By Tony Abbott -
In the endless, three-year-long debate about Marco Rossi's value, the biggest argument of his critics is simple:
He's another Mikael Granlund.
It's not a particularly fair critique for either player. Rossi has been more productive than Granlund at a similar age while sticking at center. Meanwhile, Granlund has played 902 NHL games and has five 60-point seasons under his belt. That's a hell of a player.
Still, the parallels between the two players make it easy for Wild fans to put them in the same box. Granlund and Rossi were drafted in the exact same spot (ninth overall), ten years apart. Minnesota drafted both of them as undersized centers with a lot of hype. They each had false starts in the NHL before adjusting and coming into their own with the Wild.
Granlund played 461 games with the Wild, racking up 317 points, which still puts him in the top-10 in franchise history. Since leaving Minnesota in the Kevin Fiala trade, Granlund has pivoted back to center, spending stints with the Nashville Predators and San Jose Sharks before catching on with the Dallas Stars for their playoff run. Once in Dallas, he apparently impressed the organization enough that the Stars wanted to keep him around, even though he ultimately signed with the Anaheim Ducks.
Granlund signed a three-year, $21 million deal with Anaheim. The $7 million AAV is a match to what Rossi is believed to be asking for in his RFA negotiations with the Wild.
So while it's easy to argue otherwise, let's accept the premise:
Rossi is the next Mikael Granlund.
OK, then. The debate's over. We know how much that's worth, and the price tag is $7 million AAV.
A seven-year deal would take Rossi through his age 24 to 30 seasons, using Hockey-Reference's cutoffs. During that same age range, Granlund averaged 18 goals and 57 points per 82 games. If that's Rossi's exact career trajectory, then we should be able to expect him to be around a 60-point center over that time.
That was the case for Granlund over his last contract (four years, $5M AAV); he averaged 61 points per 82 games during that time. He got $7 million. The market spoke!
Sure, they're different circumstances. Granlund was a UFA, while Rossi's rights are restricted. He can sign with another team, but the Wild have the right of first refusal for the contract and have vowed to match any offer sheet. Teams could get into a bidding war for Granlund's services, while they have to be much more strategic if they wish to pursue Rossi.
Still, even so, we have another Granlund contract that helps us spitball his value -- his three-year RFA deal signed in 2017.
At age 24, Granlund broke out after a shift from center to wing. He blew past his career highs of 13 goals and 44 points en route to a 26-goal, 69-point season. Again, you can draw the parallels between the two players if you like. Granlund increased his career-high by 25 points in a contract year, while Rossi moved his up by 20 last season.
Like Guerin has with Rossi today, Chuck Fletcher seemed to have his doubts about going long-term with Granlund after his breakout season. While Fletcher handed out five- and six-year deals for Nino Niederreiter, Charlie Coyle, and Jonas Brodin, he opted for a shorter-term contract with Granlund, signing a three-year, $5.85 million AAV deal.
It was a "prove-it" deal of sorts, giving Granlund the ability to show he could play at a high level before hitting UFA status. It also came in at a hefty rate, accounting for 7.67% of the salary cap when it took effect.
A 60-point season from a young player was highly valued then, and it remains highly valued now, even if the player doesn't have a long history of achieving that mark. Applying that same percentage to Rossi's cap hit for the upcoming season gives us something in the $7.3 million range. Again, if Rossi is simply the next Granlund... that's what Granlund was worth at a similar stage in their career and trajectory.
The Wild have their line with Rossi, but it doesn't appear to be one that's aligned with the market or reality. The highest reported AAV from Minnesota in a contract offer is $5 million, which matches what Ryan McLeod signed as an RFA this offseason, who put up fewer goals and points than Rossi despite being two years older. Come on.
It's obvious where this writer stands RE: Rossi's value. A full-time center with strong two-way numbers and 60 points at 23 is a much better asset than Granlund was at any stage of his career. But fine, if you want to insist that they're the same player -- skilled, undersized forwards whose slighter frame puts a ceiling on them -- then, once again, we know what that's worth today. If Rossi is indeed the next Mikael Granlund, then pay him Granlund money. This shouldn't be that difficult!
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