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  • The Wild Dodged A Bullet With the Matthew Tkachuk Trade

    Image courtesy of Bruce Fedyck-USA Today Sports
    Tony Abbott

    By Tony Abbott -

    Minnesota Wild fans were bummed out last month when the division-rival Chicago Blackhawks got the first overall pick in the 2023 Draft. That gives them the right to draft Connor Bedard, of course, the NHL's most recent generational prospect. This always happens to Minnesota, the feeling went.

    But while that does suck, just remember: It always could be worse. Think back to last summer, when the Wild dodged a massive bullet with the blockbuster Matthew Tkachuk trade.

    No, the bullet they dodged wasn't passing on the opportunity to get the power forward. That was never on the table. The only way the Wild could've gotten his $9 million cap hit under the cap would have been trading Kirill Kaprizov. While that would be a fascinating "challenge trade," it'd be hard to make a move that seismic.

    No, the disaster that Minnesota averted was the Calgary Flames and Tkachuk choosing to land with the Florida Panthers as a trade suitor. It might stink to see the Wild flame out (again) in the first round while Tkachuk and the Panthers knocked off the President's Trophy-winning Boston Bruins, then flatten the 110-plus point Toronto Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes en route to a Stanley Cup Final.

    But it's still a much preferable outcome for Tkachuk to be succeeding in Florida than with one of the other major contenders for Tkachuk last summer. Imagine him with the St. Louis Blues.

    After all, Matthew's father Keith spent the back half of his career in St. Louis and raised him there. The Blues had the cap space, and had Jordan Kyrou as an attractive young asset to head back Calgary's way.

    The Blues ended Minnesota's 113-point dream season a year ago but mercifully suffered a collapse into irrelevance. They traded captain Ryan O'Reilly to the Toronto Maple Leafs. Jordan Binnington reverted back to being one of the worst goalies in the league. It was a great season of schadenfreude, we loved to see it.

    The Blues finished the season with 81 points, 14 points behind the Winnipeg Jets for the final wild card spot in the Western Conference. Would one player have made that much of a difference?

    In most cases, no. In this case, though? Maybe?

    If not for Connor McDavid, Tkachuk was the most valuable player in the NHL. Evolving-Hockey estimates his impact to be worth a whopping 9.3 Standings Points Above Replacement (SPAR). Even if you subtract Kyrou's value (2.4 SPAR) from the equation, that still represents a net gain of seven SPAR, a difference between 81 and 88 points in the standings. Suddenly, the Blues are within striking distance of the postseason. Maybe they aren't selling at the trade deadline.

    Tkachuk would also have addressed the Blues' biggest weakness: even-strength offense. Tkachuk made most of his value with how well he pushed the play at even strength. The part of his SPAR that comes from his even-strength dominance alone surpasses the total value of all but three NHL players: McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Elias Pettersson. That's breathtaking to read, but to see it is even more mind-boggling.

    image.png

    This straight-up shouldn't be possible, and it's not a result of Tkachuk playing with Sasha Barkov, either. He spent just 281 of his 1122 5-on-5 minutes with the dynamic center. Tkachuk elevated Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett (two solid players in their own right) to new heights. Verhaeghe scored a career-high 42 goals and 73 points, which no one saw coming. Bennett had a slight step back from 49 to 40 points, but that's still far more than he ever got with the Flames.

    Now let's look at the Blues' offense and ask ourselves whether they could've used Tkachuk's Jupiter-rivaling Big Red Spot in front of the net.

    image.png

    Imagine that kind of impact in the Central Division, not just for next year, but the seven years beyond that. The Dallas Stars are on the rise with Jason Robertson. The Avalanche are a juggernaut as long as they have Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar. And the Blackhawks now have Bedard to kickstart their rebuild. The Wild don't need to contend with Tkachuk terrorizing their crease for the rest of the 2020s.

    The Blues' descendency doesn't have too much of an impact on the Wild. One less competitive team in the division is always welcome. But as long as Minnesota focuses on having a good team, they shouldn't have to worry too much about making the postseason. Still, the State of Hockey can breathe a sigh of relief knowing they won't have to add Tkachuk to the gauntlet of stars Minnesota has to power through come playoff time.

    By Tony Abbott

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    mnfaninnc

    I sure do wish we could have gotten Matthew. Maybe, some way, we could get Brady? But that is a fight for another day.

    Now we need Cs, and we need to pick up 2 really good ones this draft. Maybe we did dodge a bullet not having Matthew in the division, but I think St. Louis would have needed to include Kyrou and another premium player. Huberdeau was better than Kyrou and FL gave up a very good defender. I'm thinking it might have cost them both Kyrou and Thomas + draft picks, unless they could convince Calgary that Parayko was in good health. 

     

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    vonlonster67
    1 hour ago, Protec said:

    Yes. This is true. 

    Then every time the Wild get whomp'd by a Tkachuk led team, I wouldn't have to remind everyone how Brackett is a blowbag...

    Please explain your Brackett comment?  Because he drafted Rossi? 

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    Protec
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    Please explain your Brackett comment?  Because he drafted Rossi? 

    Because he passed on Tkachuk for a Euro player who is now buried in Anahiem's farm system.

    That's how you get the guru title.

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    mnfaninnc
    18 hours ago, Protec said:

    A handful of years later he selected Rossi ahead of Lundell who coincidentally is also in the Cup final for Florida. 😁

    Guruism...

    Brackett, I believe, is very good at what he does. He has changed the way the Wild draft and has given us some pretty good hope of what's coming. However......

    It appears that Shooter has given Brackett carte blanche as far as the prospects go. This is where I believe the mistakes have come. Free reign isn't warranted here, Shooter needs to be a little more involved, specifically with rebalancing some of the criteria in rankings.

    If we need centers, and everyone here sees that hole, then centers is what we should be focusing on in this draft. If we need size in our forwards, then the size criteria should be emphasized. 

    Here's an interesting thing about Brackett's drafting, he takes plenty of guys from the CHL. He goes all over the leagues, however, many of the CHL guys he takes have come over from Europe. What is Brackett's fixation on the European player? This might also be an item that Shooter needs to rebalance, because we appear to be out of balance in this area. 

    Related to this is our current situation. We've got a large amount of 6' 185 lb. defenders, most of which will end up in Iowa, either with the Wild or Heartlanders. With the amount of players, and wanting to get them playing, it seems to me that we will be using the Heartlanders roster a bit more. TOI is what these kids need. Point of reference is that almost every drafted MLB player will go to the rookie league to start and work their way up for 5-6 years through the system. It could be that the Wild will use the E as an important part of their development program. Honestly, this is a good thing.

    The Wild also have a whole bunch of young wing prospects, mainly LWs. Not all will make our roster. If I were drafting, I'd try to concentrate on centers and RWs in the next to drafts if taking forwards, we have too many LWs. Develop them well, but know that some will need to be traded out to fill our holes. 

    Herein lies the problem. We have the #1 rated prospect cupboard, but we haven't engaged in making the trades we need to fill our holes. It just seems to me that these lower level deals could be made today, we don't have to wait for the draft. We don't have to wait for the SCF. Shooter has made it known that he is willing to deal win-win trades, and not try to screw anyone over. Surely there are other GMs with the same philosophy.

    I did watch the presser with McLean being announced as the new Iowa coach. Early on in that press conference, Guerin took out his phone, looked at it and was about to stick it back in his pocket when he just put it on the table. I wonder who was calling?  A GM? Or did he need to pick up milk and eggs on the way home?

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    Willy the poor boy
    13 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    He has changed the Shooter has made it known that he is willing to deal win-win trades, and not try to screw anyone over. Surely there are other GMs with the same philosophy.

     

    Oh sure, there are GM's that will do a trade like that but unlike BG, they will only do it if that's the only way to get it done. There are 32 GM positions, you don't get them or keep them being a nice guy with trades to the other GM's who are trying to take advantage of the situation to keep their jobs and put a winning team on the ice. 

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    mnfaninnc
    12 minutes ago, Willy the poor boy said:

    There are 32 GM positions, you don't get them or keep them being a nice guy with trades to the other GM's who are trying to take advantage of the situation to keep their jobs and put a winning team on the ice. 

    I don't know that Shooter's being "nice" to the other GMs. He simply has stated that he's not trying to screw them. In other words, he's willing to give fair value for a player, but also expects fair value back. 

    Looking at some of his deals, he was willing to help out other GMs when they needed help (like with cap). I'd say he probably built a relationship with Doug Armstrong, Kyle Dubas, Don Sweeny, and Brian MacLellan just by being the 3rd party. He seems to have a rapport with Pierre Dorian, and I'd say some of the guys he played against who are now GMs. 

    He'd probably have to stay away from guys like Lou Lamorillo, who I think really tried to screw him in the Parise talks. Pat Verbeek and Steve Yzerman were other trade partners he engaged this season, and should I forget Chris Drury. 

    I suppose there are a lot of organizational items GMs are dealing with, like finding assistant coaches, new head coaches, etc..., but you'd think that some of the more stable organizations should be willing to talk deal that doesn't involve draft picks. As a team having the #1 prospect pool, I'd have to believe that we have stuff others are looking for.

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    gopherit
    19 hours ago, Protec said:

    Because he passed on Tkachuk for a Euro player who is now buried in Anahiem's farm system.

    That's how you get the guru title.

    So I've refrained from responding to these posts for awhile now to maintain my "lurker" status but I feel it's come to a point where this (incorrect) narrative has been pushed so frequently that it distracts from the real criticisms/concerns/questions/discussions we should be having over Brackett's drafting abilities.

    To set the record straight, The Athletic wrote an exposé on JB following his departure from the Canucks that shed a ton of light on his time with the club. Most of the points outlined in the article have been reiterated by Canucks' reporters, fans, and bloggers. 

    1. Brackett has never labeled himself as a "guru" -- instead it was Vancouver's marketing department that propped him up beginning in 2010 in order to project a sense of organizational aptitude to its fanbase and the hockey community as a whole. He's always shown promise and signs of being one, but it's important to include the backstory to keep expectations realistic.
    2. Judd did not take Juolevi over Tkachuk, Benning did. Yes, Judd Brackett was the director of amateur scouting at the time (albeit it was his first draft under the new role); HOWEVER, Juolevi was not his pick. It's been widely reported that Juolevi was long the apple of Jim Benning's eye in the lead-up to the draft. Benning and his assistant GM attended the U18 World Championships where Juolevi shined on a loaded Finnish squad. That performance was enough to convince Benning to draft Juolevi despite his scouts' reservations. Judd has remained silent on who he would've drafted because he's a professional. However, we do know from sources within the organization that Brackett and his staff would've selected a different player if it were up to them. This last part is important as it caused a major internal riff between the two with Brackett (& scouts within his dept.) feeling disrespected over Benning's seemingly dismissal of the input his scouting department provided.
    3. Brackett didn't take control until 2017. To mend the riff, the front office gave Brackett more autonomy from 2017 through 2019. To quote The Athletic:

      """
      From 2017 through to the club’s most recent draft in 2019, the Canucks’ approach at the draft table shifted. Brackett’s input into the process resonated more loudly in shaping the flow of scouting meetings and the ultimate composition of the draft list going forward.

      There’s a sharp contrast that’s immediately evident when you look at the club’s three late-round picks in 2016 — mostly overagers or toolsy players who struggled to produce at the junior level — with what came after it in 2017, 2018 and 2019. There was a renewed emphasis on high-end skill and production. It was evident throughout the club’s draft order.

      Much has been made locally of the debate about the fifth overall pick in 2017. The Canucks selected Elias Pettersson, he changed everything in Vancouver, and the rest is history.

      Credible whispers have persisted, however, that Benning preferred Cody Glass. There are internal voices who believe that, if Benning had his way, Glass would’ve been the Canucks’ pick.
      """

    4. Brackett's track record in VAN is difficult to judge. It's worth noting that Brackett was "stripped of his authority" on Day 2 of the 2019 Draft -- calling into question how much he should be held accountable for not only the selection of Podkolzin over Boldy but almost all of the picks he made as director of amateur scouting under Jim Benning. As we know Brackett was not given full autonomy and Benning liked to be very involved in the draft process (being a former scout + the son of a longtime scout). 

     

    Hopefully that helps clear up some of the confusion/misinformation regarding his time in Vancouver.

     

    As for my take on JB, I feel it's too early to change course. That being said, I do have my concerns. Namely,

    • His late round picks in VAN have been underwhelming. Beyond his top picks in the 2017 & 2018 drafts, the rest were expected to break out this season but didn't. This is especially concerning as most of them fit the same profiles as ones he's used to build our prospect pool. 
    • Taking Podkolzin over Boldy. Given Point #4, idk how much of a say he had in selecting Podkolzin over players like Boldy. If it was his decision, that's concerning.
    • The surplus of prospects that fit the same profile. Normally, I'd say this is a good sign as it's usually indicative of an organization with a clear vision with regards to roster construction and a draft strategy that prioritizes Best Player Available > Organizational Need. The vision component seems clear, albeit concerning given we lack a single positional prospect with star upside. I'm beginning to question if we truly are selecting BPA or if pundits have conflated the quantity of decent prospects with quality. 
    • A prospect pool that lacks franchise positional players. Hopefully I'm proven wrong but our current pipeline screams "mediocrity". The general rule of thumb is that if you want to build a dynasty, you need at least these 3 traditional franchise pieces: an elite center that's among the best in the league, a top-line center to play behind your otherworldly center, and an elite two-way No. 1 defensemen. That last piece seems to be especially crucial in today's game as they receive the biggest boost in GSVA during the playoffs. In fact, they trail only the goaltender for most impactful player. Even if every prospect reaches their projected potential, we will still have a team that lacks all 3 pieces -- making it nearly impossible to win a cup. I fear the 2020s will look nearly identical to the 2010s -- mediocre teams filled to the brim with good, not great players. Kaprizov, Boldy, & Wallstedt will be our star players but the inability to acquire a franchise center (let alone 2) -- combined with a ludicrous amount of quality defensemen that will surely prevent us from ever developing a Makar or Hedman of our own -- will be our downfall. 

     

    I will continue to hold out hope though as teams have been able to find one or more traditional franchise pieces outside the top 16, such as Boston* (Bergeron - 2nd, Krejci - 2nd, McAvoy - 14th ovr....within reach, Marchand - 3rd, Pastrnak - late 1st), Tampa** (Point - 3rd, Kucherov - 2nd, et al), Dallas (Hintz - 2nd, Robertson - 2nd), Carolina (Aho - 2nd), Pittsburgh*** (Letang - 3rd, Guentzal - 3rd), Chicago*** (Keith - 2nd), etc. 

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    Willy the poor boy
    4 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I don't know that Shooter's being "nice" to the other GMs. He simply has stated that he's not trying to screw them. In other words, he's willing to give fair value for a player, but also expects fair value back. 

    I'm talking more about the Fiala deal and the Gus deal. While both have arguably worked out to this point, he needs to maximize those trades. You can't just take the first 'fair deal' that comes along.

    I highly doubt many, if any, GM's work like that and I doubt any of those are looking to return any favors when they can. As a GM you have an obligation to the Org. and the fans, not some other teams GM.

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    Protec

    ^^^ 

    While I would agree with that GMBG has done well in areas to make up for what few places he might have got lesser returns. I'm willing to wait out this year and see what happens. If Rossi doesn't make it and Boldy can't do shit in the playoffs it will be another nail in the coffin. Maybe not the final nail but the progress is bogging down.

    Vagas and Seattle going deep/deeper into the playoffs than MN who are essentially the Toronto of the West which might as well be the Columbus cause it's still no closer to a Cup.

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    mnfaninnc
    4 hours ago, Willy the poor boy said:

    I'm talking more about the Fiala deal and the Gus deal. While both have arguably worked out to this point, he needs to maximize those trades. You can't just take the first 'fair deal' that comes along.

    I highly doubt many, if any, GM's work like that and I doubt any of those are looking to return any favors when they can. As a GM you have an obligation to the Org. and the fans, not some other teams GM.

    I'm still convinced on Fiala Shooter didn't have a lot to work with. I think Fiala was heading to LA after his RFA status was complete and Shooter got what he could a year early. 

    On Gustavsson, he knew the prospect. I'm sure he had a brief conversation with a few GMs before giving Dorian a call. After Talbot's agent popped off on a tv interview, talking like Mr. Tough Guy, I believe Shooter's phone went off from anyone looking for a goalie. 

    Since Guerin is relatively new as a GM, he's still building relationships. At some point, these deals and good faith will come back around to his benefit. Yes, a GM is supposed to look out for his team first, and get what he can with their assets. That's a given. But, Guerin has also been willing to work with players to find them the best situations, and work with other GMs to overcome difficulties (like cap help). If you were another team's GM and needed to move a player, where would you go, to Lou Lamorillo or Shooter? Lou's going to squeeze you for everything he can. Shooter is going to give you a fair deal.

    Look at how quickly Guerin was able to move up to take The Wall. He gave Edmonton a nice pick to move up a couple of slots. It worked really efficiently. I'm really surprised he hasn't done business really with Ron Francis. Francis is very deliberate in his moves, but if he can find a guy who's not out to screw him, that's a nice ally to have. Francis did do Guerin a solid taking Rask for the last few games, maybe they can work together again?

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