The Minnesota Wild Have A Kid Conundrum

The Minnesota Wild were always going to be walking on a high wire this season. They're a playoff-caliber team laden with veterans who've been in the fold for a half-decade or more. It's also the case that they're working on bringing along four rookies into the NHL (as well as not-a-rookie-but-21-year-old David Jiříček) into that playoff lineup. Those two things are rarely true at the same time for a team.

Coach John Hynes has been candid about this challenge early on this season. "If they're ready to play, they'll play," he told The Athletic on Monday. "But we also can’t just put nine kids in the lineup and think that all of a sudden, they’re going to be ready to go. We’re not in a rebuilding situation. We’re in a situation where we want to be a competitive hockey team."

Hynes is in a position where his job depends on wins and losses, and it's important to be sensitive to that. The Wild's first four games included three playoff teams from last season, and the Columbus Blue Jackets are no pushover with Dean Evason coaching. They'll have another date with a Division winner on Friday, on the road against the Washington Capitals. It's not a soft schedule where rookies can slip in easily.

That's why we've seen the Wild lean on players like Vladimir Tarasenko (averaging 16:21 minutes per night) and Marcus Johansson (14:03) over Liam Öhgren (9:12) and Danila Yurov (9:05). You're stacking up 1,822 combined NHL games against 34. There's stability in that, and it's clear that Hynes puts value on that experience.

"Veteran players, they’ve been around, they know how to play, they know what the game is about," explained Hynes. "The NHL is a different beast. It’s not college. It’s not junior. No matter how good you were at other levels, you’re playing against the best guys in the world."

It's the age-old NHL coaching conundrum: Ceiling vs. Floor. Maybe you're not impressed with Tarasenko's start, or think that Johansson's contributions don't live up to his role. But they provide a floor. Coaches want to know what they're getting, even if there is theoretically a 22-year-old who could give them more.

Say what you want about someone like Nate Prosser, but there's a reason why he played 360 NHL games, and why would-be upstarts like Jonathon Blum, Ryan Murphy, Gustav Olofsson, and Louie Belpedio combined for just 364.

Still, while the Wild aren't rebuilding, they are definitely building. Or at least, they should be. 

Minnesota has been the ultimate Floor Team for its entire existence, and recent years have been no exception. Even in a relatively disastrous 2023-24 season, the Wild finished with a 39-34-9 record. Despite crushing cap penalties, they rarely have serious issues making the playoffs, and the core of the team has been remarkably intact over the past half-decade.

However, they haven't had a ceiling. Or, rather, that ceiling was built between the first and second rounds of the playoffs. That's what needs to change, and that's why building is required.

It's only been four games, but we've already seen the limitations of Minnesota being a Floor Team. A Floor Team can hold onto a 3-0 lead against the Los Angeles Kings. But when it comes to overcoming their starting goalie giving up six goals? Or knocking off a loaded Dallas Stars team on the road on the second of a back-to-back? Those are jobs for a Ceiling Team, and the Wild aren't putting themselves in much of a position to be that. Not yet.

Again, Öhgren and Yurov are averaging just nine minutes a night, firmly behind Johansson and Tarasenko on the depth chart, even as Hynes blew up his lines on Tuesday night in Dallas. Buium has averaged 20 minutes a night, thanks to the power play. However, Jiříček has sat in the press box for three straight games since Opening Night.

You can put some blame on those players, and it'd be warranted. Hynes spent training camp and preseason putting Öhgren and Yurov in prime lineup spots, and neither was particularly impressive. It's also true that they aren't demanding more playing time in limited minutes during the regular season. They healthy-scratched Jiříček due to mistakes he made against the St. Louis Blues, and he's spent the past few games receiving instruction from player development coach Alex Goligoski, who played 1,078 NHL games.

As a rule, unimpressive veterans will get the benefit of the doubt over unimpressive rookies. But, as Anton Chigurh posed in No Country For Old Men, if the rule leads you to this, of what use was the rule?

It's now been 192 minutes -- or 1.57 viewings of No Country For Old Men -- of game time since the Wild have scored a 5-on-5 goal. That's over three games, during which Öhgren and Yurov's roles have been minimal, and Jiříček's has been nonexistent.

Perhaps this will feel a bit like singling out Johansson and Tarasenko, but it's essential to note that their veteran presence hasn't made them blameless participants in this ineptitude.

Johansson had an opportunity to score a go-ahead goal at 5-on-5 against Columbus, but whiffed on a shot in the slot, which immediately went the other way to put the Wild down 3-2. It instantly snuffed out a would-be furious comeback, and Minnesota never recovered.

On Monday, Johansson put the Los Angeles Kings on the power play two minutes after getting on the board to make the game 3-1. The Kings converted on their way to earning a standings point unnecessarily from the Wild.

Meanwhile, Tarasenko's four power-play assists are papering over some horrid 5-on-5 play. The former 40-goal winger has spent 85.3% of his 5-on-5 minutes playing with Joel Eriksson Ek, one of the game's elite two-way centers. Despite this, Tarasenko has a paltry 28.1% expected goal share at 5-on-5, which is far from the realm of "good enough." Even in a small sample size.

This is all to say: You don't need to be a rookie to lose a team games.

Acknowledging that Öhgren and Yurov haven't done much on the fourth line shouldn't preclude wanting to see them get more opportunities. It's difficult to play your way off the fourth line, especially as a rookie. Your shifts are rare, and they're often short. Puck touches don't come as easily; getting into a rhythm is a massive challenge. 

So when Öhgren showed signs of life against Los Angeles (two shots), why not elevate him to the second power play? Or perhaps give him a test run against Dallas while down 3-0? While Yurov has just two NHL games, he does have 270 games of KHL experience and is responsible in his own end. Why not see what he can do in an offensive role? Remember: Yurov scuffled offensively until getting a regular role for Metallurg Magnitogorsk. Why would Minnesota expect him to flourish with limited minutes?

With Jiříček, it's trickier because Zach Bogosian has had a solid start to his season, and the Wild's blueline is healthy. Still, when benching a rookie for making mistakes, it's important to let them respond. It probably was a good thing to let Jiříček take a breather for a game, maybe even two. But last night, when the Wild were on the road and short on fresh legs, why couldn't they find a spot for Jiříček to apply the lessons he's learning? Even if he goes down to the AHL to get big minutes, does Minnesota want to give him the impression that he's Iowa-bound every time he makes a mistake?

It's understandable to want to slow-play these youngsters, but they will need to ramp things up for them and get them ready for the playoffs. Without some of these players in decent roles, the Wild really are just last year's model, plus Buium. They need to be more than that, and if this 5-on-5 offense keeps up, they might need to make that jump sooner than they'd thought.