By Luke Sims -
Less than two weeks ago, the Minnesota Wild could have come within four points of the Central Division-leading Winnipeg Jets. The Wild had won 11 of their 14 games under new head coach John Hynes, and they had an opportunity to show that they could compete with the best in the West. But the only thing the Wild showed in those games was how much better Winnipeg was in Minnesota’s back-to-back losses.
The Dallas Stars sent a similar message about where the Wild stand in the Central when they outscored Minnesota 11-2 in their recent two-game series. If not for a missed net against the Columbus Blue Jackets, one of the worst teams in the league, the Wild would be looking at seven straight losses.
With a stretch of three home games in four days, the Wild don’t have much margin for error. Minnesota has three winnable games against the Philadelphia Flyers, Arizona Coyotes, and the New York Islanders. If Wild can’t find a way to pick up points in these contests, the sand in the hourglass of this season may have run out.
The Wild are tied with the Buffalo Sabres for the sixth-worst record in the NHL. Minnesota has only 38 points in 40 games, a .475 winning percentage (.571 under Hynes). According to MoneyPuck.com, the Wild have an abysmal 9.3% chance of making the postseason.
We recently saw a team at the bottom of the standings charge back, make the playoffs and win the Stanley Cup. The 2019 St. Louis Blues rode Jordan Binnington’s hot goaltending and a much improved defensive structure to the playoffs. Changing Mike Yeo's systems to Craig Berube's design will do that. While Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury could get hot, it’s unlikely that they will play at Binnington’s level (1.89 GAA and a .927 SV%). And Minnesota already made a coaching change in late November.
The Wild are on pace for 78 points this year. The only other times the Wild finished with less than 78 points in an 82-game season was when Jacques Lemaire was the coach in the 2000-01 and 2001-02 seasons. Last season, the Wild would have finished as the eighth-worst team in the NHL and sixth in the Central Division with that point total. The Athletic projects the Wild to finish the season with 91 points, giving them a 36% chance at the playoffs. This is a higher number than pure math suggests because of the injuries the Wild faces.
Minnesota’s strength of schedule could influence how the remainder of their season shakes out. The Wild played the second-easiest schedule over the second half of the season, and they played the fifth-hardest in the opening half. That certainly helps their chances of overcoming their ugly start.
Teams typically need at least 95 points to qualify for the postseason. Last year, the Florida Panthers and Islanders qualified with 92 and 93 points, respectively. Even if the Wild don’t have to reach that usual 95-point threshold, there’s a seven-game difference between 78 and 92 points.
The Wild are 17-19-4 and have 38 points. They’ll need to score 57 more points over the next 42 games to reach 95 points and have a realistic shot at the postseason.
Minnesota would need to win 29 of the last 42 games to end the year with 95 points. That’s a 29-13-0 record or a .690 winning percentage. Only two teams, the Vancouver Canucks and the Jets, have a .690 winning percentage or better.
But the Wild can combine wins and overtime losses to get to 95 points. That path can only go on for so long, however. With only 42 games left and so much ground to make up, the Wild can only afford to come away with a loss, even an overtime loss, so many times. The more overtime losses the Wild rack up, the fewer chances they have to win those games, and those points go out the door.
The Wild have 84 points to potentially get. They need to secure at least 57 of those points. That’s a point percentage of .679 over the next 42 games. In theory, the Wild could go 20-5-17 and get 57 points. More realistically, the Wild won’t end the year with 21 overtime losses. A large number, however, is not unheard of. Last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Dallas Stars made the playoffs with 11 and 14 overtime losses, respectively. The Wild already have 4 overtime losses. With the pressing need for wins, they could afford to lose six or seven more games in overtime and have a 25-10-7 record over the next 42 games (.595 winning percentage), which is more reasonable.
Minnesota went 11-3-0 in Hynes’ first 14 games as head coach. That .786 win percentage was the best in the league over that span, but that wasn’t sustainable for the rest of the season. The Boston Bruins did it last year, but they were the best regular-season team in the league. Kirill Kaprizov, Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, and Gustavsson will return sooner than later. Still, it’s a lot to ask this roster to play like Boston did in the regular season last year, even if they are fully healthy.
The Wild’s honeymoon phase is over. Dallas beat them in back-to-back games and have outscored Minnesota 19-5 in three games this season. However you want to look at it, the Wild must start winning immediately to make the playoffs. Only half the year remains, and Minnesota will have to kick it into high gear to have any chance of saving their season.
All stats and data via Evolving Hockey, MoneyPuck.com, NHL, Hockey Reference, and Hockey DB unless otherwise noted.
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