The Wild May Have Locked Themselves Into the Wrong Time To Strike

"Last week, I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier than helping someone move. I just went over to his house and made sure he did not start to load s--- into a truck." -- State of Hockey native Mitch Hedberg.

After four years of largely staying put, the Minnesota Wild are itching to move. They want to move on free agents, they want to move young players for established ones, they want to make a splash. "I like to be aggressive," said general manager Bill Guerin at the end of his team's abbreviated playoff run. "I don't want to sit on my hands at all. And I'm tired of doing that."

"Christmas Morning" has been the phrase ownership has thrown around about July 1. In some sense, that was right at the time. Not only could the team sign Kirill Kaprizov (which seems likely to happen), but they'd perhaps be able to knock the socks off a superstar free agent like Mikko Rantanen or Mitch Marner. However, as we're shaking the boxes in the closet, it's sounding more like Brock Nelson and/or Brock Boeser is all that's inside.

Of course, there's always the trade market, but that doesn't appear too fruitful. Elias Pettersson might -- mind you, might -- be a big fish on the trade block. However, as great as a player he can be, it's hard to see a GM who said "I don't love soft skill" pursuing the Vancouver Canucks star. Fair or not, Pettersson has a reputation.

Beyond Pettersson? There are restricted free agents who may be difficult for their current teams to keep -- JJ Peterka and Matthew Knies come to mind -- but teams usually figure out how to keep young core pieces. We're not hearing about Jack Eichel/Matthew Tkachuk-type situations where a star player wants out of a losing franchise. 

Maybe that changes, but the Wild have committed themselves to doing a cannonball into an offseason where the available talent is roughly the equivalent of an above-ground pool. And if you listen to State of Hockey native Mitch Hedberg, you'll know there's not much you can do in an above-ground pool. 

If that's the case, maybe the Wild are better off staying put. Minnesota might not need to do all that much to their roster -- at least not in terms of splashy moves. After all, they just pushed the Vegas Golden Knights in a playoff series despite missing around $15 million worth of depth players. And that was without a coming youth movement that should solve many depth issues on its own.

Next season will (likely) see the arrival of Danila Yurov, a two-way forward with skill and solid production in the KHL. Liam Öhgren, a physical power forward, scored 19 goals and 37 points in 41 games with the Iowa Wild and might be ready to contribute. 6-foot-5 defenseman prospect David Jiricek has a summer to gain strength. So does Zeev Buium, who got his first taste of NHL action in the playoffs and largely held his own. Goalie Jesper Wallstedt has a summer to clear his head and reset after a tough year. 

Minnesota spent years building up this stable of top prospects, and might have five highly-touted, first-round prospects injected into their lineup next year. Why not stay the course? Why, for example, trade Öhgren to land a scoring winger when he might be ready to fill that role in October? Where's the harm in seeing what this team can do with these young, NHL-ready players bumping out replacement-level types like Gustav Nyquist and Marcus Johansson and Jon Merrill before making a "splash" that can become an albatross?

Guerin has acknowledged that risk. "You have to be careful because July 1 can be a day of mistakes," he told the media. And he's right -- even the top free agents can be potential landmines for the Wild.

Nelson's projected contract might be the most reasonable, with Evolving-Hockey projecting three years and a $7.4 million cap hit. Still, that includes buying his ages-34-to-36 seasons, which are hardly a sure thing. They project Boeser's deal to run seven years at an $8.2 million cap hit.

Minnesota might be committing to a one-way winger who relies on his shot to generate offense well into his 30s -- ask Dany Heatley or Thomas Vanek how well that player profile ages. Or they could give a similar deal to Sam Bennett (EH Projection: seven years, $7.5 AAV), yet another one-way player... one coming off a career-high 51 points.

The more you look, the more you realize that maybe this isn't the year to throw money around wildly. It might be better for the Wild to bide their time, see what lineup holes their prospects fill, and go into the summer of 2026 with more money and information. 

Except, the Wild can't, and they won't. They've hyped up the summer as the year they can go off and add the final pieces to becoming a contender. Looking from their view, you can see why they sold the summer of 2025 to the fanbase. Four years is a long time for fans to have to wait. After four years of steadily getting less able to make moves, doing nothing with newfound flexibility is a bad look for a team.

Still, there has to be a balance. Should the Wild go with Nelson or Bennett, they might move a 23-year-old top-six center to make room for a pivot who's significantly older and worse in their own end. They may take a cost-controlled goal-scorer in Öhgren and try to cash him in for a quick fix. In both cases, Minnesota is probably much better staying put.

While the Wild have found themselves in a position with some financial flexibility, they probably should have allowed for more flexibility in their timeline. They didn't, and now it's go-time, even if the big splashes they plan to make might make for better headlines than they do for building a Stanley Cup contender.