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  • The David Jiricek Trade Is Still the Right Call


    Image courtesy of Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    When the Minnesota Wild traded for David Jiricek on November 30, they did so partly because the price was right. They got a blue-chip defense prospect for Daemon Hunt and four draft picks. You can argue the draft capital (a first, second, third, and fourth-round pick, staggered between 2025 and 2027) is a lot, and maybe it is. But Jiriceks don't come onto the market often, and the Wild believed in him, so it was a no-brainer.

    Since then, however, the Wild have been hampered not necessarily by the cost of getting Jiricek but arguably by the opportunity cost of making that move. Minnesota was always going to have a tough time at the trade deadline with their salary cap restrictions, but the Jiricek deal cranked up the difficulty. Without their 2025 first-round pick, it was going to be difficult to pry someone like Brock Boeser from the Vancouver Canucks. Instead, the Wild settled for trading their 2026 second-rounder for Gustav Nyquist.

    It's safe to say the route the front office chose is going bust, at least for the 2024-25 Wild. Nyquist hasn't brought offense to the Wild, scoring just three points (all assists) in 15 games. Meanwhile, Minnesota hasn't seen much use for Jiricek in the NHL, playing just six games in the NHL and zero since January 20. As of Tuesday, there's a 12% chance that the Wild will have been aggressive buyers this season while missing the playoffs.

    Second-guessing the Wild is easy when they're (at best) backing into the playoffs. But Minnesota's mediocrity lately is why the Jiricek trade was such a brilliant maneuver in the first place.

    Unlike the Nyquist trade, acquiring Jiricek wasn't a move that would either help Minnesota in 2024-25 or not at all. The use of assets was aggressive, making other moves at the trade deadline difficult. But what kind of deals are we talking about? The opportunity cost for the Wild was almost certainly forgoing short-term player rentals. Instead, the Wild pulled off a forward-thinking swap that should set them up for years.

    That's not just a defensible trade; it's exactly what fans should have wanted Minnesota to do. Unless you expect to see the Wild advance to the second round (Moneypuck puts their odds at 18.6%) or further, most fans would probably prefer the team to sell at the deadline or at least not buy. Trading a first-round pick is by definition a "buyer" action, but obtaining a top prospect is the desired outcome of a "seller." 

    Looking at it through that lens, suddenly, it doesn't matter whether Jiricek was able to make an impact this season. Especially since the Wild were always upfront about this not being a move for this season.

    "I think it's gonna take us a little while to get him up to speed here," Guerin said after making the trade. "There's a lot for him to learn."

    Scouting director Judd Brackett echoed that sentiment, telling The Athletic, "[He] still has some things to work on, obviously, as he transitions to playing pro hockey in North America.

    "But it's really hard to get these types of players."

    That last point is especially true with what Minnesota gave up to get Jiricek in the first place. Columbus is slated to take the Wild's pick at 21st overall. A team can get a useful player at that spot, sure -- Columbus did with Yegor Chinakhov in 2020. At the same time, the home run rate isn't great, and this draft is "below average," per Corey Pronman. And the talent thins out fast.

    Players can always drop, but here are the NHL comparables for numbers 19 to 23 on Pronman's March rankings -- within two spots of 21st overall: Ryan Hartman, J.T. Compher, Ross Colton, Chris Tanev, and Zach Whitecloud. If those prospects hit those projections, Columbus should get a solid player. But that day may be two-to-three years away, and it may also never arrive.

    And if 21st overall is far from a sure bet, what about those second, third, and fourth-round picks? You can find value in those rounds. They will yield role players more often than they'll produce a Jason Robertson, Brayden Point, or Devon Toews. As for Hunt, he has yet to play in the NHL for the Blue Jackets and has just two goals and 13 points in 44 games for the AHL's Cleveland Monsters. Minnesota may have traded him at the peak of his value.

    Meanwhile, if Jiricek hits his reasonable upside, the Wild have an impact top-four defenseman on their hands. They may have that as soon as next season. Even with his skating flaws, Jiricek still put up Monstar numbers for the Monsters. Minnesota seems confident working with their skating and strength coaches this summer will unlock the 6-foot-4 blueliner's potential.

    Will it? That's ultimately what will vindicate or doom the trade. But that's still a solid, smart bet, even if we await the returns. Focusing on the playoff run, it'd have been better for Minnesota to do some LTIR shenanigans and acquire a big name like Boeser for 25 games.

    However, the far wiser move is to focus on building the Wild for their actual competitive window, and that's why the Jiricek trade is still 100% the right call.

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    3 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    Not all teams win, but can we maybe have a team ONE time that actually realistically competes for the cup?

    I'm a bit leery of the ONE time aspect here. I think we are building to a 7-10 year cup window. I'm pretty happy with that. For me, Cup window opens for the '27 playoffs, but we will make strides in the '26 playoffs to be considered a contender.

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    34 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    So, really then, our differences teeter on 1 simple issue: the resigning of Kaprizov. If you're right and Kaprizov is impatient, this will have been all for naught. If I'm right and Kaprizov sees the future as bright and resigns, this will have been the right course. I don't know that things get resolved on July 1, but I'm pretty sure they will be resolved by October 1.

    We seem to see both trades pretty identically. As for Hanzal, I think he broke the locker room and Fletcher had no clue that would happen. Perhaps he came in injured to begin with, but he was far too slow and bumping Haula down was unfair to one of their own. It was as egregious as not starting Talbot game 1 vs. St. Louis.

    Yup 🍻 Bill still have an out though -

    - give Kap the captaincy

    - trade for Top 6 star (full on press for Tkachuk works)

    - make it out of R1 

    Kap may yet stay 

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    2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    We've been mentioned nationally in the Pettersson sweepstakes, and we were mentioned with Miller, though, on that one I think it was NYR or nothing. But, I think the main reason for this is the Guerin cone of silence. He does not want his inquiries reported, nor his negotiations. He chided the Chicago GM when he was goaltender hunting. He did this with agents too. I think Russo likely knows way more than he is willing to share and may be the only writer privy to that information.

    Now, we can all see that we have reached the exit of the long, dark tunnel that was the cap recapture. Business as usual changes. It is time to go big game hunting. Insider information is the best way to start this, having insight into who might be disgruntled. Being GM of the international team gives Guerin a unique perspective and opportunity for inside information, both from the US players, and a little towards other players, particularly Sweden. 

    My expectation is that Guerin takes a late vacation this year, and there will be heavy trading. I think this team gets formed into a contender starting with the '25-26 season, but the results will lag. I expect about 106 points, and at least a 2nd round in the playoffs. I expect Kaprizov resigned, Goose somewhere around $5m/yr., and Rossi maybe matched on an offersheet. (I also expect this to be as good of a deal as Aho was for the Canes)

     

    Mentioned? Yes

    serious? Or at least a proposed trade? No

    hence, we are not interest in high stake game

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    2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I'm a bit leery of the ONE time aspect here. I think we are building to a 7-10 year cup window. I'm pretty happy with that. For me, Cup window opens for the '27 playoffs, but we will make strides in the '26 playoffs to be considered a contender.

    7-10 cup window? No - there is too many unknowns to pop up for anyone predict such long term success. And history of the wild is a good lesson and an example of where it can take you - believe and patience - right back to the starting point with nothing to show for it in 25 years.
     

    We have a superstar now, all this future talk brings only uncertainty as certainty 

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    On 4/4/2025 at 3:36 PM, M_Nels said:

    Double edged sword here though, SJS, Buffalo, Anaheim, Chicago and Detroit have been in rebuilding mode for several years with no light at the end of the tunnel for any of them really. Could be argued that the Wild doing a "competitive rebuild" are closer to a cup than any of them. 

    The only reason they are behind the Wild is because a lot of those teams are in the beginning stages of their rebuild and most of their future elite players are under 24 yrs old. These teams are acquiring the type of elite players you need to win a cup. Number one Centers/Defenceman/Wingers are gotten very early in the draft and seldom become available on the market. See Toews/Kane, Mckinnen/Makar/Rantanin, Crosby/Malkin, Doughty, Hedman/Stamkos, Backstrom/Ovechkin. 

    Those players all have a ring and were all drafted very very early in the first round. I’m not saying that’s the only reason they won but it’s an extremely common factor. It also had extremely good management, player development, drafting and trades etc. The Wild were lucky in acquiring a player in Kaprizov who’s elite but you can’t expect them to strike lightly consistently especially when drafting in the middle of the first round every season. You need every advantage you can get in order to make a deep run in the playoffs and I believe rebuilding to get at least a couple elite players is one of the most important pieces to the puzzle.

    I’m willing to bet, over time, that Ana, Ottawa, Buffalo will make it farther in the playoffs in 3-5yrs than we have anytime recently. We can’t even get out of the 1st round. One of the biggest thing that has set some of these teams back is poor management(Buffalo for instance) Edmonton was managed extremely bad for years but they still got two of the top 5 players in the NHL and a deep playoff run which is farther than we will sniff anytime soon.

     

    SJ has Macklin Celebrini who’s a future #1 Center, Will Smith who’s a future #2 Center, Sam Dickinson who is most likely a top 4 defenseman, William Ecklund who’s a future first or second line winger. They also got Askerov (who’s probably a #1 goalie at the least) with picks and prospects they had stockpiled.

     

    Buffalo has: Dahlin (#1 Defenseman), Peterka (top line winger), Power (top 4 defenseman) Jack Quinn (top 6 winger), Zach Benson(probably a top 6 winger) Jiri Kulick (a solid 2nd or 3rd line Center. Devon Levi and Luka. They also have T. Thompson, A. Tuch, B. Byram which they got with the help of stockpiled picks or prospects.

     

    Ana has: Leo Carlsson who’s a future #1 Center, McTavish who will be a solid #2 Center, Zegras who’s a top 6 winger or Center, P. Minyukov whose will probably be a top 4 defenseman, J. LaCombe whose a top 4 defenseman 

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