By Justin Wiggins -
Publicly, the Minnesota Wild's brass are saying the right things.
Following just their second season in a decade of failing to make the playoffs, the Wild didn’t have much cap or roster space this summer to meaningfully improve their team. Returning almost the same roster next year does not exactly excite their rabid fan base, which is hungry for a long playoff run.
Even with mostly the same roster, head coach John Hynes seems optimistic that plenty of internal candidates can improve their chances this year with bounce-back seasons. He's not entirely wrong, whether that be through improved health or performance. But a quick look around the Central Division makes you wonder if that will even be enough.
The Central looks to be turning into a gauntlet for the Wild. A wild card playoff berth is always an option, but there’s a reason coaches and GMs put so much stock in their standing within the division. Each division in the Western Conference receives three automatic bids to the playoffs, with the remaining ten teams vying for the final two wild card spots.
The math is easy: focus on the three spots available for the eight teams within the division versus the randomness that can be the two wild card spots available for the remaining ten teams in the conference.
It’s easy to see why the focus starts within your own division. However, while the Wild mostly treaded water this summer, nearly everyone around them improved their outlook or remained a Stanley Cup contender.
Let’s start at the top, where the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars look again to be the cream of the crop in the division. Even if you want to scrutinize the merry-go-round of the blue line situation in Dallas, the Wild are not close to challenging them for a higher finish within the division.
And with a single two-sentence paragraph, the Central division playoff locks are down to one. Last season, the Wild were among the favorites to finish in the top three. But this year? It’s quickly becoming a different story.
Let’s start with the other three teams the Wild finished behind last year. They plummeted to a sixth-place finish in the division. The Winnipeg Jets and Nashville Predators qualified for the playoffs, and while both were first-round exits, they were far and away better teams than Minnesota.
Winnipeg finished 23 points ahead of the Wild. While some key pieces departed in free agency this month, it’s difficult to see the Wild bridging that gap, even if their vets stay healthy and improve.
The Predators might have been the biggest winner in free agency, inking Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei to long-term contracts. While those deals may start to sour towards the end, Nashville is a much-improved team now compared to the one that finished 12 points ahead of Minnesota.
Suppose Minnesota gets a bounce-back season from Ryan Hartman, Marcus Johansson, and Frederick Gaudreau, plus better injury luck for Jared Spurgeon and Marcus Foligno. Still, does anyone think it would be enough to bridge that 12-point gap and then some? For a team that will likely be a favored dark horse Stanley Cup contender, most likely not.
The St. Louis Blues are the only team that finished ahead of the Wild in the Central last year that Minnesota could reasonably believe they have a shot at catching.
But it’s not just the teams who finished ahead of them who improved their chances this summer. For almost a decade, the Arizona Coyotes were a near lock on the calendar to secure at least one point, most likely two. However, with their move to Utah, new owner Ryan Smith has signaled those days are over. With the trade for top-pair defenseman Mikhail Sergachev and a slew of other notable free-agent signings, Utah seems poised to take a big step this season.
And while Chicago remains a bottom-five team going into the season, it’s difficult to see them repeating their 52-point campaign with their additions to surround phenom Connor Bedard with an NHL-caliber roster.
Hynes is publicly saying the right things. Just last week, during his appearance on KFAN radio station, Hynes pointed to the disappointing offensive seasons of a few veteran forwards as evidence that they can bounce back.
“We still believe in the guys," he said. "The guys that we have on the roster, they’ve got to be better. And I’m excited to have some conversations with guys now that our team is basically through free agency.”
Hynes highlighted Hartman’s past success with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello and his return to being a top-line center, giving them the potential to diversify their offensive options. However, Hartman hasn’t produced like a top-line center each of the past two years, even with ample opportunity to remain there. It's tough to say whether returning to playing alongside Kaprizov alone will revitalize his game.
Then there are the recurring injury concerns with the heavily relied-on veterans on the roster. Hynes can hope Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, and Foligno can put together a full season. However, the odds of all three doing so are extremely low.
Spurgeon missed 66 games last year due to injury, which was a trend more than a blip. The Wild captain has missed at least 17 games due to injury in four of the past five seasons. Foligno also missed at least 17 games in that same period. Jonas Brodin’s injury history is even more concerning, as the recently turned 31-year-old has missed at least 20 games in four of the last five seasons.
Relying on improved play from three players who have experienced short stints of success over the past decade is a tough sell. Add to that the avalanche of injuries their veteran roster is saddled with, and the task looks nearly impossible.
But even in a scenario where everything goes right for Hynes and the Wild this year, the Central division is only getting deeper and more difficult to compete in. It’s more likely the Wild will find themselves slipping further down the standings this year than climbing back into contention.
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