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  • The Time Is Now To Lock Up Marco Rossi


    Image courtesy of Matt Marton-USA Today Sports
    Tony Abbott

    In the summer of 2021, all eyes were on Kirill Kaprizov's contract situation. The Calder Trophy winner just completed his first (and only) year of his entry-level contract, putting up 27 goals and 51 points in 55 games. His reward was unprecedented for a player with such little NHL experience, a five-year, $45 million deal that drew the ire of some of the league's biggest-diapered stars.

    Was it the best contract that the Minnesota Wild signed that offseason? Perhaps. Kaprizov just hit the 40-goal mark for the third time in that deal's first three seasons. But the pact Minnesota made with Joel Eriksson Ek (eight years, $42 million) might be even more bang for their buck. A No. 1 center in the Ryan O'Reilly mold for a lower cap hit than, say, Andrew Copp? That's working out well for the Wild.

    That lesson might be instructive as Minnesota embarks on this offseason with both of their Calder Trophy-caliber rookies, Brock Faber and Marco Rossi, entering the final seasons of their ELCs and thus being eligible for extensions.

    Faber is almost assuredly going to break the bank, even with his NHL experience unable to exceed 83 games before this summer. Still, Jake Sanderson signed an eight-year extension worth $64.4 million in September, and Owen Power followed that up a month later with a seven-year, $58.45 million deal of his own. The two top young defensemen had 77 and 87 games under their belts at the time of their signings, respectively.

    Meanwhile, Faber's rookie season not only exceeds Sanderson and Power in point totals, but his production isn't just good-for-a-rookie. It's simply good. Ryan Suter, Matt Dumba, and Brent Burns are the only Wild defensemen with more points than Faber's 43. That's right, his 43 points are currently tied with captain Jared Spurgeon's career-high. Faber's cap hit will start with an "8," and that might be a hometown discount. All eyes will be on that contract situation this summer.

    It'll be a great day in Minnesota once the Wild ink Faber to a long-term extension. But the value play for the Wild is to try and do another Eriksson Ek-type home run contract with Rossi.

    Think about it: When did Minnesota extend Eriksson Ek? Right when he began to deliver on his promise as a first-round pick in 2015. He broke out with 19 goals and 30 points in a COVID-shortened 56-game season. Crucially, Eriksson Ek wasn't negotiating his contract coming off the 26-goal, 49-point season he had the following year or his 23-goal, 61-point campaign of 2022-23.

    That's the sweet spot, and Rossi is in that same zone. A bout with myocarditis and a slow NHL start (one point in his first 21 NHL games) cast doubt on his ability to make it at this level. Instead, Rossi put those doubts to bed with a 21-goal, 38-point rookie season. 

    How much better can he get, seeing as he only turns 23 in September? He's already second on the team with 18 5-on-5 goals, one behind Kaprizov and one ahead of Matt Boldy. His 32 5-on-5 points are third among Wild players, behind Kaprizov and Boldy and one ahead of Eriksson Ek. If he has consistent linemates next season and a more prominent role, can he hit 30 goals next year? How many more assists can he add?

    More importantly, why wait to find out before paying him? Minnesota always has the option to kick the can down the road with a shorter-term "bridge deal." The idea with that kind of contract is to squeeze out some cheaper years from a player while dangling the carrot of a bigger payday.

    The Wild did that to great effect with Kevin Fiala in 2019, garnering lots of value with a two-year, $6 million deal. Any GM would take 43 goals and 94 points in 114 games for a $3 million cap hit. But when it came time to pay Fiala, they felt they couldn't afford him. Since they got Faber in return for the ensuing trade, it's hard to say it didn't work out. Still, Minnesota's secondary scoring hasn't been the same since.

    Maybe the Wild felt that carrot was necessary to motivate Fiala (though he does have two straight 70-point seasons in LA), but that isn't the case for Rossi. It's hard to question the commitment of a kid who'll miss his sister's wedding to do skating drills. Or the drive of a 22-year-old who parks his 5-foot-9 frame in front of the net on a nightly basis. Minnesota can count on Rossi to maximize his potential.

    Still, they don't have to pay for that maximized potential if they get ahead of this contract situation the way they did with Eriksson Ek. Rossi doesn't have the clean contract comparables that Faber has in Sanderson and Power, but we can gauge the market by taking a quick look at young centers who've signed long-term extensions with their teams since the summer of 2022.

    Josh Norris signed an eight-year, $63.6 million ($7.95M cap hit) extension in July 2022. Norris was 23, coming off a 35-goal, 55-point season. Tim Stützle, the third overall pick in Rossi's 2020 Draft, inked an eight-year, $66.8 million ($8.35M cap hit) deal in September 2022. Stützle was 20, coming off a 22-goal, 58-point sophomore season. Dylan Cozens cashed in during his age-21 season, signing a seven-year, $49.7 million ($7.1M cap hit) contract as he was heading to 31 goals and 68 points.

    Rossi doesn't quite have those bonafides, which probably pushes his long-term number somewhere in the $6 million range. Perhaps something in the ballpark of the eight-year, $50 million ($6.5M cap hit) pact two-way center Anthony Cirelli signed in July 2022, right around his 25th birthday.

    That might seem like a lot for a player with one full NHL season under his belt. In most cases, though, the sticker shock fades away as the cap rises and the players perform. Rossi is scratching the surface of his potential. If he continues to deliver, that cap hit becomes a bargain quickly.

    Even at a seemingly unreasonable $7 million, Rossi would create a cap advantage for Minnesota. With five years remaining on Eriksson Ek's contract, Minnesota would have two top-six centers locked up for a total of $12.25 million for the next five seasons. Anything lower would only add to the bang for the buck of that one-two punch and the money Minnesota could allocate toward the wings or defense.

    The starting point with Rossi this summer is with a center who is competing for a Calder Trophy in a year where star rookies like Bedard, Faber, Luke Hughes, Logan Cooley, Adam Fantilli, and Leo Carlsson are making their debuts. It doesn't get any cheaper from here on out. Why wait?

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    What is the contract status of Rossi and Faber, are they under contract next year? Does the Wild have cap space to sign either to a big extension now? Is the cap hell over after next year?

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    23 hours ago, MrCheatachu said:

    Buying out a player <26 is only a 1/3 cap hit compared to the 2/3 cap hit once they're 26. Buying-out a $7M contract is a bargain of $2.3M/year (assuming you dont front load it).

    But that's the gamble if you bridge him, if he gets better he's going to be unaffordable long term if he gets better.  If he poops the bed, you look better but will have to answer why you didnt trade him when his value was the highest and he had 'potential'

    I had not considered this angle. I'd still want another year of experience, but this changes my thought a bit.

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    20 hours ago, NC Beach Bum said:

    What is the contract status of Rossi and Faber, are they under contract next year? Does the Wild have cap space to sign either to a big extension now? Is the cap hell over after next year?

    According to Capfriendly, Rossi and Faber are signed next season (which means that this is the 1 year of Rossi experience I talked about above). Would it be better to wait and sign the 2 after next season? Could someone swoop in and offersheet them?

    The heavy lifting portion of the buyouts is over next season, but we'll still be on the hook for many years at $1.67m. So, to answer the above question, if someone swoops in to offersheet them, they will be paying highly in draft picks if they win.

    So, yes, the Wild could afford long term extensions for both players, but, that would eat up the buyout savings pretty much. And, you've got a Kaprizov resigning looming in '25-26 (he's under contract that year but can be resigned that year also). 

    Resignings of Rossi and Faber do not kick out next year's salaries. I would be pretty comfortable resigning Faber right away. I think I'd wait until at least mid year on Rossi.

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    On 4/10/2024 at 10:59 AM, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    I don't think this is going to happen, but say a team like Columbus says to themselves that they don't think they are going to win in the near future, perhaps they want to get younger and trade Boone Jenner with a 2nd round pick for Rossi?

    For the "win now" crowd, this might be a decent deal. But, you'd want to be able to resign Jenner at the end of the deal. And, I agree with you that Jenner is a little older than I'd like. 

    Bottom line, I think I'd keep Rossi on this deal. 

    But, what if we were talking Rossi + Wild 1st = Jenner + Columbus 1 and 2? This, of course would happen after the ping pong balls are bounced.

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    On 4/9/2024 at 12:52 PM, Pewterschmidt said:

    Great point.  He's spent much of his season with 3rd liners and nojo/fred.  And he's still producing offense.  This is a positive take on Rossi.  He should only get more valuable with productive linemates.

    I've said a couple times that we truly won't see what Rossi will be until Yurov comes over.  That's assuming Yurov is good enough to play top-6 and he comes over either this off-season or next (fingers crossed anyway).

    Even if Rossi doesn't play with him directly, there would finally be enough skill and talent on the top two lines for both lines to benefit.  Rossi has often had two linemates who think pass first and play the perimeter so he ends up being the guy getting ragdolled in slot.

    I'm looking forward to two lines of Boldy, Kaprizov, Ek, Rossi, Zuccarello, and Yurov.  I wouldn't put Boldy or Kap on the same line and I wouldn't put Ek and Rossi on the same line, but I'd try every other combination and see what clicked best.

    And then hopefully by the time Zuccarello is off the books, that one of the prospects are ready to step up.

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    2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    But, what if we were talking Rossi + Wild 1st = Jenner + Columbus 1 and 2? This, of course would happen after the ping pong balls are bounced.

    I did factor into it that Columbus would have a high 2nd round pick, so it would be a top 40 pick and a player that is likely better right now, though not necessarily 3 years down the road.

    Until the draft lottery happens, we cannot be certain that Columbus is picking ahead of the Wild this year, but I understand you thinking the specific deal I outlined might be light. I didn't do a lot of searching for the perfect player/deal, just found one close enough to what I was suggesting.

    I do think Guerin would really like the type of player Jenner is. With a nickname of Bam Bam...who wouldn't like that guy?

    200w.gif?cid=6c09b9523d5a7bmsqes77sydlhc

    Could fit in really well with Dino!

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    57 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    I did factor into it that Columbus would have a high 2nd round pick, so it would be a top 40 pick and a player that is likely better right now, though not necessarily 3 years down the road.

    I just didn't think it was enough. I made the assumption that Columbus called us. I'm also assuming that flipping picks has them picking 4 or 5. 

    My main criteria was age, having Rossi for 8 years in his 20s could be huge. 

    But, if I go along with my main thought on building a contender, I've got to keep Rossi. To review, I believe the main driver on a contender is finding 3-4 hits on 2/3 drafts (though I did not research the trade of prospects affect). If I include that, 2020 could be Rossi, Dino, Hunt, Faber. In the subsequent drafts, we've got The Wall and Lambos as 1sts, and Ohgren and Yurov as 1sts. Assuming all hit, and 3/4 would be the average, we'd only need 1 more from those draft classes to hit to get my main driver.

    If you build the team around those players, and have some good outliers, like the 2015 class (Ek, Kaprizov) Boldy, you've got something.

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    8 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    According to Capfriendly, Rossi and Faber are signed next season (which means that this is the 1 year of Rossi experience I talked about above). Would it be better to wait and sign the 2 after next season? Could someone swoop in and offersheet them?

    The heavy lifting portion of the buyouts is over next season, but we'll still be on the hook for many years at $1.67m. So, to answer the above question, if someone swoops in to offersheet them, they will be paying highly in draft picks if they win.

    So, yes, the Wild could afford long term extensions for both players, but, that would eat up the buyout savings pretty much. And, you've got a Kaprizov resigning looming in '25-26 (he's under contract that year but can be resigned that year also). 

    Resignings of Rossi and Faber do not kick out next year's salaries. I would be pretty comfortable resigning Faber right away. I think I'd wait until at least mid year on Rossi.

    side question, I looked at one of the Cap sites and it sez Vegas is 17 mill over the cap, how does that work?

     

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    15 hours ago, NC Beach Bum said:

    side question, I looked at one of the Cap sites and it sez Vegas is 17 mill over the cap, how does that work?

    They've got some big stars on LTIR. With the rules (Mr. Cheatatu is better at this than me), you can replace a player up to the LTIR figure. Stone is a mainstay on LTIR, but miraculously heals up for the playoffs. Lehner's double hip surgery has him on there and I doubt he'll be ready.

    Then, you add in that they bought 3 stars at the TDL on pro rated contracts and they're just plain stacked. Last year, I think they miscalculated a little and had to play short 1 or 2 games. 

    They've got deep pockets and have found TBL's loophole and done it even better. They can afford to pay the salaries of the players on LTIR, and they do it willingly knowing that their playoff roster will be stacked. 

    They don't care about making the playoffs and just being happy to be there. They count on making the playoffs and then boosting their roster with plenty of extra ammunition. 

    Is it cheating? That's debatable. I think it goes against the spirit of the rules, but is perfectly fine under the letter of the rules. Circumventing the cap has been a toy of many franchises that have deep pockets. The game is figuring out how. Once the Wild get involved, suddenly those toys become illegal retroactively and we get penalized for it. 

    Vegas will be a beast to oust come playoff time, no matter where they are seeded. If they are 8th, that's a terrible draw for a Dallas team that looks to be conference champs. You'd almost rather finish 2nd in the division. You know who wins? TV. They will have the best 1st round matchup and all the games will likely be nationally televised. 

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    2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Is it cheating? That's debatable. I think it goes against the spirit of the rules, but is perfectly fine under the letter of the rules. Circumventing the cap has been a toy of many franchises that have deep pockets. The game is figuring out how. Once the Wild get involved, suddenly those toys become illegal retroactively and we get penalized for it.

    It's dishonorable at the least and cheating at the most.  To deliberately take advantage of a loophole to your own advantage is basically the definition of being a slime ball.  

    I absolutely despise the Blues, but I am cheering for them to beat out Vegas.

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    4 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

    It's dishonorable at the least and cheating at the most.  To deliberately take advantage of a loophole to your own advantage is basically the definition of being a slime ball.  

    What would you expect from the city organized crime built?

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