The Minnesota Wild Missed Out On A 2003 Repeat

As a human with a father, I was chatting with my dad about the Minnesota Wild's series between Games 5 and 6. We both lamented the back-to-back overtime losses that turned a 2-1 series lead into a 3-2 deficit. Was it a bummer? Sure was. But it wasn't until he said something that I figured out why the series' outcome was so frustrating.

"It'd be nice to get into the second round," he said, "but looking at the roster, they're not going much further than that, right?"

I didn't agree. I'm not gonna lie -- I've got a contrarian streak in me -- but I think there was good reason to push back on that idea. The path for Minnesota to follow in the footsteps of their 2002-03 team was there for the taking.

Both squads were plucky underdogs with a fundamental disadvantage. The salary cap crunch was that for this year's squad. The 2002-03 team's was being fresh off a non-sweetheart expansion draft. However, when the favored Vegas Golden Knights surged back with three straight wins to bounce the Wild from Round 1, the comparisons ended there.

Still... what if? What if Minnesota had put its skates on the Knights' throats in Game 4? What if Gustav Nyquist stayed onside in Game 5, giving the Wild the chance to smell blood at home for a Game 6 closeout? What if they did the damn thing against a Western Conference favorite, the way Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves did against LeBron, Luka, and the Lakers?

The Wild are reeling today, feeling like they had a real shot to get through Vegas. That's not the full tragedy, though. It's that they had a real shot at getting through Vegas would have led to a wide-open West.

Had the Wild played the Winnipeg Jets in the first round, I probably wouldn't be saying this. One, it's hard to see Winnipeg's streak of owning Minnesota ending in the playoffs, but more importantly, is what would await them in the second round. The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars are headed to a Game 7, and the winner of either would be heavy favorites against the Wild in Round 2. Especially Dallas, who smoked Minnesota in six games two postseasons ago and has incredible center depth.

But the Wild would have side-stepped that Round 2 buzzsaw, playing the Edmonton Oilers, who advanced after winning four straight to defeat the Los Angeles Kings in Round 1 for the fourth-straight season. Of course, the defending Western Conference Finalists aren't a pushover. Minnesota would have to contend with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, two incredibly productive playoff performers.

Still... the hard part might have been over for the Wild. The Golden Knights are a deeper team than Edmonton, and much more sound defensively and in net. Moreover, Vegas has always been difficult for the Wild to topple in the regular season, while Minnesota usually plays the Oilers tough.

Since the Kirill Kaprizov Era began, the Wild and Oilers have squared off in 12 games. Minnesota is 8-4-0 against Edmonton, with a plus-9 goal differential. Compare that to their record against, well, any other Western Conference contender during that time:

Dallas: 6-9-0 (8-13-0 inc. playoffs); minus-22 goal differential
Colorado: 8-13-2; minus-21 goal differential
Vegas: 7-9-4 (12-17-4 inc. playoffs); minus-20 goal differential
Winnipeg: 5-9-1; minus-7 goal differential

That's such a rare advantage for Minnesota in the playoffs, even if Edmonton is pretty damn scary. But there might have been someone scarier for Edmonton.

Jonas Brodin. 

McDavid and Draisaitl are always going to get theirs. During these past four seasons (the Wild and Oilers were in separate bubbles in 2020-21), McDavid has five goals and 16 points in 11 games against the Wild, while Draisaitl has seven goals and 18 points in 12 games. At first glance, it doesn't look like the Wild are putting a lid on either guy.

But Brodin is one of the smoothest, fastest backwards skaters in the NHL, and he probably comes the closest. The Wild's defensive ace missed three games against McDavid and Draisaitl, and they went off without Brodin there to smother them. McDavid had three goals and seven points during those three contests, while Draisaitl had two goals and seven points of his own.

Remove those Brodin-less games, and their track record looks much more pedestrian (for them, anyway). 

McDavid: two goals, nine points in eight games
Draisaitl: five goals, 11 points in nine games

Obviously, that's still great, but Brodin has been making players who are averaging 126 points per 82 games over the last half-decade and turning them into point-per-game-ish guys. 

The playoffs are a different beast, sure, and Edmonton has only allowed one goal (and 13 assists, to be fair) to Kaprizov in 11 career head-to-head games. But the Wild probably had a strong path to the Western Conference Finals, even with their salary cap constraints. That would have been a great case to make to Kaprizov that the future is bright when trying to extend him this summer.

Instead, Kaprizov and the Wild will be wondering "What If" after yet another first-round loss.