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  • The Quinn Hughes Trade Finally Gives the Minnesota Wild "Christmas Morning"


    Image courtesy of Bob Frid - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    Credit to Minnesota Wild general manager Bill Guerin: He did it.

    When the Wild were finally on the cusp of losing the titanic twin dead cap hits from the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts, an overjoyed Craig Leipold told the media, "Next July 1 is going to be like Christmas." 

    That was in October 2024, and when July 1 (and then July 31, and the 2025-26 season home opener, etc.) came around, it was looking as if Christmas wasn't coming. 31 Grinchy General Managers denied the Wilds down in Wildville an impact player, and with the trade market ground to a halt since the summer, it was looking like that'd remain the status quo.

    But here's the thing: No one can know when a superstar is going to become available. All Guerin could do was keep his powder dry, which he did. He didn't tie up cap room with an expensive, but underwhelming UFA signing. He didn't cash in his chips for a good-but-not-difference-making player like Jordan Kyrou. He waited for an opportunity and shot his shot when the time was right.

    Trading a player like Quinn Hughes doesn't happen, and a big part of that is that there's not many players like him to begin with. It's not sufficient to call him a "No. 1 Defenseman," a "star," or even a "superstar." Hughes is a franchise-changing presence. He's one of 12 defensemen ever -- EVER!!! -- to score 90 points in a season. Better yet, he's in his age-26 season, his absolute prime. 

    The rare players who are like him -- Cale Makar and Erik Karlsson being the only ones from this century that feel like Hughes' true peers -- elevated their teams in ways almost no defenseman can. Makar has a Stanley Cup and two Norris Trophies under his belt at age-27, while prime Karlsson (who won the Norris three times) dragged an uninspiring Ottawa Senators team to within one game of the Stanley Cup Final in 2017.

    The price going the Vancouver Canucks' way -- Zeev Buium, Marco Rossi, Liam Öhgren, and a 2026 first-round pick -- might make some squeamish. This is a topic to be discussed another day in full, but it must be stressed that Hughes is a caliber of player worth the cost for two crucial reasons.

    One, Hughes fills the Wild's biggest need: A game-changing defenseman. Not merely a very good defenseman, as Minnesota has employed plenty of those, from Jared Spurgeon to Jonas Brodin to Ryan Suter to Matt Dumba and more. Maybe Buium could have been Hughes in time; we'll find out how well he fills those skates in Vancouver. But make no mistake: Hughes is the 99th percentile outcome for Buium. Buium could become extremely good, a legitimate No. 1 defenseman, and still not be close to Hughes' level. 

    The gulf between Hughes and any defenseman not named "Makar" is enormous. Hughes has 267 points since the start of the 2022-23 season, more than anyone but Makar (285), and crucially, 34 more than third-place Josh Morrissey. In terms of Hughes' impact on his team, Evolving-Hockey measures his impact during that time as being worth 20.7 Standings Points Above Replacement, tops among all defensemen. Second place is Adam Fox (18.0), and Makar is in third (17.5). Put another way: For every 82 games, Hughes' play is worth a point in the standings more than the next-best defenseman.

    That's a massive need for Minnesota, but it wasn't the team's biggest need. No, that was one that felt almost silly to mention, as it felt unrealistic as recently as Friday morning. The Wild needed another top-10 player to pair with Kirill Kaprizov, and they got one.

    Not only that, it's a legitimate debate as to whether Kaprizov is the best player on the Wild. In fact, the temperature of the NHL before the season was that Hughes was slightly above Kaprizov. In The Athletic's Player Tiers, which was built with input from sources from around the NHL, both were MVP-caliber players, with Hughes landing in Tier 1B (eighth overall) and Kaprizov in Tier 1C (tenth). 

    The Wild are now one of three teams with two MVP-caliber players in their lineup, with the Colorado Avalanche (Makar, Nathan MacKinnon) and Edmonton Oilers (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl) being the other two. Those teams made up three of the last four Western Conference Finals winners. And now, the Wild get to be in their league, at least at the very top of their lineup.

    What happens next will be fascinating. How much can Hughes push the pace for the Wild, both at 5-on-5 and on the power play? How insane will a top pairing of Hughes and Brock Faber be, perhaps? Does Danila Yurov have what it takes to backfill the loss of Rossi? Or heck, with Kaprizov and Hughes together, does the center position even matter all that much?

    We'll start finding out those questions as soon as Saturday, but in the meantime, enjoy the moment, Wild fans. It's Christmas morning, and now the Wild have a Quinn Hughes. Ho ho ho.

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    2 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    you win with him - he stays. and you do this trade knowing that you have a chance to win. he can bond with his brothers in the off season. this is our time

    It definitely put us in win now mode...   with an big.."OR ELSE"   at the end.

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    3 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    there is only potential with Zeev. With Hughes it's a reality

    I disagree.   Zeev has already proven he can play in this league and has shown some serious skill.   Not at Hughes level..  but Zeev is barely 20...  

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    2 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    I disagree.   Zeev has already proven he can play in this league and has shown some serious skill.   Not at Hughes level..  but Zeev is barely 20...  

    yes and he needs time. Parlaying him into an established stud D is a no brainer move. We now align on a timeline fitting our superstars and focus on winning now. Our D was not producing offensively and that changes immediately- guessing our PP will also improve. Additionally our great defensive core of Brodin and Spurgy are aging and this move allows us to still tap into their value. 
     

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    1 minute ago, OldDutchChip said:

    yes and he needs time. Parlaying him into an established stud D is a no brainer move. We now align on a timeline fitting our superstars and focus on winning now. Our D was not producing offensively and that changes immediately- guessing our PP will also improve. Additionally our great defensive core of Brodin and Spurgy are aging and this move allows us to still tap into their value

    For a year and a half...  that's it... short window and a big gamble that he signs an extension. 

    BG gets the extension...I will feel a lot better....

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    Ok, now that the shock has worn off a little and I have time to process this, I am going to try and take a positive view of this trade.  I get the worry that many have that Hughes will not resign, but I am not going to think about that until we hear that he will not.  Many felt that Kap would not resign and he did, so I am not going to waste my time thinking about that.

    I also understand that it was a lot to give up, especially youth with upside.  Rossi and Zeev were two of my favorite young players.  But this is how I am looking at it.  Since Rossi last played, we are 10-2-1.  Ohgren has shown improvement, but it isn't like he cannot be replaced this year by someone.  Zeev has lots of potential, but Hughes is by far the better player right now.  So, are we a better or worse team today than the team that has gone 10-2-1 in their last 13 games?  I would say we are.

    I am also looking at the financial side of this for the future.  Say we are able to resign Hughes.  Right now, the highest paid defenseman is Erik Karlsson at $11.5M.  Hughes salary will obviously depend on what Makar gets but let's just say $14M.  Zeev was going to be up for a contract the same year and might have gotten $8M or more, and Rossi was already making $5M and would have needed a raise the next year.  Almost a wash or maybe even less than those two.

    I also get that Zeev might become what Hughes is now in a couple of years.  True, but Hughes is that now.  Maybe Zeev becomes as good, but maybe not too. To me, this shows that Billy believes that we can win the Cup this year.  Time will tell if it pays off, but hey, let's enjoy that ride.  

    P.S.  Good luck to Rossi, Ohgren and Zeev, just not the few times a year you play us.

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    8 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

    Right now, the highest paid defenseman is Erik Karlsson at $11.5M.  Hughes salary will obviously depend on what Makar gets but let's just say $14M

    Makar is expected to sign a deal north of $16M.  Zeev is a RFA

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    36 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    you win with him - he stays. and you do this trade knowing that you have a chance to win. he can bond with his brothers in the off season. this is our time. 

    Shit, he can bring them to St. Paul if he really misses them. 

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    37 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    there is only potential with Zeev. With Hughes it's a reality. 

    It isn't only potential though. Buium is tied for 2nd in rookie defenseman scoring and has more goals scored this season than Quinn Hughes. Buium also scored more in college. There is no doubt that Hughes is better today, in the prime of his career, but it wouldn't be shocking for Buium to surpass him at some point in the next handful of seasons. Hughes will start declining soon and Buium is likely to have a substantial increase in production.

    Hughes is playing 17.5% of his minutes on the power play, and 27.5 minutes per night, so he gets a lot of points, but he doesn't kill penalties. Buium is playing roughly 18.5 minutes per night, so could be at 20+ points on the season if he was given the type of minutes allotted to Quinn Hughes.

    Is Quinn Hughes good in the defense zone?

    Edited by Imyourhuckleberry
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    9 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    Makar is expected to sign a deal north of $16M.  Zeev is a RFA

    And?  Hughes will not, or should not get as much as Makar, and just because Zeev is an RFA, does not mean he won't get at least $8M.  Faber was an RFA and got $8.5M after one year

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    5 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    It isn't only potential though. Buium is tied for 2nd in rookie defenseman scoring and has more goals scored this season than Quinn Hughes. Buium also scored more in college. There is no doubt that Hughes is better today, in the prime of his career, but it wouldn't be shocking for Buium to surpass him at some point in the next handful of seasons. Hughes will start declining soon and Buium is likely to have a substantial increase in production.

    Hughes is playing 17.5% of his minutes on the power play, and 27.5 minutes per night, so he gets a lot of points, but he doesn't kill penalties. Buium is playing roughly 18.5 minutes per night, so could be at 20+ points on the season if he was given the type of minutes allotted to Quinn Hughes.

    Is Quinn Hughes good in the defense zone?

    Hughes is the best puck mover in the league, elite power play guy, has better zone entries than MJ or any other player in the league and is a norris winner. He is a top 10 player in the league (Tier 1 player, like Kap) and we now have as many top tier players as any other team (with likely Boldy joining by seasons end). We can match up against anyone. Is he good in Defensive Zone? Is Makar? With Hughes on the ice - we are not likely to worry about Defensive Zone!

     

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    Just now, SkolWild73 said:

    Hughes will not, or should not get as much as Makar, and just because Zeev is an RFA, does not mean he won't get at least $8M.  Faber was an RFA and got $8.5M after one year

    Hughes will sign a bigger contract then Zeev.   I think that is obvious.   Zeev was guaranteed to sign with the Wild...  Hughes is not.   That is a pretty big "And"

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    21 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

    So, are we a better or worse team today than the team that has gone 10-2-1 in their last 13 games?  I would say we are.

    Which is it?

    While I agree that this might make the Wild better short term, that's not even a guarantee because Quinn Hughes hasn't been acclimated to the Wild system or the locker room. My main concern is beyond this season because the Wild gave up a lot more than Buium and it was simply too much in my mind.

    There's no guarantee that Quinn Hughes will be better in the 27-28 season(playing on his next contract) than Buium, so if the Wild don't win the cup this season or the next, it will almost be a certainty that this was a bad deal.

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    I'm 1000% with Chip here. Buium could be Hughes? Maybe! But that's a best-case scenario. Hughes' production is historic, basically, alongside Makar. 

    I was against trading a Buium+Rossi package for someone like Tage Thompson or Brady Tkachuk because I didn't think either of those guys were a legit MVP, difference-making type of player. It's indisputable that Hughes is in that tier.

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    I'm excited by this trade and am surprised how lukewarm is its reception here. Hughes is a generational talent. Adding him to the roster can't guarantee a Cup, obviously, but I think it improves the team's chances, even if only for two seasons. Raises the thrill factor at the very least. Wild sure will have some tiny defensemen though.

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    He’s a top 5-10 overall player in the league on the front end of his prime.  Incredible in breakouts and transitions.  Will make the first power play unit lethal.  Instant offense.

    Im not sure if people a lot just hear “defenseman” and don’t understand Hughes game, but this is the best player they possibly could’ve acquired in terms of putting more goals in the net.

    It does worry somewhat that we gave up Buium.  He could be a Hughes-lite someday.  But I don’t think he’ll ever be as good as Hughes.

    We were trying to give away Rossi, anyway, Ohgren is a JAG, and a first rounder in the 20s isn’t the end of the world.

    I think this signals some confidence in Yurov, and they can still go get some 3rd line forward depth.

    If you have the opportunity to get a player like Hughes, you do it.  He’s instantly the best player on the Wild’s roster (may be controversial, but yes he’s better than Kaprizov).

    If they can find a way to local him up long-term, which I have doubts, there’s a Cup winning core there.  Two elite level point scoring forwards, a Selke level center, the best d pair in the NHL, and two high end goalies.

    The high end #1 center isn’t coming, guys.  This is the next best thing.  I like the risk.  It’ll certainly make this team a heck of a lot more fun to watch this year, even if he’s not here long-term.  If he doesn’t sign here, they’ll get good value in a trade (perhaps a center).

     

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    17 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

    I'm 1000% with Chip here. Buium could be Hughes? Maybe! But that's a best-case scenario. Hughes' production is historic, basically, alongside Makar. 

    I was against trading a Buium+Rossi package for someone like Tage Thompson or Brady Tkachuk because I didn't think either of those guys were a legit MVP, difference-making type of player. It's indisputable that Hughes is in that tier.

    image.gif.34e0f60f9a11831d50f56841698bd67e.gif

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    14 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

    1000% with Chip here. Buium could be Hughes? Maybe! But that's a best-case scenario. Hughes' production is historic, basically, alongside Makar. 

    I was against trading a Buium+Rossi package for someone like Tage Thompson or Brady Tkachuk because I didn't think either of those guys were a legit MVP, difference-making type of player. It's indisputable that Hughes is in that tier

    I really do hope you are correct.   I have been on the fence with BG as our GM.   This is a bold move.   Tomorrow will be a very interesting game.  It's good to see some people agreeing with the trade.    I am just not there yet. 

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    59 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    It isn't only potential though. Buium is tied for 2nd in rookie defenseman scoring and has more goals scored this season than Quinn Hughes. Buium also scored more in college. There is no doubt that Hughes is better today, in the prime of his career, but it wouldn't be shocking for Buium to surpass him at some point in the next handful of seasons. Hughes will start declining soon and Buium is likely to have a substantial increase in production.

    Hughes is playing 17.5% of his minutes on the power play, and 27.5 minutes per night, so he gets a lot of points, but he doesn't kill penalties. Buium is playing roughly 18.5 minutes per night, so could be at 20+ points on the season if he was given the type of minutes allotted to Quinn Hughes.

    Is Quinn Hughes good in the defense zone?

    Hughes is arguably the best d man in the NHL. If he re signs in MN there is no doubt we won the trade

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    1 hour ago, MNCountryLife said:

    I am okay with Ohgren,  a first and even Rossi... but not Buium.

    But in the end it is a amazing trade also for Rossi 

    During summer when nobody did an offershets he was flagged as " with no trade value "  and now Quinn Hughes stands on the other side of the ledger . Yes I do know that 3 other players are involved but Ohgren stands with zero points right now .The first rounder was already involved during summer ( pick 15 ) and Canucks might not even keep Buium and hand it over to Red Wings as  his brother does play for Grand Rapids 

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