The Wild May Have To Learn From the Matthew Tkachuk Trade's Mistakes

Everyone knows that the Florida Panthers absolutely stole Matthew Tkachuk from the Calgary Flames. The Panthers have been to the Stanley Cup Final in each of the three years since, and lifted it in the last two. The Flames lost a superstar power forward who has put up 88 goals and 254 points in his ages 25-to-27 seasons.

And all they got for their troubles was Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar. Huberdeau bounced back in 2024-25 after a disappointing two seasons, but "bouncing back" meant "scoring 28 goals and 62 points instead of 15 and 55." Weegar has been the Flames' top defenseman, but if a blueliner logs 24 minutes a night on a team that hasn't made the playoffs in the past three years, does he make a sound?

Nope, this trade is a laugher for Calgary. They got pantsed. At least, in 2025.

In 2022, the Flames took an awful situation and got way more out of the deal than anyone ever thought. Tkachuk made it clear that he was not going to sign in Calgary. Money wasn't going to do it, nothing would. He was gone. In most cases, a superstar player who leaves town brings a standard package of an NHL player, a pick, and a prospect. That's a rebuilding move, which wouldn't have worked for a team that had just advanced to the second round of the playoffs.

At the time, what the Flames got blew everyone's mind. Huberdeau had just scored 30 goals, 115 points, and finished in the top-five in Hart Trophy voting. Weegar gained national attention -- in Florida, no less! -- for being a top defenseman. He finished eighth and 14th in Norris Trophy voting over his past two seasons. 

ESPN gave the Flames an A grade for the trade. A five-person panel at The Athletic gave Calgary an A-plus, A-minus, A, A-plus, and an A. You couldn't have made a trade more well-received.

And that's got to be something the Minnesota Wild have in mind as they (perhaps) approach doomsday. Kirill Kaprizov reportedly turned down a contract worth $128 million from the Wild. It's essential to note that it's not the same as wanting out of Minnesota, but it's not a great sign when a player says No thanks to being the highest-paid in the league. Until we find out more, the State of Hockey has to at least think about what Life After Kaprizov looks like.

One thing's for sure: It can't look like the Tkachuk Trade.

The Flames, weirdly enough, made a similar mistake to what the Wild did in 2012: They locked themselves into two aging players who raised the talent level of their team, but didn't quite elevate them into contenders.

There's obviously some hindsight with both. Like Huberdeau, Zach Parise also had a season where he finished fifth in Hart voting. Like Weegar, Ryan Suter was also an elite two-way defenseman. It's hard to fault either team for making the moves they did, even if they were wrong about their ultimate ceiling.

But in hindsight, the Flames would want more for Tkachuk, and the Wild would still buy out Parise and Suter.

And the Wild will have regrets if Kaprizov leaves in free agency. It might be tempting to stick to the Wild's five-year plan for contention. Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi, Zeev Buium, Danila Yurov, and Brock Faber make for a ready-made Under-25 core of players. Meanwhile, veteran core pieces like Joel Eriksson Ek, Jared Spurgeon, and Jonas Brodin aren't getting any younger. It'd be tempting for Guerin to grab a life raft and bring in a solid veteran player or two to help fill the Kaprizov hole.

We already know what the problem is. Let's say the hated Vegas Golden Knights want Kaprizov and hypnotize Tomas Hertl and Shea Theodore (as they do with all their unmovable players) to waive their No-Move Clauses to make it happen. Suddenly, the Wild have a big center and a top-flight power play quarterback. What does that mean, without Kaprizov to elevate the rest of the roster? That's a team that's definitely making the playoffs, and definitely not making the Conference Finals.

At the same time, we also know the Player/Pick/Prospect model isn't likely to work, either. You have to nail the pick, or uncover another Faber -- a prospect an organization knows pretty well, but ultimately underestimates. Without that, you're the Buffalo Sabers after trading Jack Eichel: With no superstar, and on Year 3 of hoping that this will be the year for Peyton Krebs and Noah Östlund (SPOILER: it won't be).

So, what then?

Bill Guerin and the Wild can't fool themselves: There's no winning a Kaprizov trade. The Flames did their damn best and couldn't win the Tkachuk trade. If you're giving up a consistent MVP-level force, you automatically are getting less value.

But what the Wild can do is try to turn Kaprizov into a player who can help build around the Boldy/Rossi/Buium/Faber/Yurov core. "A" is the keyword. Not a collection of lottery tickets. They need to identify the best Under-25 player or prospect they can possibly get for Kaprizov and get them.

Teams aren't going to hand over their best players and prospects, even for Kaprizov. If Kaprizov wants to go to Chicago, you can bet that their tippy-top tier of Connor Bedard or Artyom Levshunov is untouchable, and probably even 2025 third-overall pick Anton Frondell. But if Frank Nazar III is the price of admission to give Bedard a superstar teammate, are the Chicago Blackhawks going to say no?

That's the line of thinking the Wild are going to have to pursue. They aren't getting someone else's Kaprizov, whether for right now or in the future. But they can perhaps target someone's Matt Boldy -- a high-end player with youth and upside.

Continuing to use the Blackhawks and Nazar as an example, one of them is going to be more valuable than a package of B/B-plus-tier prospects like Sam Rinzel and Oliver Moore. The Wild's history, and the Kaprizov years especially, prove that winning is about having high-end talent. If they can't have Kaprizov, they have to target the highest-end talent they can land.

Granted, it's a lot to ask of a player to be Adam Larsson -- the one guy a team got back for a superstar. Whether it's Nazar, or to spitball, Matthew Knies of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Cutter Gauthier/Mason McTavish in Anaheim, or William Eklund/Will Smith in San Jose, whoever fills Kaprizov's shoes is going to have a ton of pressure on them.

Still, that's the best chance the Wild would have of not letting Kaprizov's departure doom them to eternal mediocrity. We've seen what doesn't work with the Tkachuk trade, and we've seen what rarely works with countless Player/Pick/Prospect deals. For Guerin to keep his core on track, he'd have to break out of that thinking and identify the best single player he can get.