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  • The Wild Dodged A Bullet With Jared Spurgeron's Injury


    Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images
    Robert Brent

    The Minnesota Wild have had bad luck with injuries recently. Joel Eriksson Ek, Kirill Kaprizov, and Jacob Middleton headline the list of players who have missed time for a team with contending aspirations. Then, on New Year's Eve Night, another disaster struck. Zachary L'Heureux slew-footed Jared Spurgeon, and it looked like it may result in a serious injury.

    Luckily for the Wild, the injury wasn't as critical as initially feared. Bill Guerin confirmed Spurgeon was week to week instead of losing the player long-term.

    "It's not as bad as we originally thought," Guerin told reporters in Washington. "It's still bad enough because he's not in our lineup."

    While the Wild will undoubtedly miss Spurgeon for a few weeks, they dodged a major bullet because their captain doesn’t need surgery after the hit.

    Spurgeon Putting Together An Excellent Season

    The Wild are fortunate that Spurgeon will only be out short term because he’s having another excellent campaign on the blue line. 

    The Wild have gotten fantastic performances from several key players, but people haven’t fully appreciated Jared Spurgeon’s efforts. The Wild’s captain has been such a steady force for the team for years that it’s easy to overlook that he’s still one of the league’s best defensemen.

    His scoring is a bit down this season, but he’s still contributing with 13 points in 32 games. Still, his stalwart defensive play is his strength. According to naturalstattrick.com, among defenders that have played more than 100 minutes, Spurgeon ranks 13th in expected goals against per 60 minutes with just 1.94. 

    His defensive acumen is a significant part of why his coaches trust him in high-leverage situations. His 57.14% expected on-ice goals percentage makes him the 19th-best defender in the league in that metric. Even more impressive is that Spurgeon has produced fantastic results no matter his situation. 

    Of the Wild’s seven different defensive pairings that have played at least 100 minutes together this season, Spurgeon is in their top two units by xGoals%.

    (Source: Moneypuck.com)

    Screenshot 2025-01-06 at 2.15.22 PM.png

    Spurgeon is having a productive season and is still a top contributor to the team’s success. The Wild rely on their team defense to win games, so losing their captain long-term to an injury could have been disastrous.

    Spurgeon Is the Wild’s Most Steady Force

    Spurgeon has been a crucial player for the Wild since the 2010-11 season. Still, people around the league continue to undervalue him. That said, we must examine how good Spurgeon has been in the past to contextualize how much losing him would have hurt the team.

    As mentioned, Spurgeon has anchored the Wild’s top two defensive pairs regarding expected goals% this year. Looking back through his career, that’s been the case nearly every year, including a run of seven seasons in a row. 

    Screenshot 2025-01-06 at 2.16.21 PM.png

    Screenshot 2025-01-06 at 2.17.02 PM.png

    Perhaps most impressive about this run is that he accomplished the feat with four partners: Jonas Brodin, Jake Middleton, Alex Goligoski, and Ryan Suter. Spurgeon has fantastic results no matter who he plays with; this isn’t the case of the team finding a pairing that works for him. 

    Spurgeon’s run of dominance for the Wild goes further back than that. He’s been a part of the Wild’s top three pairings in xGoals% every season of his career. Spurgeon has been a stalwart defender on Minnesota’s best pairing for 11 of his 15 NHL seasons. 

    With defensive excellence and a decent ability to contribute offensively with 397 points in 799 career games, Spurgeon should be considered among the league’s most crucial defenders to their team. Unfortunately, he’s never gotten that kind of recognition, with his highest Norris Trophy result being 13th. 

    Spurgeon may not be as appreciated as he should be league-wide, but Minnesota knows how crucial it is to keep him on the ice. Unfortunately, that’s become an issue in recent years.

    Spurgeon’s Health Is An Annual Problem

    Spurgeon remains one of the Wild’s best assets, but his health has also been an increasingly significant problem as he ages. The defender played in just 16 games last season after back and hip issues caused him to miss most of the season. 

    The absence of one of the team’s best players was potentially a big reason for the disappointing season. Last year isn’t the only instance of Spurgeon missing time, either. The defender has played 70 games in a season only once since the 2019-20 season. 

    At 35 years old, Spurgeon’s health will only be more challenging to maintain. Given that he’s an essential part of the team, the issue is how Minnesota intends to keep Spurgeon healthy

    The Wild have employed a few tactics to keep their captain on the ice this season. The most vital of those tactics is his deployment.

    Spurgeon is averaging 20:43 on ice time per game this season. That number is the lowest usage of his career since his rookie season. Spurgeon is playing a lot less on the penalty kill, in particular, playing just 23.2 minutes short-handed in his 32 games this season. For comparison, he played 60.2 minutes on the penalty kill in 16 games last year. 

    The Wild are trying to keep Spurgeon healthy this year. Still, with injuries like the one he suffered after Zach L’Heureux’s slew foot or his short-term absence in October, it’s clear that the 35-year-old’s health will continue to be a vital story for Minnesota this season. The good news is that the Wild continue to play well even with injury problems. 

    Minnesota suffered a few setbacks but has now won three games in a row. If the team continues their winning ways, letting Spurgeon take as long as he needs to return may be helpful. As important as he is, the team will need him for the playoff push. Ultimately, they’re incredibly fortunate his recent injury isn’t keeping him out for the season. 

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    Luckily, Middleton's return from the broken finger is imminent. Hynes wasn't sure if it would be the next game, but Middleton is very close to coming back.

    Hopefully Spurgeon heals up well and the Wild can close the season strong.

    It would be really nice if the Wild could go into the playoffs this time not having key players missing or a shell of themselves due to injuries sustained.

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    If Spurgeon was 4 Inches taller and everything else was identical he would be considered one of the best in the game. The people obsessed with size over results are pretty weird.

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    7 minutes ago, Patrick said:

    If Spurgeon was 4 Inches taller and everything else was identical he would be considered one of the best in the game. The people obsessed with size over results are pretty weird.

    I think you also missed 30 lbs. heavier.

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    Counterpoint- While this was a nice article about how much Tank has given the Wild over the years, we also need to veer towards right now. I don't wish injury on anyone, however, had Spurgy been out until about playoff time, that $7.5m in cap space could have added a guy like Forsberg immediately, and we backfill the defensive spot with Lambos/Jiricek. Both of those guys need NHL minutes too. 

    We likely don't get as good a performance out of the 2 D players, but it is offset by Forsberg's offense which gets us a much better player for the playoffs. Anyone remember when Patrick Kane went down, had to go on LTIR and was ready to go, conveniently, just before the playoffs began. In fact, they held him out a few games to be cap compliant. This would be the blueprint for the TBL/VGK method of having Kucherov/Stone suddenly eat from the tree of health just before playoff time. 

    While we have cap constraints on us for the year, freeing up half of that and being able to resign/continue with the player when cap frees up next season would have really helped our chances this year. 

    If Jiricek or Lambos or Buium panned out immediately, we could bump Spurgeon down the lineup even further come playoff time. Say what you'd like about what Spurgeon has meant to the club in the regular season, and it's been really positive, in the playoffs, the stats bare out that he struggles and the team struggles. Having the luxury of a Spurgy on the 2nd or 3rd pairing, though, would mean a lot, I think. 

    The argument here is that Spurgy would give us a good 2nd half boost of play in the defensive spot (and who knows about other injuries). But, again, this is regular season. We've banked enough points for a slight downgrade at that position followed by a boost in the L2W category currently being held down by Marcus Johansson. This is not a high bar to really improve, and it improves us in our main weakness. 

    I realize this will likely be an unpopular take, but sometimes deep playoff runs are due to timing, and having a timing issue here to our favor, giving the replacement player plenty of time to build chemistry and then getting the other highly paid player back for the playoffs is exactly how 3 teams have won Stanley Cups (at least 3). 

    Now with the good news of Spurgy only being out 2-3 weeks, this opportunity has passed us by. The bullet we dodged might have been the exact one we needed to take.

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