By Tony Abbott -
The Minnesota Wild woke up on the Wednesday after their overtime victory over the Nashville Predators still in desperate need of saving their season. Two straight wins in the books are nice, but Minnesota is still three points back of a playoff spot, needing to jump at least three teams to secure a Wild Card spot. That's a tall order, especially given that the Wild are still struggling at 5-on-5, ranking 25th in terms of controlling the expected goal share.
Things aren't looking great, but they would be looking a lot worse if it weren't for Marcus Johansson's heroics.
Johansson is the talk of the league on Wednesday morning because of a controversial awarded goal to give the Wild an overtime victory on Tuesday. But we wouldn't be talking about Johansson today if that were his only big moment for the team. We can see his fingerprints all over the few, precious points Minnesota's banked this month.
He's had a hand in the following goals:
- Assisting on Danila Yurov's first career goal, which stood as the game-winner against the New York Rangers.
- Scoring to spark a comeback from a 2-0 deficit to take a point against the San Jose Sharks.
- Netting the go-ahead goal in the third period to help secure another point against the Winnipeg Jets.
Including last night's overtime goal, we're talking about four of Minnesota's 13 standings points that you can give Johansson a ton of credit for. And while those moments are huge, it doesn't quite scratch the surface of just how good he's been for the Wild so far this season.
Johansson is one of six Wild players (Zach Bogosian, Matt Boldy, Jonas Brodin, Marco Rossi, and Kirill Kaprizov being the others) to out-score opponents at 5-on-5. He's in a virtual tie with Rossi for the team lead in expected goal share at 5-on-5 (57.6%). No one else comes particularly close. Boldy is third on the team (51.8%), and Bogosian (51.5%) and... Yakov Trenin??? (50.6%) are the only other players above 50%.
The Wild aren't a particularly good team at either end of the ice, but Johansson has been able to both push the pace on offense (3.24 5-on-5 xG for per hour, 1st on the team) and defend (2.39 5-on-5 xG against per hour, second to Rossi). Johansson isn't just getting results, but he's earning them at both sides of the ice.
It's a bit shocking to see this from a 35-year-old who's taken slings and arrows from the fans and media (including these here parts) throughout his stints in Minnesota. In the latter half of his career, Johansson has often been a player whose on-ice production is usually less than the sum of its analytically solid components. He carries the puck up the ice and drives play, but it often results in fewer goals than it "should" based on that skill set.
But when it works? It looks like this, and Johansson's start has him among the best players in the NHL so far this season. Johansson is tied for 12th in the NHL in Standings Points Above Replacement (1.6), and is ahead of perennial MVP candidates like Leon Draisaitl (1.5) and Nathan MacKinnon (1.5). It's early, and the sample size is small, but that's still an insane performance.
It's hard to even put a finger on why this explosion is coming now. Sure, Johansson has been playing on the top line with Kaprizov right now, and that's always going to help, but it's not like he's been attached at the hip to Kaprizov. Just 43.3% of Johansson's 5-on-5 minutes have come with Dolla Bill Kirill, and remarkably, the Wild are scoring fewer goals with Johansson and Kaprizov on the ice than they are when Johansson isn't with Kaprizov.
It's also tempting to dismiss it as a fluky hot streak, like the one Johansson enjoyed when the Wild traded for him at the 2023 trade deadline. He jelled as Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek's puck-carrier, posting a staggering 18 points in 20 games. But that was fueled by an absurd 12.3% team shooting percentage at 5-on-5. If Johansson's 9.2% on-ice shooting percentage looks superhuman now, it's only in comparison to the team's shockingly low 6.3% mark.
As for the rest of his game, nothing seems to have changed dramatically. Johansson hasn't suddenly become a volume shooter, and he doesn't look significantly more aggressive with the puck. The skill plays have always been there, but they're just working out more. So does that mean a regression is coming?
In the sense that he's currently on pace to more than double his point total from last season (70 after a 31-point season), sure. You can confidently predict that Johansson won't break his career-high of 58 points. But two things might indicate that Johansson's streak isn't a pure mirage.
The first is that Minnesota's second power play might just be good now. Johansson's already scored five power play points this season, one fewer than he had all of last season. Rossi's been on that unit full-time, and right now it also includes Brock Faber and Zeev Buium. Combine that with Kaprizov often getting a full two minutes on the power play, and you can see the points continuing to arrive from that unit.
Then there's the fact that Johansson's role isn't going away anytime soon. Mats Zuccarello may be nearing a return, but Minnesota will still have room for a puck-moving winger. Kaprizov and Zuccarello, presumably, would be on the top line, and Boldy is the only lock to be ahead of Johansson on a wing depth chart. Johansson's production and chemistry with Rossi probably have him on the inside track for that spot opposite Boldy. Vladimir Tarasenko has been whelming, at best, and Danila Yurov and Liam Öhgren are no threat to overtake Johansson in the near future.
But even if he slips back into the Johansson of old once Zuccarello comes back... who cares? At $800k, Johansson has already more-than-delivered a solid return on investment for the Wild. He hasn't been just a statistical bright spot for Minnesota, scoring empty-calorie points for a team fading from contention. He's been one of the only reasons the Wild are even threatening to pull themselves together and make a run to the playoffs.
If Minnesota can do that, then Johansson will deserve some major flowers for being part of the team's success, regardless of what happens with his stats from here.
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