Should One Game Change the Wild's Playoff Expectations?

The Minnesota Wild got more than a shot in the arm after Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek's return on Wednesday night. The team and fans got a reprieve from three-plus months of depressingly boring hockey. From Kaprizov's injury on December 23 until Tuesday, the Wild ranked 31st in total goals and tied for dead-last in 5-on-5 goals.

Over those 43 games, 22 of them saw Minnesota score two or fewer goals. If you're wondering why the Wild's playoff spot got less and less secure over that span, that's why. They went just 3-17-2 when scoring two or fewer times down the stretch. There was no Plan B when Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi, and Mats Zuccarello weren't putting the puck in the net.

Judging by Wednesday night, those guys are back to being Plan B. When Eriksson Ek is netting four goals and Kaprizov chips in two of his own, it snaps into focus just how much Minnesota missed their Plan A. And sure, we don't want to overreact here. The San Jose Sharks are dog doo, and Alexandar Georgiev had an .873 save percentage before being unfortunate enough to give up eight goals on Thursday.

Giving up seven goals against them should also maybe put a damper on things.

But it isn't what Eriksson Ek and Kaprizov did that sparks the imagination. It's how they did it. These weren't two players lucking into goals while shaking off rust. Eriksson Ek and Kaprizov earned every goal. Eriksson Ek had nine unblocked shot attempts that added up to 1.71 expected goals. The goals Eriksson Ek scored had xG values of 0.53, 0.39, 0.31, and 0.10. Those are quality, quality scoring chances, and he spent the final 45 minutes of the game looking like his usual 30-goal self.

Meanwhile, Kaprizov was jacking up shots like vintage Allen Iverson. San Jose blocked five of his 15 shot attempts, which might indicate some rust, but if that's rust? Playoff teams should be afraid. Of the ten shots that did go through, they added up to a full expected goal's worth of value. And when you shoot with the accuracy Kaprizov can, you can often expect more than "expected" goals indicate.

Finally, after months of waiting, the Wild got what they needed: Volume shooters.

You must give Boldy some love here; he also had four shots on seven unblocked attempts. And credit to him for the full season -- only David Pastrnak, Nathan MacKinnon, Filip Forsberg, and Brady Tkachuk have had more unblocked shot attempts in 2024-25. Those four forwards and Zach Werenski are the only NHLers with more shots on goal. For any of the nitpicks you can make about Boldy, he's carried the load for Minnesota in that regard.

But that's one guy who can get those shots off, and we saw those limitations sap the Wild over time. At least for one night, those limitations were no more.

Also, don't look now, but the Wild might have a functioning power play again. Maybe that's not surprising, except that the reason might have more to do with Eriksson Ek than it does Kaprizov. 

Over the past four seasons, Minnesota has consistently had a greater power play efficiency with Eriksson Ek on the ice than anyone else. Over the past four seasons, the Wild average 9.91 goals per hour on the power play (tops on the team), compared to Kaprizov's 9.36 (third). There are reasons for that -- Kaprizov will take extended shifts on the power play, playing with their inferior second unit. Still, it's a testament to how much sway Eriksson Ek has over Minnesota's special teams.

As strong as Rossi is as a net-front presence, there just isn't any replacing Eriksson Ek. From the 2021-22 to 2023-24 seasons, Eriksson Ek had at least 12 goals per year, with 37 total power play tallies. That's tied with John Tavares and Connor McDavid (!!!) over that span. Having Eriksson Ek there to win battles, set up screens, and clean up the garbage keeps Kaprizov free to work the mid-range game in a way no one else can.

So, does this change things for the playoffs? It was easy to see the Wild's destiny when they couldn't score for half a season. They'd sneak into the playoffs as a Wild Card. They'd get to play the Winnipeg Jets or Vegas Golden Knights. And they'd almost definitely get stomped. Even with Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek as theoretical wild cards, who knew if they'd actually be healthy and ready to hit the ground running?

We know now.

It feels foolhardy to change the prognostication for a team based on an 8-7 overtime win against a last-place Sharks team. But how can you not, after seeing how Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek played like game-changers?

The big concern about these star plays was about rust. How could they get up to speed for the playoffs after weeks and months on the shelf? Now it's time to wonder if Minnesota has an advantage. Look how ground down Eriksson Ek was this winter after myriad injuries and stress building on his leg. Now, he looks totally healthy and was undoubtedly the best player on the ice last night.

Or look how tired Boldy, Rossi, and Brock Faber have sometimes seemed, taking on added responsibility during the season's dog days. Kaprizov being there is preferable, of course, and it probably makes the path to the postseason smoother than it's been. But we've seen Kaprizov go to the playoffs at less than 100% in 2023 against Dallas. Now, he gets to be at his physical best going into the dance.

Winning a playoff series is still going to be a tall order. The Wild will play either a perennial Stanley Cup favorite in Vegas or Connor Hellebuyck, the best goalie in the world. Even with Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek, this team will be playing with a major disadvantage in talent and cap space.

But at least for one night, a playoff run seemed within grasp. And Wednesday gave the State of Hockey a bit of hope for a team that was dragging and a fan base that was resigned to another first-round exit.