By Robert Brent -
Although they’ve lost five of seven games, it's difficult to call the Minnesota Wild's season anything but a success. The team is in a playoff spot and is far outpacing expectations for the club coming into the season. However, the Wild have started losing recently due to injuries and poor special teams play. They're 4-6-0 in their last ten games but still have some encouraging wins.
Even with Kirill Kaprizov sidelined, they pulled off a 3-2 overtime victory over the Dallas Stars on Dec. 27. The Wild have struggled against Dallas recently, losing nine of their last 10 matchups. Brock Faber ended the game in overtime for one of the team's signature wins.
The win against Dallas was exciting in a vacuum, but it's part of Minnesota's even more critical storyline. The Wild are looking to make the jump this year to become one of the Western Conference's elite teams, and a comeback win over a consistent contender like Dallas is a crucial step in that process.
Results Lacking Against Conference Elite
Minnesota may have the third most points in the standings with 48 in 37 games. However, a concerning trend lies beneath the team’s sterling record. The team is having a difficult time beating their conference counterparts. So far this season, the Wild are 3-7-1 against teams that hold a Western Conference playoff spot. In those 11 games, they’ve been outscored 39-19.
The Wild’s inability to fully break into the conference elite has been an issue for the team for years. The team has regularly made the playoffs, reaching the postseason seven of the last nine seasons. However, they have failed to advance to the second round in any of those appearances. It’s been impossible to call the Wild a bad team, but they also haven’t been good enough to win in the playoffs.
If Minnesota aspires to join the league’s elite and contend, it must start doing better against quality competition. Those aspirations are also reasonable. The team is ready for success with an elite defense, a strong young core, and a bonafide superstar in Kirill Kaprizov. The Wild’s competitive window is open.
However, the Wild must still prove they can beat the West’s best teams.
How the Wild Stack Up
What separates the Wild from the top teams in the Western Conference?
When you analyze the qualities of great teams that consistently make playoff runs and finish at the top of the conference, there are some clear areas where the Wild struggle and other categories where they belong in the top echelon.
Special teams are Minnesota’s greatest weakness. The penalty kill gets a lot of coverage because Minnesota ranks 30th in the league in penalty killing with a 70% rate.
That's abysmal, but their powerplay isn't doing them many favors. The Wild rank 24th in powerplay percentage, converting on 17% of their chances. One way to get a general understanding of a club's special team's acumen is to combine their power play and penalty kill percentage and see how it stacks up. Minnesota’s combined special teams number is 87.9. That's the worst among teams in a playoff spot in the Western Conference.
The Wild aren’t just last; they’re lagging behind the Edmonton Oilers by a significant margin. Everyone who watches Minnesota knows that special teams are an issue, but this is an emergency. Fortunately, the Wild can overcome this problem with one of their main strengths: limiting offense at even strength.
According to Moneypuck.com, the Wild rank second in the NHL at even-strength expected goals against per 60. Another Western Conference team, the Los Angeles Kings, is the only team with a better rating than Minnesota.
The Wild have spent a lot of resources building their defensive corps, and it’s paying off by making the team an elite defensive force. Minnesota’s defense has allowed them to get better quality of play in most games. They currently rank ninth in expected goals percentage, along with other top Western Conference teams like the Kings, Oilers, Stars, and the Colorado Avalanche.
We’ve looked at a few key stats in a vacuum, but this includes every game they play. However, the Wild must perform against the conference’s best teams. Let’s examine how they fare in those games they’ve played.
The table below shows the results of every game the Wild have played this season against a Western Conference team currently in a playoff spot. It shows each team’s expected goals and the actual result.
If each game went “as expected,” Minnesota’s record would stand at three wins and eight losses, equal to the actual results of 3-7-1. The Wild’s struggles against Western Conference playoff teams are not a result of bad luck. Instead, they’re struggling to reproduce their positive results against quality opponents.
The Wild Can Flip the Script
Luckily for the Wild, there is always a chance to produce better results. They took their first step towards doing so over the weekend when they defeated the Stars without Kaprizov. The Wild struggled with key injuries before the bombshell dropped that Kaprizov wouldn't be playing due to a lower-body injury. Kaprizov has been the Wild's sole steady presence offensively this season, and the team has struggled to score.
The win showed that this year's Wild team has the potential to be different. Minnesota floundered last season when they were overwhelmed with injuries, which sunk their season. Despite overwhelming odds, the Wild pulled out an overtime win that showed resilience against a top team. While it's great to beat teams the Wild should beat, they'll need wins against the one like Dallas to truly break into the conference's elite tier.
The Wild can cement their status as an elite team by further developing their identity. The best teams in the league often have an easily identifiable trait about their style of play. The Oilers have enough offense to compensate for their defensive shortcomings. The Winnipeg Jets have Connor Hellebuyck in their crease. The Vegas Golden Knights ruthlessly improve their roster. Minnesota is masterful defensively. A couple of weeks ago, the Wild traded for David Jiříček, signaling further commitment to their defensive prospects.
Suppose the Wild can slightly improve their depth scoring and special teams while continuing to be one of the best defensive teams in the league. Then, they should improve its stock as one of the West's best teams. The pieces are in place; they must put it all together.
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