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  • The Wild May Have To Learn From the Matthew Tkachuk Trade's Mistakes


    Image courtesy of Sergei Belski - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    Everyone knows that the Florida Panthers absolutely stole Matthew Tkachuk from the Calgary Flames. The Panthers have been to the Stanley Cup Final in each of the three years since, and lifted it in the last two. The Flames lost a superstar power forward who has put up 88 goals and 254 points in his ages 25-to-27 seasons.

    And all they got for their troubles was Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar. Huberdeau bounced back in 2024-25 after a disappointing two seasons, but "bouncing back" meant "scoring 28 goals and 62 points instead of 15 and 55." Weegar has been the Flames' top defenseman, but if a blueliner logs 24 minutes a night on a team that hasn't made the playoffs in the past three years, does he make a sound?

    Nope, this trade is a laugher for Calgary. They got pantsed. At least, in 2025.

    In 2022, the Flames took an awful situation and got way more out of the deal than anyone ever thought. Tkachuk made it clear that he was not going to sign in Calgary. Money wasn't going to do it, nothing would. He was gone. In most cases, a superstar player who leaves town brings a standard package of an NHL player, a pick, and a prospect. That's a rebuilding move, which wouldn't have worked for a team that had just advanced to the second round of the playoffs.

    At the time, what the Flames got blew everyone's mind. Huberdeau had just scored 30 goals, 115 points, and finished in the top-five in Hart Trophy voting. Weegar gained national attention -- in Florida, no less! -- for being a top defenseman. He finished eighth and 14th in Norris Trophy voting over his past two seasons. 

    ESPN gave the Flames an A grade for the trade. A five-person panel at The Athletic gave Calgary an A-plus, A-minus, A, A-plus, and an A. You couldn't have made a trade more well-received.

    And that's got to be something the Minnesota Wild have in mind as they (perhaps) approach doomsday. Kirill Kaprizov reportedly turned down a contract worth $128 million from the Wild. It's essential to note that it's not the same as wanting out of Minnesota, but it's not a great sign when a player says No thanks to being the highest-paid in the league. Until we find out more, the State of Hockey has to at least think about what Life After Kaprizov looks like.

    One thing's for sure: It can't look like the Tkachuk Trade.

    The Flames, weirdly enough, made a similar mistake to what the Wild did in 2012: They locked themselves into two aging players who raised the talent level of their team, but didn't quite elevate them into contenders.

    There's obviously some hindsight with both. Like Huberdeau, Zach Parise also had a season where he finished fifth in Hart voting. Like Weegar, Ryan Suter was also an elite two-way defenseman. It's hard to fault either team for making the moves they did, even if they were wrong about their ultimate ceiling.

    But in hindsight, the Flames would want more for Tkachuk, and the Wild would still buy out Parise and Suter.

    And the Wild will have regrets if Kaprizov leaves in free agency. It might be tempting to stick to the Wild's five-year plan for contention. Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi, Zeev Buium, Danila Yurov, and Brock Faber make for a ready-made Under-25 core of players. Meanwhile, veteran core pieces like Joel Eriksson Ek, Jared Spurgeon, and Jonas Brodin aren't getting any younger. It'd be tempting for Guerin to grab a life raft and bring in a solid veteran player or two to help fill the Kaprizov hole.

    We already know what the problem is. Let's say the hated Vegas Golden Knights want Kaprizov and hypnotize Tomas Hertl and Shea Theodore (as they do with all their unmovable players) to waive their No-Move Clauses to make it happen. Suddenly, the Wild have a big center and a top-flight power play quarterback. What does that mean, without Kaprizov to elevate the rest of the roster? That's a team that's definitely making the playoffs, and definitely not making the Conference Finals.

    At the same time, we also know the Player/Pick/Prospect model isn't likely to work, either. You have to nail the pick, or uncover another Faber -- a prospect an organization knows pretty well, but ultimately underestimates. Without that, you're the Buffalo Sabers after trading Jack Eichel: With no superstar, and on Year 3 of hoping that this will be the year for Peyton Krebs and Noah Östlund (SPOILER: it won't be).

    So, what then?

    Bill Guerin and the Wild can't fool themselves: There's no winning a Kaprizov trade. The Flames did their damn best and couldn't win the Tkachuk trade. If you're giving up a consistent MVP-level force, you automatically are getting less value.

    But what the Wild can do is try to turn Kaprizov into a player who can help build around the Boldy/Rossi/Buium/Faber/Yurov core. "A" is the keyword. Not a collection of lottery tickets. They need to identify the best Under-25 player or prospect they can possibly get for Kaprizov and get them.

    Teams aren't going to hand over their best players and prospects, even for Kaprizov. If Kaprizov wants to go to Chicago, you can bet that their tippy-top tier of Connor Bedard or Artyom Levshunov is untouchable, and probably even 2025 third-overall pick Anton Frondell. But if Frank Nazar III is the price of admission to give Bedard a superstar teammate, are the Chicago Blackhawks going to say no?

    That's the line of thinking the Wild are going to have to pursue. They aren't getting someone else's Kaprizov, whether for right now or in the future. But they can perhaps target someone's Matt Boldy -- a high-end player with youth and upside.

    Continuing to use the Blackhawks and Nazar as an example, one of them is going to be more valuable than a package of B/B-plus-tier prospects like Sam Rinzel and Oliver Moore. The Wild's history, and the Kaprizov years especially, prove that winning is about having high-end talent. If they can't have Kaprizov, they have to target the highest-end talent they can land.

    Granted, it's a lot to ask of a player to be Adam Larsson -- the one guy a team got back for a superstar. Whether it's Nazar, or to spitball, Matthew Knies of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Cutter Gauthier/Mason McTavish in Anaheim, or William Eklund/Will Smith in San Jose, whoever fills Kaprizov's shoes is going to have a ton of pressure on them.

    Still, that's the best chance the Wild would have of not letting Kaprizov's departure doom them to eternal mediocrity. We've seen what doesn't work with the Tkachuk trade, and we've seen what rarely works with countless Player/Pick/Prospect deals. For Guerin to keep his core on track, he'd have to break out of that thinking and identify the best single player he can get.

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    Worst case scenario, if Kaprizov is not here next season, the Wild have Boldy, Rossi, Faber, and the rookies Zeev, Yurov, and Ohgren that will be in their early to mid-20's to build around.  Unfortunately, the Wild would then have to trade and capitalize on selling off the current vets to contending teams and the next 2-4 seasons would be pretty lean and we would definitely not be a playoff team.

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    KiriIl Perspective: Is Kirill thinking about his age and his name on the cup.  The money is enough.  Sign a 3x$15 with the Wild and see if MN can produce the contender.  If they fail Kirill moves on and probably signs a 5x$15 in his hockey twilight years fighting for a SC on a contending team.

    BG Perspective: wants a longer contract.  3 years limits BGs window to convince Kirill to stay and more difficult to sign players that want to play with Kirill.

    My perspective: I thought I read a few weeks ago that money was not the sticking point.  It was the years.  Let's not forget that Kirill is 28 years old.  I would much rather have a 5x$15 contract than a 8x$16.  8 years is a long time to have a player.  Especially one that has peaked (and yes, at 28yo Kirill has peaked) and likely will regress a bit in 5 years.

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    If Kirill does decide to move on and refuses to sign, that would catastrophic.  That would definitely be a sign that the best players in the league don't have the confidence that MN can ever win a cup.  BG would have to concede that a top heavy team isn't going to happen.  He would need to go the other route of having a very deep team with no superstars.  A 100% commited defensive mentality would be required.  Yuck.

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    1 hour ago, 0 Stanley Cups said:

    Unfortunately, the Wild would then have to trade and capitalize on selling off the current vets to contending teams and the next 2-4 seasons would be pretty lean and we would definitely not be a playoff team

    Pretty lean years with high draft picks. It’s a sellers market so getting top value by offloading vets has its own silver lining. If your Plan A goes off the tracks it’s time for a bold Plan B. Win Win. 

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    If there was an inside source with the knowledge kappy rejected the deal , why wouldn’t that source also know if kappy said he wanted more money or shorter term? It had to have been brought up after deal was rejected. It tends to make me think he’s out the door. However on the flip side , why would  kappy talk vlad into coming here if he’s leaving.  IMO there’s more going on because of this was an easy fix like money or term, why wouldn’t the wild leak that to save face. 
        Listening to Russo s pod I agree with him on if kappy doesn’t have contract by start of season then they need to ask him for a list of teams and trade him. They can’t take a chance of going into the season and getting hurt. Plus he’d have more value if a team gets a season with him. Otherwise why wouldn’t they let him walk into free agency and get him for nothing. 
       I think Tony is right in how to go about getting the best player to fill in this core but I doubt it will make a contender but who knows.  I do know that this market cannot build on the fly like other teams. We have nothing in Our history or city to make players want to come here  . You have to build in this market from ground up. Get kids on controllable contracts and hope they grow together into a contender. Because you ain’t going to go get Conner mcdavid in the free agent sweepstakes . The wild should have built like Chicago, ducks or San Jose. They need to draft there superstar and get him surrounded with other draft picks and grow them together. But that’s not going to happen so mediocre her we go. 

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    Someone on Reddit suggesting Laf and a first from the Rangers.  It wouldn't be my first option, but it might be better than the Rangers trying to offload Zibanejad or something.  Might need another pick to make that work for a Kap trade though, unless he insists on going to the Rags

    Laf AND Kaako might have been nice if Drury didn't go scorched earth last season.

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    Kirill has been asked for his preferred trade list.  It's happening people.  What was your favorite Kirill moment?

    Bro didn't care about the $ as much as he didn't want to be stuck in NHL purgatory one and done'ing.  bill added Trenin, Tarasanko, Nyquist, Brazzeau, re-upped Nojo, Maroon, re-signed Sturm....not exactly murderer's row.

    Next we can handicap bill's tenure as Wild GM.  Not weird.

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    I still believe we will sign Kaprizov. For how long I don't know.

    But, should he decide to go, Tony's idea has 1 problem: The bad teams have the good young prospects. Unless Kaprizov just wants out of this market and wants to go to a big city, which I don't think he does, then we have to acquire assets from a contending team. Their young guys have mostly been sold off.

    I also believe Kaprizov would be making a mistake on giving up on the team. With the new kids coming in, they can hit the ground running. Maybe ODC was right all along, we had to make this team better quick, and use the prospects for seasoned NHL stars? 

    If I remember last time around correctly, wasn't there a lot of wringing hands about him resigning then too?

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    14 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    Kirill has been asked for his preferred trade list.  It's happening people.  What was your favorite Kirill moment?

    Bro didn't care about the $ as much as he didn't want to be stuck in NHL purgatory one and done'ing.  bill added Trenin, Tarasanko, Nyquist, Brazzeau, re-upped Nojo, Maroon, re-signed Sturm....not exactly murderer's row.

    Next we can handicap bill's tenure as Wild GM.  Not weird.

    If this is true, Judd Brackett cannot be the guy spending the draft capital from a 97 trade.  

    Prediction if 97 gets traded:

    1) bill fires Brackett to deflect responsibility

    2) bill acts as interim scouting director guiding Brackett's former staff

    3) bill absolutely shits the bed in that draft (we won't have to wait five years it's so bad) and forces Leo's hand who fires bill next off-season

    4) Carle is brought in as head couch and some quasi hockey ops role (head coach +) with the promise that if he gets it done he goes full Scotty Bowman and he can fill both roles.

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    18 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    Kirill has been asked for his preferred trade list.

    Could be the Wild calling KK’s agent’s bluff. I like it. Could be a back room deal is already in place somewhere behind the scenes and  the list is going to be pretty small. I don’t really like that. “Expect the Unexpected”. wait wrong thread. “Not Weird….” Ya that’s the one. 

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    I can hear Russo, "i had this information but didn't report b/c i couldn't confirm my sources bob loblaw"

    P-Sanko, why all the Russo hate?  I'm bored, and I think bill has boxed out Russo b/c he wouldn't suck the teet, so now Russo is paying the price.  Who's gonna laugh last bill?

    P-Knuckle, why the bill hate?  Because I'm bored and i hate bill

    Edited by Pewterschmidt
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    Reporter Elliotte Friedman states that some teams willing to pay $20M/AAV to Kirill.  That is too much.  At that amount it may be time to get his preferred team list for a trade.

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    End of the day, Kaprizov will be 29 when the new contract kicks in. He has a history of injury which will only get worse as he ages. If he doesn't want to sign here long term for the highest contract in the NHL then see ya later. Get what you can (priority under-25 players/prospects over draft picks) and good luck to you in your future endeavors Mr. Kaprizov.

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    IF Kaprizov turned down the contract because he wants more money it's a no brainer to trade him. You can't win with superstars who are not 100% committed to winning. 

    Koivu's competitive nature dragged a bottom 10 roster to the playoffs every year. 

    You can't win with losers.

    Again, IF KK turned it down. 

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    If he goes it will suck.  But if he goes as a free agent it will be even worse.  They probably should really consider trading him.  Having him go will not be the end of the world that everyone says it will.  The 8 year 16 million contract is a huge gamble.  The last two huge contracts the Wild signed were not that great.  With his injury issues he could be traded after two years and then retire which would cause the Wild even more cap issues than both of the Parise and Sutter contracts.  

    But even with all that I still would like him on the team but if he goes the Wild will still be a successful team, that is in the regular season.  And with the void his departure would leave maybe the team could tank and get a number one pick and then win a cup like everyone else does.  Well except for Vegas they were given the cup by the league. 

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    10 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

    If he goes it will suck.  But if he goes as a free agent it will be even worse.  They probably should really consider trading him.

    💣TRUTH BOMB 💣 

    I read somewhere the Leo’s first year of ownership was Gabby’s last year (that true?). Either way we all know what that felt like and how that blew a super star sized hole in the Wild lineup.  I like that we’ve asked for a trade list so we can start shopping him and have it done before season, rather than fiddle ourselves for six months until his January abdomen surgery and we get nothing for him

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