By Justin Wiggins -
Do you want the good news or the bad news first?
Okay, let’s start with positivity. Heading into their double-header in Southern California this weekend, the Minnesota Wild remain in first place in the NHL by points percentage.
They’ve reached the summit of the standings to this point in the season due to their suffocating defense at even strength, elite goaltending, and a keen ability to finish at a high rate, given their middle-of-the-pack scoring chances for. It’s the exact blueprint a team burdened with nearly $15 million in dead cap hits must strive for to contend.
Okay, now the bad news. The only blip that could derail the freight train that is the Minnesota Wild would most likely be a slew of injuries. With the recent announcements of their top center, Joel Eriksson Ek, and best defender, Jonas Brodin, being sidelined for weeks with lower-body and upper-body injuries, respectively, the Wild have perhaps reached their breaking point with what this roster can sustain.
Outside of losing their Hart Trophy frontrunner Kirill Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek and Brodin are perhaps two of the most pivotal players they cannot replace. Add in the continued absence of first-line winger Mats Zuccarello, and the roster's punching power becomes even thinner.
The Wild will have to survive through the new year by improving two areas of their game that have struggled for most of the year: special teams.
Marco Rossi has emerged as a viable second-line center. Still, even with improved depth behind him this year, nobody can replace what Eriksson Ek brings with size, defense, and tenacity down the middle. While Rossi and Frederick Gaudreau have taken a step forward this season, neither can truly replicate what Eriksson Ek brings to the lineup when fully healthy.
Brodin was playing arguably the best hockey of his career this season, regardless of which defensive partner was to his right. Declan Chisholm has been a nice revelation in his small sample size in the top four on the blue line. However, unlike Brodin, he doesn’t offer the Wild a true shutdown defenseman against some of the game’s most elite forwards.
For the Wild to remain amongst the elite in the NHL standings until their return, they must lean on their struggling special teams to carry them while waiting for their injured cavalry to return. That’s a tall task, considering how much they have underperformed on the penalty kill and power play to this point in the season.
Let’s start with their 26th-ranked penalty kill, which might be most impacted by losing Eriksson Ek and Brodin.
The Wild are only converting on 73.3% of kills this season. Their ineptitude on the kill was a key contributor to their previous head coach, Dean Evason, getting fired just over a year ago and has not improved much under John Hynes.
For a team that currently ranks near the top of the league for goals against, it speaks to how truly dominant they’ve been at five-on-five defensively, considering their putrid penalty kill. You have to imagine their defense at even strength might take a hit this month without Eriksson Ek and Brodin.
We’ve already outlined how difficult it is to simply replace Brodin and Eriksson Ek's production in the defensive zone. However, the coaching staff can help mitigate their absence on the penalty kill.
Simple math tells us the Wild are averaging 2.4 times shorthanded per game. Let’s assume Eriksson Ek and Brodin miss all 13 games remaining in December. That equates to 31 times shorthanded throughout the month. Continuing at a 73.3% success rate would equal roughly eight power-play goals against over that time.
Now, expecting the Wild to suddenly boast a top-10 penalty kill unit after struggling for most of the year would be a tough ask. However, if the coaches and players can find a way to piece together a league-average unit in the short term, it could help mitigate any dip in even-strength defensive performance.
The league average penalty kill rate is 78.9%. If the Wild can find a way to improve their shorthanded unit by roughly 5%, it would equate to 6.5 goals against as opposed to 8 at their current rate. That doesn’t seem like a large difference. However, eliminating 1.5 goals against over 13 games can equate to an extra win or two in the standings.
If you think losing Eriksson Ek and Brodin defensively at even strength might cost you a win or two during their absence, improving the penalty kill by even a small margin can help overcome that gap.
But that’s only half the equation the Wild should follow in December. Because while losing Eriksson Ek and Brodin is a blow defensively, so is losing Eriksson Ek and Zuccarello on the offensive side.
Perhaps nobody on the roster has better chemistry with Kaprizov than Zuccarello. Eriksson Ek’s absence also thins out the rest of the forward group. It’s difficult to expect Gaudreau or Ryan Hartman to suddenly elevate their play at even strength to make up that difference over a 13-game sample size.
But the Wild can add offense through the power play amidst their key departures. Currently ranked 18th in the league at 19.4%, the unit hasn’t been nearly as detrimental as the penalty kill. But in the past ten games, it’s been trending in the wrong direction, converting on only 15.8% of their chances.
Without two of their top six forwards, the Wild must lean upon it to pick up the slack.
Let’s extrapolate the same exercise used for the penalty kill to find out just how much of a difference even a league-average power play could contribute to keeping the Wild afloat in December.
Minnesota has earned 2.7 power plays per game. In the same 13 games remaining in December, if they continue at their recent ten-game pace, they would convert on 5.5 man-advantage goals total over that span. The league average power play converts 21.22% of their chances. If they can find a way to succeed at a similar rate this month, those 5.5 goals will turn into 7.5 goals scored.
Combining their hypothetically improved power play and penalty kill, if the Wild can get both units to league average over this difficult stretch, they would see a +3.5-goal differential through just their special teams over the next 13 games.
That swing could make up all the difference the Wild may lose at even strength with the extended losses of Eriksson Ek, Zuccarello, and Brodin.
With Minnesota's performance to this point in the season, the slacking special teams have largely been on the back burner for most fans. But with their slew of injuries, the Wild must lean on them if they want any shot at remaining atop the standings upon the return of some of their stars.
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