Should the Wild Reunite With Mikael Granlund At the Trade Deadline?

The NHL trade deadline is upon us. On March 7, teams will decide whether they’re ready to compete for the Stanley Cup or pack it in for the season and sell off assets. 

Trade season is always ripe for some fascinating discussion, and this year is no different.

The media and fans are trying to determine whether the Minnesota Wild will be buyers. They may want to capitalize on a strong start but probably don’t want to deplete their farm system and shorten their contention window. 

However, a couple of weeks ago, The Athletic’s Chris Johnston predicted the Wild would trade for Mikael Granlund, and it’s an appealing idea.

What Can Granlund Bring To the Wild?

Granlund appears to fill many of Minnesota’s gaps they’ve had this season. The most important of his abilities would be the potential to provide depth scoring beyond anything the Wild have. 

Granlund’s 36 points this season would make him Minnesota’s fourth-leading scorer behind Kirill Kaprizov (50), Marco Rossi (38), and Matt Boldy (37). Minnesota has sorely lacked depth scoring, so injecting Granlund into the lineup would be valuable. 

Beyond pure points, Granlund also produces quality possession. The San Jose Sharks reside near the bottom of the NHL standings. However, with Granlund, they’re at least competitive. The forward usually produces well for his teams, regardless of where he’s played. 

For the last four seasons, Granlund has outperformed his team in his on-ice expected goals% compared to when he’s not on the ice. 

(Source: Moneypuck)

Granlund’s flexibility is the second obvious upside to trading for him. Although he has spent most of the year at center, he has also played the wing in the past. A capable forward who can play up and down the lineup would be crucial for Minnesota, and that need is especially apparent given the team’s injury issues.

The Wild lack center depth, but that wouldn’t be an issue if they add Granlund. Joel Eriksson Ek gets hurt again? Granlund has played most of this season as San Jose’s top center. Need to inject some scoring into the bottom six when they aren’t scoring? He can also do that. 

If the Wild get players back from injury, Granlund would probably play as a middle-six winger, adding offense into whatever line needs it. His versatility becomes even more crucial when players go down with injury. If this season is any indication, Minnesota will always need more healthy players.

While bringing Granlund back might not be the big move some are hoping for, he would be an incredibly valuable addition to this lineup.

How Does the Deal Get Done? 

It’s fun to imagine where Granlund fits in the lineup and what the player brings to the team. Still, there is something we must address. 

Is it even feasible for the Wild to make the move? 

Money is the biggest obstacle to this trade. The Athletic’s Chris Johnston highlighted this hurdle in his piece projecting the trade. With Minnesota’s $15 million dead cap, the team has no money to spend without making space on the currently constructed roster. Granlund is in the final year of a contract that pays him $5 million annually, so the Wild would have to figure out how to fit him on the roster. 

Usually, the Sharks could cut that number by retaining half of Granlund’s salary, making his cap hit a much more stomachable $2.5 million. Unfortunately, San Jose has already used their retention spots. However, there is another option. Minnesota and the Sharks could find another partner in the trade. 

The deal is more straightforward if they can find a third team to trade Granlund’s deal to, who will retain half his salary for the remainder of the year before sending him to the Wild. Teams have done this before, and it usually doesn’t cost too many assets to broker. 

In one case, the Tampa Bay Lightning paid the Detroit Red Wings a fourth-round pick for their services in acquiring David Savard. If Minnesota wants to go on a playoff run, the relatively minuscule odds that a fourth-round pick ends up as a regular NHL’er is well worth the risk to get the deal done. 

Minnesota could also bury some contracts, but a three-team trade would be easier. San Jose and the Wild must get creative to move Granlund, but it’s doable. 

The Cost Of Doing Business

The most important uncertainty with a trade like this is what it would cost the Wild to complete it and whether they have the assets to do so. First, remember that the Wild’s best course of action to fit Granlund’s contract will likely involve a third team retaining his salary. 

The best way to determine value is to look at past trades for players of similar value and contract status. The Tyler Toffoli trade deadline deal from last season is a great place to start. The New Jersey Devils traded Toffoli to the Winnipeg Jets for a 2024 third-round pick and a 2025 second-round pick. The Devils also retained 50% of Toffoli’s $4.25 million cap hit as part of the deal. 

Toffoli (31 at the time of the trade) is similar in age to Granlund, 32. When New Jersey traded him, Toffoli was scoring .72 points per game, while Granlund was scoring .84 points per game. 

Still, of Granlund’s 36 points in 43 games so far this season, only 11 of them are goals. On the other hand, Toffoli was a more prolific goal-scorer, with 26 goals in 61 games. That trade is a great template, although the Sharks will probably want a bit more due to Granlund's importance to their roster.

Mikael Granlund has also been traded relatively recently. In 2022-23, the Nashville Predators dealt Granlund to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a second-round pick. He’s playing better this year, so his value is likely a bit higher. Still, there’s an established market for him.

Let’s quickly look at the Wild’s available upcoming draft picks:

(Source: Puckpedia)

The cupboard is bare, but Minnesota already has many developing prospects like Zeev Buium and Danila Yurov, which makes the need for incoming prospects less vital. If the Wild want to avoid draining their drafting resources, they could include a young prospect in the deal. 

Final Trade Proposal

Minnesota receives: Mikael Granlund

San Jose receives: Some combination of a 2025 second-round pick, a 2026 third-round pick, and a mid-level prospect

Third trade partner receives: 2025 4th-round pick from Minnesota

In a trade like that, the Wild would get a potential difference-maker in the lineup without significantly mortgaging their future. It isn’t a giant swing, but it may be a perfect way for Minnesota to bolster its chances this year without going all in.