Should JJ Peterka Be On Minnesota's Radar This Offseason?

The Minnesota Wild are only months away from being players in the marketplace. For the past four years, Bill Guerin's front office has scraped by on cheap extensions for key players, hometown discounts, and backfilling through the minor leagues. Signing impact free agents like Jake Guentzel, Dougie Hamilton, and the late Johnny Gaudreau were never options. Even heavily discounted players like Ryan O'Reilly and Matt Duchene were off the table.

So, too, were any trades involving major players. Just this season alone, the Wild sat on the sidelines as J.T. Miller, Dylan Cozens, Brock Nelson, and Mikko Rantanen (twice!) switched teams. But with about $13 million of dead cap hit disappearing this afternoon, the State of Hockey is gearing up for "Christmas Morning."

The problem is, with so many other teams having already done their shopping, the Wild might be entering a "Jingle All the Way"-type situation. There's just one Turboman doll out there in free agency, and there are a lot of would-be Sinbads itching to scoop up Mitch Marner. The Wild might be a lead candidate to land pending UFA Brock Boeser, but recent comments by his GM suggest the NHL might see him as closer to Booster than Turboman.

So, if free agency is out as a route to land a premier player, there's just one left: the trade market. On Tuesday, we discussed Elias Pettersson as a logical player to aim for as a top trade target, but unless you're Paul Fenton, a GM never wants to have just one trade option. 

So it was interesting to hear Michael Russo discuss a name we haven't heard connected to Minnesota yet on Thursday's "Worst Seats in the House" Podcast. 

JJ Peterka of the Buffalo Sabres.

Here's Russo:

The one thing that Bill Guerin tried doing at the trade deadline is giving up a bunch of assets. He doesn't want to give up picks. ... I think he wants to keep as many bullets in the chamber for this offseason; I still think there's gonna be some big trade he makes.

I still keep looking at Buffalo. I know they loved Dylan Cozens, and [he's] obviously off the board. The guy I still think is JJ Peterka. I think they love him -- I would love him -- and the question is, what can you give up to get him? Would it be [Liam] Öhgren? And then you'd have to re-sign him, it would cost money, and what do you do with [Marco] Rossi at that point?

Acquiring Peterka would be an interesting way to take advantage of Minnesota's competitive window. Peterka turned 23 in January, putting him in line with the Wild's young core of Matt Boldy (24), Marco Rossi (23), Brock Faber (22), Jesper Wallstedt (22), David Jiricek (21), and Zeev Buium (19). Peterka can grow with the Wild's core in a way that a 28-year-old like Boeser can't.

But Peterka isn't just young, he's been productive in his NHL career. He just passed his career-best with his 51st point. His 47 goals and 102 points in his past two seasons are comparable to the Wild's young stars in Boldy (50 goals, 124 points) and Rossi (42 goals, 93 points). While Buffalo didn't trade him at the deadline, the trade rumors aren't likely to go away, either.

However, if the Wild swing a trade for Peterka, that's likely their one shot at adding a star player to their ranks. After what would surely be a hefty extension for the winger, Minnesota wouldn't have the cap space to add elsewhere without dramatically shifting its DNA as a team. They also might run low on trade assets after deals for Peterka and Jiricek. So the question is one of opportunity cost. Is it worth closing off other avenues to get Peterka?

The flying ointment with Peterka is that, unlike Pettersson, Peterka is a natural wing. Peterka isn't your guy if you want to see the Wild cash in their trade and cap space chips for a center. But even as the Wild already have Kirill Kaprizov, Boldy, and (for now) Mats Zuccarello on the wing, Peterka is capable of helping one of Minnesota's greatest weaknesses: 5-on-5 scoring.

Partly because of injuries and partly because of their dead-cap-induced depth issues, the Wild are 28th in the NHL with 2.15 goals per hour at 5-on-5. That isn't just a this-year problem, either. In 2023-24, Minnesota ranked 26th in 5-on-5 goals per hour (2.43). The year before that, their 2.22 goals per hour were 29th. 

If you're looking for correlation and causation, losing Kevin Fiala was the turning point for Minnesota's offense. There's zero chance the Wild would go back and undo the trade, and even less chance the Los Angeles Kings wouldn't take Brock Faber back. Still, Minnesota has struggled to fill that void of speed and skill ever since.

Peterka would be that player. There are 341 forwards who've played 1,000-plus minutes at 5-on-5 over the past two seasons. Peterka is tied for 25th in goals per hour (1.09) and 35th in points per hour (2.22). Here are some star wingers that Peterka bests in both categories: Rantanen, Clayton Keller, Sam Reinhart, Lucas Raymond, and Brady Tkachuk.

While Peterka hasn't been a major factor on the power play, his ability to drive offense at 5-on-5 appears elite. Evolving-Hockey's Goals Above Replacement metric puts Peterka's Even-Strength Offense as the 11th-best in the NHL for the past two years -- one spot behind Kaprizov. For this season alone, his Even-Strength Offense is fifth, behind only Leon Draisaitl, Kirill Marchenko, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Nick Suzuki.

What would the Wild have to send back to Buffalo? Interestingly, Danila Yurov might be the closest swap in a one-for-one trade. In January, Corey Pronman ranked the NHL's best Under-23 players and prospects. Peterka came in at 43rd on his list -- in a tier reserved for players at the top/middle-of-the-lineup bubble. Yurov is in the same tier, ranked 49th on the list.

Minnesota views Yurov as a potential top-six center, and he'll be on an entry-level deal, so there's plenty of reason to think that Guerin and Co. might balk at that price. But such a move would be intriguing over trading an established player like Rossi. Adding Peterka to a team with Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, Boldy, Rossi, Faber, Jiricek, and Buium gives Minnesota a potentially contending core that can compete as soon as next season. 

If the Wild can't swing a deal swapping Peterka for an amalgam of picks and prospects and choose to trade a Rossi instead of a Yurov, they can't say the same thing.

Fans love potential, and it's hard not to see the upside in Yurov. But we know it's not always a smooth transition into the NHL. Rossi had difficulty translating his high-end AHL production into top-six numbers in the NHL. Öhgren played in men's leagues in Sweden but hasn't shown he's ready for the NHL this year. Minnesota ran out of patience with Marat Khusnutdinov, who struggled to adapt from the KHL to the NHL. (However, admittedly, he's less talented and touted than Yurov).

If the Wild can land Peterka without taking anyone off their roster, they'll have a core of top-end, NHL-ready young talent. It's off to the races from there. So, while Peterka might not be the best player Minnesota could theoretically land this summer, and he comes with some flaws, the things he does well should help the Wild compete and do so immediately. The potential is obvious, all the Wild need to do is get off the sidelines and make their splash.