By Tom Schreier -
Remember where you were when the Minnesota Wild beat the Colorado Avalanche 3-2 in a shootout?
Many people felt catharsis. Colorado’s 48 points lead the NHL. They have a plus-49 and are 10-2-4 away from Denver. It had to be a pleasant surprise to see the Wild (37 points, plus-4, 8-3-4 in St. Paul) beat the Avs to cap off a 12-game winning streak.
Still, it felt like the team would inevitably regress because they can’t score.
And regress they did. Since beating Colorado, the Wild have:
- Lost to the Buffalo Sabres 3-2 in a shootout.
- Beat the Edmonton Oilers 1-0.
- Lost to the Calgary Flames 4-1.
- Lost to the Vancouver Canucks 4-1.
- Beat the Seattle Kraken 4-1.
For context, Buffalo’s 26 points are the lowest in the Eastern Conference. The Sabres haven’t made the playoffs since 2010-11 and haven’t won a playoff game since 2006-07. Edmonton’s goalies have a combined .877 save percentage, and the Wild only scored one goal against them. Calgary might be the league's most mismanaged team, and it has the third-worst record in the West; Vancouver’s record is even worse.
The Wild may have been the league’s hottest team in November, but they landed at .500 and have been losing since.
Minnesota started 3-6-3, similar to 2023, when they collapsed under Dean Evason. Their 12-game win streak elevated them to 14-7-4. The Wild are 16-9-5 after beating Seattle to close out their four-game road trip.
Looking at their season through the lens of wins and losses, they started 3-9, were 14-11 after the win streak, and 16-14 after losing to losing teams on the road.
That may feel unfair because losers get a standings point in the NHL. Still, think of how you would have felt if they had lost to Colorado in the shootout? Pretty different, right? Conversely, losing to the hapless Sabres probably didn’t leave anyone feeling like they had salvaged that game.
Minnesota also lost all but one of those games on the road in a different time zone. Still, the Wild are 8-3-4 at home and 8-6-1 on the road, or 8-7 regardless of whether they’re playing in St. Paul. They tend to pick up the loser’s point at the X, but does anyone leave that game feeling satisfied? Losing is losing.
Jesper Wallstedt and Filip Gustavsson are carrying the Wild. They are allowing only 2.67 goals per game, seventh-best in the NHL. They also lead the league with six shutouts. Meanwhile, Minnesota only scores 2.73 goals per game. That’s fewer than the New Jersey Devils, Philadelphia Flyers, and Vancouver, three teams that are out of the playoff picture.
A team that scores only 2.67 goals per game and allows 2.73 feels like a .500, or worse, hockey club because the team that scores more goals wins each contest.
Minnesota’s goaltenders are carrying it this year. They have two scoring forwards, Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy, who don’t have any other support. Marcus Johansson is their third-leading scorer; he’s 35 and scored his first goal in eight games against Seattle.
The Wild have scored four or more goals in five games:
- 5-0 win over the St. Louis Blues.
- 7-4 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets.
- 6-5 overtime loss to the San Jose Sharks.
- 5-0 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins
- 4-1 win over Seattle.
Minnesota is 3-1-1 in those games. They’re 5-1-1 if you include shootout wins over the Los Angeles Kings and Chicago Blackhawks. Meanwhile, the Wild are 11-8-4 in all other games, or 11-12. That feels fitting for a goaltending-driven team that has no depth scoring.
The Wild will continue to steal games from good teams and lose to lousy ones because of their roster construction. In Year 3 of Bill Guerin’s five-year plan, Minnesota is a .500 team that can’t score. There isn’t much reason to believe they’ll get significantly better, at least enough to contend, by the end of this season.
Perhaps more concerningly, the Wild are the same team they were before they hired Guerin. Good enough to make the playoffs, not good enough to win once they’re there. Always stuck in the mushy middle. If the team hasn’t changed much since Guerin took over in 2019, why should anyone be sold on them contending anytime soon?
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