By Tony Abbott -
On Monday, the Minnesota Wild overcame a 5-2 deficit to explode into a 10-7 win. They did this against the Vancouver Canucks, who were (and remain) on top of the NHL standings. The Wild proved that they could handle anything.
On Tuesday, the Wild faced off against the Winnipeg Jets with a chance to tie the St. Louis Blues for the final Wild Card spot. It could have been the first time all season they had enough points to be in the playoff bubble. In losing 6-3 to the Jets, the Wild proved they could handle anything... except success.
This was the third time this season that Minnesota controlled their own destiny to make it into legitimate playoff competition. The first was on December 30, when the Wild had a home-and-home following their 11-3-0 run under new coach John Hynes. Two regulation wins, and the Wild would have tied for the final Wild Card spot. Instead, they got swept by the Jets, the start of a 1-7-1 stretch.
Going into January 25, the Wild bounced back with a 4-1-0 run that brought them within four points of the Nashville Predators. All they had to do was win two home games before the All-Star Break, one against the Preds and the other against the cellar-dwelling Anaheim Ducks. Nope. Minnesota sabotaged themselves with two blown third-period leads and went into the break six points behind Nashville for that second Wild Card spot.
Six games, five wins, and 11 standings points later, Minnesota was in a position to tie St. Louis for the final Wild Card spot. The Wild might have been in Winnipeg on the second night of a back-to-back, but the Jets also played on Monday, so they had no rest advantage. Winnipeg started Laurent Brossoit in net instead of MVP candidate Connor Hellebuyck. Minnesota's backs were to the wall, while the Jets enjoyed an 11-point lead in their third-place spot in the Central Division. This game was the Wild's for the taking.
So, of course, they blew their third golden opportunity.
Look, it's not like Minnesota didn't show up at all. "I thought the chance generation, the expected goals, the chances for, the O-zone time, I think lots of those things were in our favor," Hynes said post-game. "I think the process to get to those chances was good, but when you get that many looks... you gotta find a way to get it in the back of the net."
Hynes wasn't wrong about the jump the Wild showed in the 'Peg. Minnesota handled the Jets in terms of expected goals in all situations and 5-on-5. Marc-Andre Fleury could have easily flipped the score if he brought his A-Game, and Brossoit was even good rather than great.
The problem, of course, is that it wasn't. When you're constantly playing from behind in the standings, your eternal problem is that there are no moral victories. That's the position the Wild has put themselves in with their slow start and mid-season funk. Minnesota used up all of its margin for error before the calendar flipped to March.
It's frustrating to watch. Worse yet, old methods of self-sabotage came back to bite them. Fleury is Minnesota's 39-year-old de facto No. 1 starter, with Filip Gustavsson still struggling. He bounced back from looking like The Old Fleury to an old Fleury, surrendering two goals in 14 seconds to put the Wild in a 0-2 hole. Yes, one of those goals was on the power play, but the 2-0 goal from Mason Appleton carried an expected goal value of 2.2, per Evolving-Hockey.
You don't want to blame a goalie pushing 40 for not saving your season. A lot has to go wrong before getting to that point. Still, that can't go in, and definitely not 14 seconds after the Jets break a scoreless tie.
Hynes might have had a good head on his shoulders after the game, but he wasn't blameless from the Wild's self-sabotage. Coaches are generally loathe to mess with a winning lineup. But coming off the biggest win of the season, Hynes altered his lines, swapping out Marco Rossi for Ryan Hartman to center the second line, bumping Rossi to the fourth.
Credit to Rossi, he responded with two goals and a team-high five shots. But he'd also had two goals and an assist over his previous four games. Why send a message like that to that player, at that time, going into a massive game with the potential to swing the season?
It didn't seem to help second-line wingers Marcus Johansson and Mats Zuccarello to have Hartman anchoring them. They combined for four shots (one for Johansson, three for Zuccarello), and Zuccarello's lone assist came on the power play without Johansson and Hartman on the ice.
Meanwhile, Hartman had three shots. But he also took an ill-timed penalty in the third period, leading to Winnipeg extending their lead from 3-1 to 4-1. Call it a ticky-tack call, but Hartman has taken the fifth-most minor penalties in the NHL over the past three years (85). Did Hynes not see that coming against a chippy team like the Jets?
You can point to Rossi's two-goal game as a sign of it working out, but:
1. Minnesota still lost.
2. The second line still provided no scoring to lift a relatively quiet night from the top line.
3. Rossi's goals came on the power play while Hynes double-shifted Kaprizov on the fourth line.
Other than potentially sending a message, being on the fourth line didn't actually spur him. Playing with his most talented teammates did.
Competitive hockey is fun to watch. Seeing stuff like Joel Eriksson Ek, Kirill Kaprizov, and Matt Boldy on the top line wrecking everyone in sight is a blast. If they can turn that momentum into strong play at opportune times, a charge toward the playoffs could be exciting for fans.
If they keep losing when they have an opportunity to enter the playoff picture, as they've done for a third time, that's a much different story. Then the 5-0-1 stretches aren't evidence that better things are on the way. They're potential hindrances to a brighter future.
Entering their first post-All-Star Break game, Minnesota sat at 26th in the standings and five points out of a playoff spot. The Wild might have narrowed that gap to two behind St. Louis and Nashville, who did take care of business last night. But after air-balling in Winnipeg, they're still a non-playoff team... just one that's 21st in the standings.
All they have to show for it now is going from the seventh-best lottery odds to the 12th. That's bad territory because even if Minnesota wins the lottery in that spot, they can't even pick first overall.
It's the worst outcome to neither get to the playoffs nor a top pick. But then again, that's thematically fitting for what the 2023-24 Wild have been. They've self-sabotaged at every turn on the ice this season. Playing just good enough to barely miss the playoffs is the best way to be your own worst enemy on an organizational level.
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