likely look to pair his young netminder with an experienced backup. The same goes for the Calgary Flames should they trade Vezina-caliber goalie Jacob Markstrom and turn their net over to Dustin Wolf.
There are just too many superior options out there for teams desperately needing to upgrade their crease for the market to be hot for Gustavsson. The NHL rarely enters the summer, with goaltender likely being the position with the most team-to-team movement.
Instead, the Wild will probably need to be patient in waiting for the secondary market to open in July following the start of free agency. It’s difficult to do, seeing as they don’t want to be left with a goalie to trade when the music stops. But it’s the situation they may find themselves in.
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