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  • The Price For Kirill Kaprizov Doesn't Matter


    Image courtesy of Matt Blewett - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    If you've ever exclaimed, "Pay that man his money!" after watching Kirill Kaprizov score a brilliant goal, then good news: You got your wish.

    After turning down a would-be record-breaking contract of eight years and $128 million earlier this month, Kaprizov finally signed his extension with the Minnesota Wild. His deal goes from record-breaking to record-shattering, an eight-year, $136 million pact that will carry a $17 million AAV.

    No one can blame you for calling that insane. The Wild are paying him $3 million more than Leon Draisaitl, the current highest-paid player in the NHL, is making. It will probably be even more than Connor McDavid will make whenever he signs his next deal.

    There are several compelling reasons why Minnesota shouldn't have offered that contract to Kaprizov. $17 million is a ton of money, and it's going to be a lot even as the salary cap continues to rise. Kaprizov's extension kicks in at age 29, which means that it will take him through his age-36 season. There's also the fact that Kaprizov has missed 63 games in the last three years, including 41 last season. It's a significant risk.

    However, none of those reasons stack up compared to the best reason to keep him:

    The Wild aren't anything without Kaprizov.

    It's not to say that the Wild don't have good, compelling players: Matt Boldy, Brock Faber, Marco Rossi, and Joel Eriksson Ek are a few. But Kaprizov affects the fortunes of a franchise in ways that very good, and even great players can't.

    We saw it when he arrived. The Wild made the playoffs in four of five seasons with Kaprizov in the fold, and that's a big deal. But overnight, Minnesota went from an also-ran team to one that demands attention. Hockey fans who would never give the Wild a second glance otherwise tune in to watch Kaprizov play. Locally, Kaprizov gives the Wild star power to compete with the Vikings and Justin Jefferson, as well as the Timberwolves and Anthony Edwards.

    That might not be on-the-ice value, but it matters. Where is fan morale at if Kaprizov spends the season as a Lame Duck Superstar, with one foot out the door? Even if Minnesota made the playoffs afterward, how could fans buy into a product that couldn't hold onto their franchise player?

    But then, of course, there's the on-ice value, and that is also astronomical. 

    Is Kaprizov the best player in the NHL? No. He might not even be Top-5. But he's damn close. Since entering the league, Kaprizov ranks 13th among skaters with 25.9 Standings Points Above Replacement, per Evolving-Hockey. That puts him in a tier with the likes of Matthew Tkachuk (28.1), Elias Pettersson (27.4), and Aleksander Barkov (27.0) in terms of impact. His reputation is even better than that. The Athletic's Player Tiers ranked Kaprizov as the 10th-best player in the NHL, one of 11 dubbed MVP-level.

    And in terms of Wild history? Forget it. Five years of Kaprizov is almost lapping the field with everyone else. For context, here are the Wild's top-10 in SPAR. (NOTE: This data only dates back to the 2007-08 season.)

    Minnesota Wild Franchise Leaders, SPAR, since 2007-08:

    1. Jared Spurgeon, 53.9
    2. Mikko Koivu, 35.4
    3. Jonas Brodin, 32.9
    4. Ryan Suter, 30.3
    5. Joel Eriksson Ek, 26.4
    6. KIRILL KAPRIZOV, 25.9
    7. Jason Zucker, 25.8
    8. Nino Niederreiter, 25.6
    9. Zach Parise, 22.7
    10. Mikael Granlund, 22.0

    That's just nutty. At that pace, even a 60-game season from Kaprizov should move him up to fourth place on the list. Over nine years of Ryan Suter!!!

    And if goals rule everything -- as they should, they're the NHL's most valuable currency -- then Kaprizov is deserving of one of the top contracts in the league. Since his debut, Kaprizov is tied with Sam Reinhart for eighth in goals, behind only Auston Matthews, Draisaitl, David Pastrnak, McDavid, Mikko Rantanen, Alex Ovechkin, and Brayden Point

    The next-best Wild player on that list? It's Eriksson Ek, at 112. If you want to expand it to anyone who wore a Minnesota sweater during that time, it's Kevin Fiala (140), and Kaprizov still has him beat by 45. 

    Wild owner Craig Leipold understood the assignment: You keep that player, no matter what it takes. Is it a lot of money? Absolutely. Is it a lot of years? Sure is. Can you replace a player like Kaprizov for that money? No way. Not in Minnesota. 

    That last part bears emphasizing: Minnesota has spent a quarter of a decade being decidedly not a destination for players. There's no doubt that some of those $136 million functions as a tax for Kaprizov to stay in St. Paul rather than bolt to a more traditionally attractive market like New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, and others.

    The hope isn't just that Kaprizov continues to play like an MVP for the foreseeable future -- though that is a big part of it. It's that Kaprizov's presence keeps changing the Wild's fortunes, turning a place that was formerly a no-go zone for the NHL's elite into an attractive destination.

    We'll see what happens from here. But don't kid yourself, whether you're reading this immediately after the fact, or in 2034: The Wild had no choice but to do exactly the thing they did on September 30, 2025. Minnesota may move forward or backward from here, but without Kaprizov, there was just one direction to go: Back to square one to repeat their quarter-decade of irrelevance.

    Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.

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    1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    You just aren't being realistic. Kaprizov's agent had a ton of leverage because if the deal didn't get done this year, he could sign anywhere else next offseason for $15M+, assuming he doesn't get injured. That will be the new reality of salary cap increases. Kaprizov is viewed as a top 10 player, and borderline top 5.

    So, the Wild could have played hardball and ended up in the position they were in after Gaborik left for nothing--that eventually led to them overpaying for Parise and Suter. They went into this offseason with lots of cap space, but most of the teams are going to have cap space as the salary cap escalates and they weren't able to win any free agent sweepstakes.  Keeping Kaprizov was their best chance at being a viable contender and filling the stadium every night.

    I'm not suggesting the Wild had no chance to sign Kaprizov at a lower number, but they weren't going to finish negotiations below $15M. The agent knew the Wild didn't want to lose Kaprizov given how vital he is to their plans for contention, so he squeezed them because he did have leverage.

    The Wild didn't do a great job at negotiating to the lowest cap number, that we can agree on, but they just were never going to sign an 8 year deal below $14M. The extra money that Kaprizov's agent got from them is roughly equal to the dead cap hits that will finally go away a few years into his deal--from Parise and Suter.

    In the end all of this could be true.  Unfortunately we will me know because the Wild didn't let the process play out.  

    Right now there is no leverage. He isn't a free agent and can't talk to other teams.

    What happens if...

    1) KK has a sub par season and finishes with 88 points? His value goes down.

    2) KK gets injured (please no!) and misses 30 games? His value goes down.

    3) McDavid and Eichel each sign for 14,15 ish?  His value goes down.

    It's an alternate universe question at this point so we will never know but I can't see why they wouldn't have waited until May or June to offer him this much.  And KK isn't top 5. He isn't top 10 in any rankings I've seen. 

    It's crazy. Excluding his rookie year he has averaged 82 points a year and has never gotten out of the first round....

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    2 hours ago, Burnt Toast said:

    Lock up Gus asap and ride the wave.

    Gus has been great.  I am hoping that Wallstedt is better.  I would delay this signing for as long as possible.  If Wallstedt plays well the Wild could sign Gus for a lot less or even be willing to let Gus go and let Wallstedt be our #1.  If Wallstedt has a rough go of it then do as you mentioned at try to lock in Gus...and probably have to pay close to $8.

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    1 hour ago, Scalptrash said:

    Then there is the current state of the Iowa Wild, a neglected wasteland. That needs to be a first class organization if they ever hope to develop players from within. If ownership was serious, Iowa would have the best facilities and coaching in the AHL.

    YES!!!  This comment here.  IA Wild needs the best facility, the best coaches, the best trainers, the best everything.  The better they are at their job the better the MN Wild will be.  

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    2 hours ago, M_Nels said:

    Iowa does have nice facilities, not like they're playing in the old Buccaneers arena or anything.

    They used to be somewhat respectable when Army was coaching. Hopefully Cronin can get the ship steered right.

    Went to a couple playoff games in 2018-2019 that they made it to the 2nd round. In 2019-2020 they had a great start and then we all know what happened there..2022-2023 they made the qualifying round but lost.

    They do need to do a better job of development sure but McLean obviously wasn't doing a good job of that. 

    Billy and Judd have done a pretty decent job through the draft with where they draft IMO. Please don't let this derail into a tank thread. Stramel is a huge "we'll see" but you have Buium, Yurov, Haight, Ohgren, Lambos (kinda) vying for opening night roster and Wally cemented as no2 you're doing ok.

    Biggest draft pick "peddles" were for Jiricek and he's on the rise.

     

    Garbage In Garbage Out

    It's not the weight room or dining facilities in Iowa.  It's the product that's being sent there to be developed.  Although I think by now it's consensus opinion that Brett McLean was grossly negligent in every role he held within the Wild Org., so addition by subtraction, I guess.  Rossi #9, Buium #13 and Jiri #6 so can't give to much credit for these players showing promise at young ages.  At least Judd didn't Benoit Poulliot those picks, as far as we know right now.

    Yurov, Ogz, Khuz, and Haight are all unproven and at 21 yo, not sure they belong on the big club (not to mention the other 20-25 picks that'll never see the ice in St Paul) so I'm not clear as to why bill and judd deserve any praise.

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    43 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    Gus has been great.  I am hoping that Wallstedt is better.  I would delay this signing for as long as possible.  If Wallstedt plays well the Wild could sign Gus for a lot less or even be willing to let Gus go and let Wallstedt be our #1.  If Wallstedt has a rough go of it then do as you mentioned at try to lock in Gus...and probably have to pay close to $8.

    Agree 100%.  If we've learned anything about goalies it's that they're mercurial and streaky.  Please do not overpay for GUS now.  Hope Wall-e is competent and then deal GUS for a top 6 forward.  

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    41 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    YES!!!  This comment here.  IA Wild needs the best facility, the best coaches, the best trainers, the best everything.  The better they are at their job the better the MN Wild will be.  

    This is the same logic an NFL team owner uses when they say "hey taxpayers, gift me a new $1B stadium and then the on-the-field product won't suck so much".  I understand why the owner asks for it.  I don't understand why taxpayers are so damned gullible. 

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    45 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    If Wallstedt plays well the Wild could sign Gus for a lot less or even be willing to let Gus go and let Wallstedt be our #1.  If Wallstedt has a rough go of it then do as you mentioned at try to lock in Gus...and probably have to pay close to $8.

    How Gus performs this year will determine his contract value in the future with or without the Wild, regardless of how Wally performs this year.

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    5 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    It's not the weight room or dining facilities in Iowa.

    How often do we see a 3rd round or later make it?  That is where the IA Wild should be judged.  Are we turning more of those types of players into NHLers than other teams?

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    2 minutes ago, 0 Stanley Cups said:

    How Gus performs this year will determine his contract value in the future with or without the Wild, regardless of how Wally performs this year.

    I can't disagree... It certainly could.  Especially if Gus is okay with moving to another team.  MN has been a goalie friendly team and Gus has seen what happens to goalies that leave as well as been one of those goalies on other teams...  smells pretty nice in MN for goalies.   If Wally plays well and Gus wants to stay it may take some team friendly pay to make it happen....

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    2 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    I can't disagree... It certainly could.  Especially if Gus is okay with moving to another team.  MN has been a goalie friendly team and Gus has seen what happens to goalies that leave as well as been one of those goalies on other teams...  smells pretty nice in MN for goalies.   If Wally plays well and Gus wants to stay it may take some team friendly pay to make it happen....

    I'd prefer to spend money wisely having a solid D core than the highest paid goalie in the league, but goalie is a fickle position.  Look at what happened in Pittsburgh after Fleury, Matt Murray took over, then Tristan Jarry both of which looked terrific at first, only to implode later.  I agree we can't lock up too much money in two goalies, but a solid tandem is still necessary.  The fact that Gus worked out for the Wild was the biggest stroke of luck for BG after he canned Talbot.  Gus will be UFA after this season, and Wally RFA in two, so we shouldn't need to pay Wally $8M in two years, he could probably be bridged and eventually trade one in four or five years from now.

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    9 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    This is the same logic an NFL team owner uses when they say "hey taxpayers, gift me a new $1B stadium and then the on-the-field product won't suck so much".  I understand why the owner asks for it.  I don't understand why taxpayers are so damned gullible. 

    I have to disagree with this take.  If I'm an owner, I want my players healthy.  If a player tweaks his hamstring and I can get an MRI in 30 minutes and know that he will have permenant damage if he keeps playing... that is huge.  Facilities matter.  Having new weight equipment that protects players matters.  Have you seen the new state of the art monitoring equipment and software that actually tracks fatigue and injury and can push a player up to but not over the limit of what the body can handle..  That stuff is amazing.  You should check out Marquette University's HPAC program.  (Human Performance Assessment Core)  Amazing stuff they are doing.  I spent an afternoon talking with the department there and pro teams willing to spend the time and money are seeing huge performance rewards.

    Doing it the right way with the latest technology and equipment definitely makes a difference.  

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    4 minutes ago, 0 Stanley Cups said:

    I'd prefer to spend money wisely having a solid D core than the highest paid goalie in the league, but goalie is a fickle position.  Look at what happened in Pittsburgh after Fleury, Matt Murray took over, then Tristan Jarry both of which looked terrific at first, only to implode later.  I agree we can't lock up too much money in two goalies, but a solid tandem is still necessary.  The fact that Gus worked out for the Wild was the biggest stroke of luck for BG after he canned Talbot.  Gus will be UFA after this season, and Wally RFA in two, so we shouldn't need to pay Wally $8M in two years, he could probably be bridged and eventually trade one in four or five years from now.

    I agree with everything you just said.  Add in I thought Cal Peterson (30yo) played pretty well this preseason he could make for some interesting choices if BG wants to get creative.

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    1 hour ago, Patrick said:

    It's an alternate universe question at this point so we will never know but I can't see why they wouldn't have waited until May or June to offer him this much.  And KK isn't top 5. He isn't top 10 in any rankings I've seen. 

    For players with 10+ games played last year, here are the top 10 in points per game:

    1. Kucherov (1.55)

    2. Draisaitl (1.49)

    3. McDavid (1.49)

    4. MacKinnon (1.47)

    5. Kaprizov (1.37)

    6. Pastrnak (1.29)

    7. Marner (1.26)

    8. Eichel (1.22)

    9. Kyle Connor (1.18)

    10. Auston Matthews (1.16)

    Kaprizov seems to score like some top 10 players...

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    31 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    How often do we see a 3rd round or later make it?  That is where the IA Wild should be judged.  Are we turning more of those types of players into NHLers than other teams?

    Agree, 3rd or beyond are crap shoots.  BUT 1st and 2nds should have a higher probability of making the NHL roster.  2020 was Brackett's first draft.  And please fight the urge to say "it's too early to tell"

    2020: Khuz, O'Rourke, Hunt - GONG!

    Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
    2020 Entry 9 1 Marco Rossi C Ottawa 67's [OHL] 185 45 56 101 85
    2020 Entry 37 2 Marat Khusnutdinov C SKA Juniors (Russia) 91 6 10 16 26
    2020 Entry 39 2 Ryan O'Rourke D Soo Greyhounds [OHL]          
    2020 Entry 65 3 Daemon Hunt D Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL] 13 0 1 1 0

    2021: Peart, Bankier - GONG!

    Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
    2021 Entry 20 1 Jesper Wallstedt G Lulea HF [SweHL] 5 0 0 0 2
    2021 Entry 26 1 Carson Lambos D Winnipeg Ice [WHL]          
    2021 Entry 54 2 Jack Peart D Grand Rapids [Minn. H.S.]          
    2021 Entry 86 3 Caedan Bankier C Kamloops Blazers [WHL]

    2022: Haight is the great hope of this draft.  I'm not holding my breath on any of the other 21 years olds

    Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
    2022 Entry 19 1 Liam Ohgren L Djurgardens Jr. [Swe-Jr] 28 3 4 7 2
    2022 Entry 24 1 Danila Yurov R Magnitogorsk Metallurg [KHL]          
    2022 Entry 47 2 Hunter Haight C Barrie Colts [OHL]          
    2022 Entry 56 2 Rieger Lorenz L Okotoks Oilers [AJHL]          
    2022 Entry 89 3 Michael Milne L Winnipeg Ice [WHL]

    2023: This group is especially dicey

    Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
    2023 Entry 21 1 Charlie Stramel C U. of Wisconsin [Big-10]          
    2023 Entry 53 2 Rasmus Kumpulainen C Pelicans (Finland Jrs.)          
    2023 Entry 64 2 Riley Heidt C Prince George Cougars [WHL]
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    27 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    That stuff is amazing.  You should check out Marquette University's HPAC program.  (Human Performance Assessment Core)  Amazing stuff they are doing.

    This makes my point.  The Wild org. having redundant medical facilities (TRIA, Twin Cities Ortho, many hospitals, etc.) would be a bad business decision.

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    3 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    This makes my point.  The Wild org. having redundant medical facilities (TRIA, Twin Cities Ortho, many hospitals, etc.) would be a bad business decision.

    And there are plenty of facilities in Iowa.  These org. are feasting on the insurance companies 

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    45 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    I can't disagree... It certainly could.  Especially if Gus is okay with moving to another team.  MN has been a goalie friendly team and Gus has seen what happens to goalies that leave as well as been one of those goalies on other teams...  smells pretty nice in MN for goalies.   If Wally plays well and Gus wants to stay it may take some team friendly pay to make it happen....

    I'm still hoping the Vaj smell gets better. 

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    8 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    This makes my point.  The Wild org. having redundant medical facilities (TRIA, Twin Cities Ortho, many hospitals, etc.) would be a bad business decision.

    Maybe I'm not grasping your point.   It sounds like you are stating that the IA Wild either have what they need or can get it down the street.  I feel like my interpretation is just way off here.  I think you lost me. 

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    Just now, MNCountryLife said:

    Maybe I'm not grasping your point.   It sounds like you are stating that the IA Wild either have what they need or can get it down the street.  I feel like my interpretation is just way off here.  I think you lost me. 

    My original point is that our drafting is sub par so it wouldn’t matter if we gold plated the locker room in Iowa or brought in the 80’s Oilers for player development the on ice product would still blow. 

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    20 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    Agree, 3rd or beyond are crap shoots.  BUT 1st and 2nds should have a higher probability of making the NHL roster.  2020 was Brackett's first draft.  And please fight the urge to say "it's too early to tell"

    Cool to see it laid out like that.  well done!   Puts our drafts into clarity pretty quickly.

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    40 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    so I'm not clear as to why bill and judd deserve any praise.

    Just doing 1st rounders here back to Judd's 1st year.

    Going back to 2020 Rossi #9 only 5 players after him have more points than he does but with more games played (some by a lot). After Rossi really the only superstar is Jarvis w/213pts in 304gp. 

    2021 Wally #20 & Lambos #26..Great argument can be made here. Johnston was available 3 picks after Wally. Kids a stud so you could definitely say Johnston should've been picked and Wally snagged if he was still available at pick 26. Knies was available before Peart in the 2nd round, probably a miss there. After him there is a pretty big dropoff on GP. Lambos trending up however.

    2022 Ohgren #19 & Yurov #24..Ohgren bust? After Yurov the phenom Hutson was available 2nd round. Other than him the 1st rounders outside of Yurov have 93gp 34pts across 8 players.

    2023 Stramel #21 huge TBD on him, could very well be a miss. The guys after him in the 1st have a combined 15gp 2pts.

    2024 Zeev #12. The guys after him have a total of 4gp 1pt.

    Point being, you can't say that Bill/Judd have struck out looking on these picks and it's not like other teams are finding hidden superstars in later rounds that are NHL ready from the jump or being developed quickly in the AHL. Mid-late 1st round picks aren't a lock for stardom and rounds 2-3 are rarely filled with star talent (outside Hutson which every teams scouting dept. should be chided).

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