By Tony Abbott -
If you're a Minnesota Wild fan sick of the team being handcuffed by their salary cap situation, don't worry, you're not alone. After a trade deadline where the Wild were active but without much impact, general manager Bill Guerin sounded exhausted by the last four years of Cap Hell.
"We couldn't do anything else," Guerin said at his press conference on Friday, explaining the Wild's moves. "I would have loved to be more involved today. But it's not our time to do that. We'll have our time. And you guys just have to wait."
To be clear, "you guys" referred to the media, which Guerin appeared frustrated with. But we -- the fans, the media, and the front office -- are all in a state of waiting. We're all tired of seeing this team have to wait, bide their time, and run out the clock for the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyout scourges to fade.
That's why, when Wild owner Craig Leipold talked about next summer at the beginning of the season, he referred to it as "Christmas Morning." However, if you look around the Central Division, it sure seems Christmas came early.
The Colorado Avalanche had to offload Casey Mittelstadt... and another big piece we'll get back to in a bit... but they acquired Martin Necas, Charlie Coyle, and one of the Wild's major rumored trade/free-agent targets in Brock Nelson. They paid a price in sending top prospect Calum Ritchie to the New York Islanders, a prospect equivalent to Minnesota's Danila Yurov, according to The Athletic's Scott Wheeler. But are they a much more playoff-ready team today than last week?
Absolutely.
Still, we know what's coming -- Christmas Morning came for the Dallas Stars early. They basically stole Mikko Rantanen from the Avalanche, with the Carolina Hurricanes being an unintentional middleman. The move solidified Dallas' status as the favorite to come out of the Western Conference. Even better, they inked Rantanen to a bargain eight-year, $96 million ($12M AAV) contract.
Again, Dallas paid a price. Logan Stankoven has been snakebitten this season, but if his expected goals (16.9) were more closely aligned with his actual goals (nine), we'd be looking at a 21-year-old with 37 points in 59 games despite logging 15 minutes a game. The two first-round picks they parted with will be, at worst, in the mid-20s, but that's still significant draft capital.
But is it worth it to lock in Rantanen for a playoff run and eight extra years?
Are you even asking?
Rantanen's 27 goals and 70 points in 62 games don't show it, but he's had a down year in terms of overall impact. Particularly, his power play game is uncharacteristically poor... though it says something that he's still tied for 13th in scoring. Even so, since the 2020-21 season, Rantanen has produced 25.0 Standings Points Above Replacement, according to Evolving-Hockey, which is also tied for 13th in the league.
Tied with Kirill Kaprizov, to put a fine point on it.
If you're the Wild and planning for "Christmas Morning," how are you going to compete with that? Part of that fabled day will be (hopefully) locking Kaprizov into a long-term extension. But Dallas just added a top-15, Kaprizov-type player. Dallas preemptively raised the stakes.
Look at the two major free-agent targets that most frequently get tied to the Wild: Nelson and Brock Boeser. Let's keep using the last half-decade as our measuring stick. Nelson's been worth 14.1 SPAR since 2020-21, which puts him tied for 81st in the NHL. Boeser is at 8.1 SPAR during that time, which has him tied for 200th.
Don't get us wrong -- adding a top-100 and top-200 player in the NHL isn't nothing. Still, the gap between a top-15 player and a top-80 player is extremely significant. Just do the math: Nelson and Boeser's combined SPAR don't quite add up to Rantanen's impact over that time. And that's if the Wild were able to get both players in the fold.
So, how can the Wild make a "Christmas Morning" splash that can keep up with Dallas and Rantanen? Mitch Marner (29.4 SPAR since 2020-21; fifth in the NHL) is the only UFA in that Rantanen tier and doesn't have the Minnesota-area connections most Wild free agents tend to have. Beyond that, Nikolaj Ehlers and John Tavares are closer to Nelson's level than a top-15 player.
It will be difficult because it's rare for the NHL's best players to move around. You have to strike when a Matthew Tkachuk or a Rantanen becomes available. The Wild were financially unable to take advantage of the Star Player On the Move Sweepstakes this time around. That couldn't be helped, but now? They have to make sure they're ready for the next time. If they settle for less than an elite player, Minnesota may be doomed to live in Dallas and Rantanen's shadow.
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