The Freddy Gaudreau Trade Is About What Comes Next

The Freddy Gaudreau Era is over in the State of Hockey.

Four years ago, he arrived as an AHL/NHL tweener. However, Gaudreau seized his opportunity, grabbed a regular spot in the Minnesota Wild's lineup, and never let go. Playing wing or center, penalty kill or power play, on lines one through four, there was always a place for Gaudreau on game day. His hands, skating, detailed game, and willingness to play anywhere always ensured that he was on the ice.

2024-25 was a statement year for Gaudreau. He bounced back from a down year to score 18 goals and 37 points while playing in all 82 games. After appearing to be on the outs last offseason, he worked to earn back John Hynes' trust and became a valued member of the team.

But in this weird business, playing well can make a player more likely to be traded to another team. That's what happened Thursday morning, when the Wild shipped Gaudreau to the Seattle Kraken for a fourth-round pick.

By itself, this isn't the most impactful move. Injuries forced Gaudreau to play up in the lineup occasionally, but his skill set is best suited for the bottom six. A fourth-round pick only has about a 17% chance of making the NHL full-time, so the return isn't significant. Instead, this is all about whatever happens next. Trading Gaudreau frees up just a few more options for the Wild going into next year.

First of all, there are the small but obvious salary cap implications. Gaudreau is entering Year 3 of a five-year contract that carries a $2.1 million AAV. Given that the contract represents only about 2.2% of next year's salary cap, that doesn't seem like a significant issue. However, the Wild has increased its cap space from around $15.6 million this summer to $17.7 million, representing a 12% bump. That's not insignificant.

For example, it allows the Wild to land a top free-agent winger like Nikolaj Ehlers (Evolving-Hockey's projected contract: seven years, $8.89 AAV) or Brock Boeser (Projected: seven years, $8.15 AAV) while having around $9 million to re-sign RFAs Marco Rossi (should they choose) and Declan Chisholm to round out the roster and still have cap flexibility in-season. 

Or, it opens space to upgrade at center. The Athletic's Michael Russo reported Thursday that Minnesota has "inquired about" Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Charlie Coyle. Each player would come in at around $3 million more expensive than Gaudreau's contract, but Pageau and Coyle would bring Minnesota more long-term flexibility than they had with Gaudreau.

Gaudreau's cap hit was almost a rounding error, but three more seasons meant that Minnesota would have to pencil in a roster spot for Gaudreau for that time. Not only do the Wild have a wave of forward prospects arriving next year in Danila Yurov and Liam Öhgren, but they also have players who may arrive in 2026-27 and 2027-28 that they must make room for.

Granted, when looking at Charlie Stramel (first-rounder, 2023 Draft), Ryder Ritchie (second, 2024), Rasmus Kumpulainen (second, 2023), Riley Heidt (second, 2023), Hunter Haight (second, 2022), Rieger Lorenz (second, 2022), and Caeden Bankier (third, 2021), not all of these guys are going to play for the Minnesota Wild. Odds are, most of them won't. But having seven potential prospects competing for middle-six spots should yield one or two players, and having a spot cleared out for them to take in a year or two is a good thing in an otherwise log-jammed forward group.

Making a move to swap Gaudreau for Pageau or Coyle would also allow the Wild to take pressure off Yurov when he debuts in North America. The top Russian prospect has played center in the KHL over the past two years, achieving good results. He also has the frame and all-around skill set to stick down the middle in the NHL. Still, that's no guarantee, especially for a 21-year-old rookie travelling across the globe to make his debut.

Gaudreau might not be the kind of center you can put on the third line as a Stanley Cup contender. At least, it didn't work out last year. The Vegas Golden Knights held Gaudreau pointless through their six-game series. Pageau and Coyle have a bona fide third-line center pedigree that would add credibility if they had to hold down a center position while Yurov adjusts to the NHL as a wing.

To say goodbye to Gaudreau, let's once again go over what a great story his tenure in Minnesota was. The Wild have seen many players who toiled for years in the minor leagues, received an opportunity in the NHL, and then couldn't hold onto a permanent spot. In the past five years alone, we've seen Vinni Lettieri, Jake Lucchini, Joseph Cramarossa, Nic Petan, Kyle Rau, Luke Johnson, and Gerry Mayhew get those opportunities. That's no disrespect to them -- getting an NHL job is a hard thing to do.

But Gaudreau was the one guy who did it. It would have been easy to get a cup of coffee, or 50 games, and have the Wild go, No, thanks. Instead, he played well enough that he's going to have a 500-game career, at least. He played well enough that a second organization wanted "Phone Booth Freddy" to play for them for the next three years. That matters.

As for Wild fans, we're saying goodbye to him and hello to a bit more flexibility for Bill Guerin to operate with this summer. What happens next will determine whether or not the club made the right decision.