The Marco Rossi Injury Could Be the Straw That Breaks the Wild's Back

The Minnesota Wild's never-ending string of injuries continued on Wednesday night. Marcus Foligno and Marcus Johansson were out, and Marco Rossi played only three minutes before taking a Matt Boldy shot off the inside of his knee. 

We don't know yet whether Saturday will see Rossi return to the ice or his 154-consecutive game streak will end. That streak doesn't compare to Phil Kessel's all-time Ironman streak of 1,064 games or the active NHL leader Brent Burns (911). But on this team? Rossi's been the T-800. Matt Boldy is the only other Wild player to have played every game this season, while Rossi and Brock Faber were the only two to play all 82 last year.

Availability, as they say, is the best ability. However, Rossi's got another ability for the Wild.

Dependability.

He's second on the team in points, third in goals, and second in both faceoff wins (397) and faceoff percentage (47.9%). John Hynes has come to rely on Rossi, giving him over 18 minutes of ice time per night, fifth among Wild forwards.

The Wild are already without Kirill Kaprizov, their would-be MVP, and Joel Eriksson Ek, who is considered their most dominant center. That's already enough to shake the foundation of any team, and it certainly has the Wild. In 12 games since Eriksson Ek's absence, Minnesota has gone 5-6-1, scoring 23 goals in that span -- not even two goals per game. With 13 games remaining, the Wild have to protect their seven-point cushion over the playoff bubble with defense and goaltending.

That's already the reality for Minnesota, even with Rossi. What happens if he's out of their equation? It gets real bleak, real fast. 

It's so hard to recover from losing two top centers. Not only is their production gone, but backfilling puts a lot of stress on the centers who must step up in their place. Ryan Hartman hadn't played 19 minutes in a game all season. Suddenly, he's logging over 22 minutes. Freddy Gaudreau was on the ice for 17 minutes. AHL/NHL tweeners Devin Shore and Brendan Gaunce combined for 21 minutes of ice time. 

Credit to the Wild for pouncing on a Seattle Kraken team that was on the second half of a back-to-back, and credit to Hartman and Gaudreau, who had a goal and an assist, respectively. But if you're not worried in Minnesota, then you're dramatically underestimating the value that Rossi has provided to the Wild this year.

With Rossi on the ice at 5-on-5, the Wild have out-scored opponents by a 50-to-32 margin, a 61.0% goal share. You may point out how Rossi spent the early part of the season as Kaprizov center, which, fine, fair enough. Since Christmas, Rossi's Goals For% has remained stable, out-scoring the opposition 21-15 (58.3%). Only two other Wild regulars -- Jared Spurgeon (13-10) and Mats Zuccarello (21-20) -- have a positive 5-on-5 goal differential in that time.

As we say in the Wild Blog Biz: That's wild.

Now, there's a good chance that a squad more beat up than the Tune Squad at halftime only needs to run out the clock and make the playoffs. Evolving-Hockey has Minnesota's playoff odds at 95.0%, and Moneypuck pegs them as 93.8% likely to make it in. Both sites project the playoff bubble at around 90 points, and the Wild could go 4-8-1 down the stretch and get to 92.

But also, if anything could threaten that, it's missing both Eriksson Ek and Rossi until the end of the season. With those two on the ice at 5-on-5, the Wild out-scored opponents 71-47 on the season. That 60.2% goals share is even better than the top team in the NHL, the Washington Capitals (59.9%). Without either center on the ice, Minnesota gets out-scored 48-69, a 41.0% goal share that's only above the disastrous Nashville Predators. 

It's true that Rossi and Eriksson Ek get to play with top-six wingers like Kaprizov, Boldy, and Zuccarello, whereas Gaudreau and Hartman typically don't. Still, it must be said that all of those wingers are out-scored at 5-on-5 by a margin of 11-to-22 whenever centered by someone who isn't Rossi or Eriksson Ek.

There's comfort in knowing that the bar to make the playoffs is very low at this point, given the points they've banked. But if Rossi is out for any extended period of time, the State of Hockey may have to white-knuckle it through the last three weeks of the season.

Given the league's relative parity and the existence of the loser point, it's pretty difficult to pick up fewer than eight points over 13 games. Still, scoring 45% of the 5-on-5 goals while missing half your top power play is a way to do it. Unless the "Get Well Soon" cards to Rossi work their magic, the Wild might stumble into the perfect recipe to prevent them from a Wild Card spot.