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  • The Wild May Have Locked Themselves Into the Wrong Time To Strike


    Image courtesy of Matt Blewett - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    "Last week, I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier than helping someone move. I just went over to his house and made sure he did not start to load s--- into a truck." -- State of Hockey native Mitch Hedberg.

    After four years of largely staying put, the Minnesota Wild are itching to move. They want to move on free agents, they want to move young players for established ones, they want to make a splash. "I like to be aggressive," said general manager Bill Guerin at the end of his team's abbreviated playoff run. "I don't want to sit on my hands at all. And I'm tired of doing that."

    "Christmas Morning" has been the phrase ownership has thrown around about July 1. In some sense, that was right at the time. Not only could the team sign Kirill Kaprizov (which seems likely to happen), but they'd perhaps be able to knock the socks off a superstar free agent like Mikko Rantanen or Mitch Marner. However, as we're shaking the boxes in the closet, it's sounding more like Brock Nelson and/or Brock Boeser is all that's inside.

    Of course, there's always the trade market, but that doesn't appear too fruitful. Elias Pettersson might -- mind you, might -- be a big fish on the trade block. However, as great as a player he can be, it's hard to see a GM who said "I don't love soft skill" pursuing the Vancouver Canucks star. Fair or not, Pettersson has a reputation.

    Beyond Pettersson? There are restricted free agents who may be difficult for their current teams to keep -- JJ Peterka and Matthew Knies come to mind -- but teams usually figure out how to keep young core pieces. We're not hearing about Jack Eichel/Matthew Tkachuk-type situations where a star player wants out of a losing franchise. 

    Maybe that changes, but the Wild have committed themselves to doing a cannonball into an offseason where the available talent is roughly the equivalent of an above-ground pool. And if you listen to State of Hockey native Mitch Hedberg, you'll know there's not much you can do in an above-ground pool

    If that's the case, maybe the Wild are better off staying put. Minnesota might not need to do all that much to their roster -- at least not in terms of splashy moves. After all, they just pushed the Vegas Golden Knights in a playoff series despite missing around $15 million worth of depth players. And that was without a coming youth movement that should solve many depth issues on its own.

    Next season will (likely) see the arrival of Danila Yurov, a two-way forward with skill and solid production in the KHL. Liam Öhgren, a physical power forward, scored 19 goals and 37 points in 41 games with the Iowa Wild and might be ready to contribute. 6-foot-5 defenseman prospect David Jiricek has a summer to gain strength. So does Zeev Buium, who got his first taste of NHL action in the playoffs and largely held his own. Goalie Jesper Wallstedt has a summer to clear his head and reset after a tough year. 

    Minnesota spent years building up this stable of top prospects, and might have five highly-touted, first-round prospects injected into their lineup next year. Why not stay the course? Why, for example, trade Öhgren to land a scoring winger when he might be ready to fill that role in October? Where's the harm in seeing what this team can do with these young, NHL-ready players bumping out replacement-level types like Gustav Nyquist and Marcus Johansson and Jon Merrill before making a "splash" that can become an albatross?

    Guerin has acknowledged that risk. "You have to be careful because July 1 can be a day of mistakes," he told the media. And he's right -- even the top free agents can be potential landmines for the Wild.

    Nelson's projected contract might be the most reasonable, with Evolving-Hockey projecting three years and a $7.4 million cap hit. Still, that includes buying his ages-34-to-36 seasons, which are hardly a sure thing. They project Boeser's deal to run seven years at an $8.2 million cap hit.

    Minnesota might be committing to a one-way winger who relies on his shot to generate offense well into his 30s -- ask Dany Heatley or Thomas Vanek how well that player profile ages. Or they could give a similar deal to Sam Bennett (EH Projection: seven years, $7.5 AAV), yet another one-way player... one coming off a career-high 51 points.

    The more you look, the more you realize that maybe this isn't the year to throw money around wildly. It might be better for the Wild to bide their time, see what lineup holes their prospects fill, and go into the summer of 2026 with more money and information. 

    Except, the Wild can't, and they won't. They've hyped up the summer as the year they can go off and add the final pieces to becoming a contender. Looking from their view, you can see why they sold the summer of 2025 to the fanbase. Four years is a long time for fans to have to wait. After four years of steadily getting less able to make moves, doing nothing with newfound flexibility is a bad look for a team.

    Still, there has to be a balance. Should the Wild go with Nelson or Bennett, they might move a 23-year-old top-six center to make room for a pivot who's significantly older and worse in their own end. They may take a cost-controlled goal-scorer in Öhgren and try to cash him in for a quick fix. In both cases, Minnesota is probably much better staying put.

    While the Wild have found themselves in a position with some financial flexibility, they probably should have allowed for more flexibility in their timeline. They didn't, and now it's go-time, even if the big splashes they plan to make might make for better headlines than they do for building a Stanley Cup contender.

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    Everything hinges on what other teams do with those players.  Sign them up, and they are off the table to begin with.

    As long as Guerin says Nyquist, Mojo, Brazeau, and others are just plain gone, I am willing to see some chips fall.

    Edited by Citizen Strife
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    For the last two years, I have said the wild should be sellers at the deadline.  Two years ago they did not give up much, but this year they gave up a 2 for no return.  

    I don't know who will ring BG's phone, what offers are on the table, etc but unless they find something that wows everyone, I roll with the young guys (Yurov, Ohgren, Rossi) until deadline because there are always one or two players that we would really want that are for sale.  In the offseason, teams still have more hope in their plan until they see at midseason it aint working.  

    If you can't wow me with something, try to pump up the young player's value instead of ripping them and taking opportunity and see if you can swing a deal at midseason when you know what you have, what you need, and are not selling low on a guy like Rossi that you have done everything you can to decimate his trade value.  I am willing to wait until then because I am sure we will be in the playoff picture still and not at the bottom, and if you are, you should blow up the whole roster and front office.

    Edited by Dis-allowed display name
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    I hate beating the Rossi drum, I really do, but Billy is about to make another big mistake.

    Let's put it into perspective.

    24-25:

    Rossi GP82  G24  A36  P60  +3  Age 23  $6-7M

    Nelson GP80  G26  A30  P56  +6  Age 33  $7.4M

    Boeser GP75  G25  A25  P50  -25  Age 28  $8.2M

    Sam Bennet GP76  G25  A26  P51  -15 Age 28  $7.5M

    Rossi will continue to improve, the other three will only decline. Rossi is young and a long term contract is much safer and probably cheaper. So what if he isn't a power forward, he could easily replace Zuccy.

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    36 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

    I hate beating the Rossi drum, I really do, but Billy is about to make another big mistake.

    I only hope that Guerin doesn't sell low on Rossi. Unless he gets blown away by a trade before the draft, his best option is to let Rossi get an offer sheet.

    Use the 7 days to find a trade that beats the draft picks or match the Offer Sheet. Chances are that Rossi will get something that looks like a bridge deal, less than $7M and 5 years at most.

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    5 minutes ago, Kato AK said:

    I only hope that Guerin doesn't sell low on Rossi. Unless he gets blown away by a trade before the draft, his best option is to let Rossi get an offer sheet.

    Use the 7 days to find a trade that beats the draft picks or match the Offer Sheet. Chances are that Rossi will get something that looks like a bridge deal, less than $7M and 5 years at most.

    With the way Guerin shit talked him and the way he was buried on the 4th line in the playoffs--nobody is going to trade for him because everybody knows our dipshit GM doesn't want him. They will probably just offer sheet him and call it a day. Pretty good deal to get a top 6 center that every team could use.

    What do the Wild get? Trying to sign an older center to replace Rossi at a higher cap hit. Sounds like a solid plan.

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    59 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

    I hate beating the Rossi drum, I really do, but Billy is about to make another big mistake.

    Let's put it into perspective.

    24-25:

    Rossi GP82  G24  A36  P60  +3  Age 23  $6-7M

    Nelson GP80  G26  A30  P56  +6  Age 33  $7.4M

    Boeser GP75  G25  A25  P50  -25  Age 28  $8.2M

    Sam Bennet GP76  G25  A26  P51  -15 Age 28  $7.5M

    Rossi will continue to improve, the other three will only decline. Rossi is young and a long term contract is much safer and probably cheaper. So what if he isn't a power forward, he could easily replace Zuccy.

    Couldn’t agree more.  I would much rather keep Rossi (younger and likely to improve) and trade Zuccy if the issue is to have only so many vertically unenhanced guys in the lineup.  The Wild have been starved for more offense FOREVER.  Why not find a way to keep a young offensive player AND add more offense?

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    20 minutes ago, TCMooch said:

    With the way Guerin shit talked him and the way he was buried on the 4th line in the playoffs--nobody is going to trade for him because everybody knows our dipshit GM doesn't want him. They will probably just offer sheet him and call it a day. Pretty good deal to get a top 6 center that every team could use.

    What do the Wild get? Trying to sign an older center to replace Rossi at a higher cap hit. Sounds like a solid plan.

    Thats kind of my point though. Rossi can only sign 1 offer sheet and rumors are that plenty of teams have interest in him. Let him sign an OS and have a bidding war for 7 days.

    To be honest, whoever gives him the offer sheet will probably be in the worst position to get him.

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    17 minutes ago, WildNotMild said:

    Couldn’t agree more.  I would much rather keep Rossi (younger and likely to improve) and trade Zuccy if the issue is to have only so many vertically unenhanced guys in the lineup.  The Wild have been starved for more offense FOREVER.  Why not find a way to keep a young offensive player AND add more offense?

    maybe because Zuccy is best friend of Kap (and you want to position yourself well with negotiations upcoming and not send Kap's bff packing) hell maybe even resign Zuccy for a team friendly 1 year contract for 3 mil. not to mention he can still play and would be cheaper than Rossi

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    14 minutes ago, Kato AK said:

    Thats kind of my point though. Rossi can only sign 1 offer sheet and rumors are that plenty of teams have interest in him. Let him sign an OS and have a bidding war for 7 days.

    To be honest, whoever gives him the offer sheet will probably be in the worst position to get him.

    chicago offer sheet Rossi at 12 mil per and all are good! right?

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    9 minutes ago, Kato AK said:

    Thats kind of my point though. Rossi can only sign 1 offer sheet and rumors are that plenty of teams have interest in him. Let him sign an OS and have a bidding war for 7 days.

    To be honest, whoever gives him the offer sheet will probably be in the worst position to get him.

    If that is the best case scenario, the Wild would be losing a two way NHL center for potential players that are probably a couple of years away if they hit.  If Rossi doesn’t fit the Kaprizov window, then future picks definitely won’t.

    Offer Zuccy an assistant GM job to keep him around and help Billy.  Kidding, but is this a “legal” move?  If so, maybe ask Spurgeon to be a d man coach/specialist in Iowa.  Get creative Billy.

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    2 hours ago, Dis-allowed display name said:

    see if you can swing a deal at midseason when you know what you have, what you need

    This is the approach I’m hoping for unless you have players knocking at your door with an offer you just can’t refuse. When younger players hit they cost. (Faber). Best to be planning to pay Yurov, Gus, Ohg, Jiri, and Bnm. Then if a top player becomes available sure put the icing on the cake. 

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    If I understand correctly, a $15M KK contract wouldn't start hitting the cap space until 26-27.  According to Spotrac we have 17/23 rostered for 25-26, and about $18.5M of available space, and missing at least 2 attackers and a blueliner.  

    Rossi will most likely be ghosted from our 25-26 roster.  Either you pay the man, you pay for his replacement, or you pay in terms of lost offensive production this season.  For argument's sake, let's say that is worth $7M AAV.  Your cap space sits at $11.5M.  

    Most here prefer Mojo and Bogo to go-go.  So add 1 more blueliner to the needs list.  Where are you going to find 2 PO-Caliber attackers and 2 defenders to ratchet up our PO game for $11M (assuming KK's $6M bump doesn't hit until next year)?  The demand is high, the supply is low, add in cap increases for all teams, and prices will be high.  

    I say you sign Rossi.  GMBG, you are the the GM.  It's called leadership, not like-er-ship.  Just sign Rossi and let him flourish here, instead of against us.  Preserve your cash and let the prospects gain that experience.  At TDL, most likely more seasoned NHL experience supply and now you know how your prospects are doing, where your gaps are, and have funds to make the RIGHT moves then.  

     

    Edited by hydguy75
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    Smart move this off season would be to tell Rossi to go find an RFA deal. If anything below 7.02 comes in for him, sign him, if it goes over that take the picks.  If Rossi doesn't leave and you sign him then go after Nelson for the 3 year 7 Million deal and if anything is left go fine Pius Suter and find out if he will come.  If Rossi leaves go talk to Tavares and say want to win a cup with Minnesota with Kirill and Boldy as your wingers.  Then play the rookies.  

    If you sign and trade Rossi that would be about the dumbest thing you could do.  You are not going to get anything in return that is better.  

    If Rossi leaves use the picks at the trade deadline to get someone for the stretch run that doesn't suck.

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    I like it Tony, nice article. 👍

    I think cautious optimism is where I'm at. However unlikely, if either Brock or Bennett came to MN somehow on a value deal it would be great. A player-friendly deal is not exciting. 

    I would agree with you, let the players who you drafted play unless it's a really safe play. I think the expiring contracts should just be left to the history books. Then upgrade Fred and resolve the Rossi deal one way or another. 

    Solidify a goaltender duo, and that would be fine with me. Nelson for three years seems like the most pragmatic thing. I.e. don't spend it's all in one place. A mid-season or deadline e trade could come along.

    I'd like to see the Wild make a play to get Knies. If they did that and added a top six center, that's solid upgrades without using all their cap space or getting too old. 

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    8 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    maybe because Zuccy is best friend of Kap (and you want to position yourself well with negotiations upcoming and not send Kap's bff packing) hell maybe even resign Zuccy for a team friendly 1 year contract for 3 mil. not to mention he can still play and would be cheaper than Rossi

    Zuccarello is already signed until he's 38. How much longer do you want to go?!?

    And Kaprizov knows how old the guy is. At some point Zuccarello is going to no longee be on this team, whether hes traded or retires. Kaprizov will be just fine. He's not some fragile minded wuss that can't handle a future without his friend and mentor Zuccarello.

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    14 hours ago, FredJohnson said:

    Not only could the team sign Kirill Kaprizov(which seems likely to happen)

     

    But but butt...I've been told repeatedly that we don't have a good enough roster to re-sign Kirill!! 🤨

    Would you sign here if you were him? If his only motivation is long term security and money, then probably. If he wants to win a Stanley Cup, definitely not. He could also recoup any money lost by signing somewhere else with advertising revenue, which is non-existent in flyover country. He likes it here and he has friends here, so he'll probably stay. I'm sure Leipold and Guerin are blowing smoke up his ass about building a cup winning team here all the time.

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    19 hours ago, Kato AK said:

    Chances are that Rossi will get something that looks like a bridge deal, less than $7M and 5 years at most.

    It feels like the opportunity for this to happen is no longer on the table but I’d love to be wrong

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    10 hours ago, joebou15 said:

    Zuccarello is already signed until he's 38. How much longer do you want to go?!?

    And Kaprizov knows how old the guy is. At some point Zuccarello is going to no longee be on this team, whether hes traded or retires. Kaprizov will be just fine. He's not some fragile minded wuss that can't handle a future without his friend and mentor Zuccarello.

    Well how about keeping Zuccy until Kap actually signs?

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    I can’t decide which is worse being constantly water boarded with pop-up ads on the mobile site or the never-ending page reloading where I have to scroll to find out where my last spot was before it reloads again

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    20 hours ago, Kato AK said:

    Thats kind of my point though. Rossi can only sign 1 offer sheet and rumors are that plenty of teams have interest in him. Let him sign an OS and have a bidding war for 7 days.

    To be honest, whoever gives him the offer sheet will probably be in the worst position to get him.

    Once a player signs an offer sheet, they cannot be traded. If the current team matches the offer, they typically cannot trade said player for one calendar year. If Rossi signs an offer sheet, the best Guerin could do is threaten to match to try and get more compensation from the team holding the offer sheet. Any bidding war for Rossi will happen before July 1st.

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    20 hours ago, Kato AK said:

    Thats kind of my point though. Rossi can only sign 1 offer sheet and rumors are that plenty of teams have interest in him. Let him sign an OS and have a bidding war for 7 days.

    To be honest, whoever gives him the offer sheet will probably be in the worst position to get him.

    Once a player signs an offer sheet, they cannot be traded. If the current team matches the offer, they typically cannot trade said player for one calendar year. If Rossi signs an offer sheet, the best Guerin could do is threaten to match to try and get more compensation from the team holding the offer sheet. Any bidding war for Rossi will happen before July 1st.

    Guerin should up his offer to $7.02M X 8 years to ensure any offer sheet compensation is a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd picks for next year. Rossi will then be seen as the bad guy somewhat if he turns down the same deal Boldy accepted. Likewise, there would still be teams interested in trading for Rossi at that number, where the compensation may be greater than an offer sheet.

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    1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    I can’t decide which is worse being constantly water boarded with pop-up ads on the mobile site or the never-ending page reloading where I have to scroll to find out where my last spot was before it reloads again

    Adblock. It works great 👍 

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    2 hours ago, Scalptrash said:

    . He could also recoup any money lost by signing somewhere else with advertising revenue, which is non-existent in flyover country. 

    Ahemmm!! Kwik Trip?

    If he won't sign here Rossi sure as hell won't.

     

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