Robert Thomas Should Be Guerin's Primary Deadline Target

The Minnesota Wild must improve their center depth at the trade deadline. Vincent Trocheck is one of general manager Bill Guerin‘s options. Still, he’s over 30, and many fans are tired of adding older players. That concern makes sense.

Could the St. Louis Blues trade Robert Thomas to the Wild? 

It’s possible because Thomas has a no-trade clause (NTC), but Guerin could convince him to waive it. The Blues are a divisional rival, so St. Louis might not trade him to the Wild. Still, if Thomas agrees to waive his clause, then Guerin would have more leverage. 

Thomas has an $8.13 million cap hit, and the Blues signed him through 2030-31. He would be 31 when his deal ends. Trocheck has three years left at $5.63 million. The question is, would the Wild rather have Thomas with five years left or Trocheck with three? 

Thomas by the numbers (all-situations) 

T-62nd in assists (22)

Ahead of Brandon Hagel, Sam Bennett, Patrick Kane, Trocheck, Filip Forsberg, Jack Hughes, Mats Zuccarello, Dylan Larkin, Brayden Point, Kevin Fiala, Auston Matthews, and Elias Pettersson. 

Thomas has more assists than Kane, Trocheck, Jack Hughes, Zuccarello, Larkin, Point, and Matthews. His assist totals highlight that he's a better fit than Trocheck as Kirill Kaprizov’s center. He has also been a better playmaker than Zuccarello. Thomas has even outperformed Point and Matthews, who are two of the league’s premier centers.

T-53rd in primary assists (14)

Ahead of Quinton Byfield, Sam Reinhart, Brad Marchand, Bennett, Jason Robertson, Alex Tuch, Nikolaj Ehlers, Nazem Kadri, Kirill Marchenko, Boldy, Kane, and J. Hughes.

Thomas has more primary assists than Reinhart, Robertson, Ehlers, Kadri, Boldy, Kane, and J. Hughes. Kadri is another Wild target, but Thomas has been better in this area. Even in a down year, Thomas has been more productive than J. Hughes.

T-11th in takeaways (22)

Ahead of Sean Couturier, Nico Hischier, Jackson Blake, Pettersson, Lucas Raymond, Boldy, Matthews, Jack Eichel, Leon Draisaitl, Leo Carlsson, Tage Thompson, and Sidney Crosby. 

Thomas is showing stronger defensive instincts than Couturier, Hischier, Raymond, Boldy, Matthews, Eichel, Draisaitl, Thompson, and Crosby. His 52.3% faceoff percentage also makes him a top option on the penalty kill.

T-44th in goals above expected (3.8)

Ahead of Eichel, Alex DeBrincat, Will Smith, Forsberg, Ivan Demidov, Hagel, Marchenko, Ehlers, Kaprizov, Pettersson, Fiala, Nikita Kucherov, and Mikko Rantanen. 

Thomas has only 11 goals, but he has still exceeded expectations. His expected scoring (7.2) is higher than Eichel (13.6), DeBrincat (23.3), Ehlers (11.5), Kaprizov (22.5), Kucherov (22), and Rantanen (17.8). He may not be a top goal scorer like most of them, but he produces enough goals.

69th in assists per 60 (1.66)

Ahead of Marchenko, Trocheck, Thompson, Tuch, Smith, Cole Caufield, Dylan Cozens, Kadri, Hagel, Alex Ovechkin, Boldy, Bennett, Reinhart, Forsberg, Dylan Guenther, Mason McTavish, Larkin, and Pettersson. 

Thomas has been more impactful than Trocheck, Thompson, Cozens, Kadri, Ovechkin, Boldy, Reinhart, Larkin, and Pettersson. Even in a down season, he has more assists than Boldy and Thompson. Boldy is a gifted playmaker, but he still falls short of Thomas. 

T-105th in points per 60 (2.49)

Ahead of Trocheck, Mathew Barzal, JJ Peterka, Fiala, McTavish, Hischier, Pettersson, Kadri, Blake, Byfield, and Pavel Buchnevich. 

Thomas is still producing more points than Trocheck, Barzal, Kadri, Blake, Byfield, and teammate Buchnevich. While most aren't big names, he outperforms both Kadri and Trocheck, making him the safer bet. 

T-50th in shooting above talent expected (3.1)

Ahead of Raymond, Connor Bedard, Logan Cooley, Draisaitl, Trevor Zegras, Travis Konecny, Hagel, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kyle Connor, Trocheck, Smith, Eichel, Blake, Caufield, and Fiala. 

Thomas has been excellent at generating high-quality shots. He's outperforming Raymond, Bedard, Cooley, Draisaitl, Zegras, Connor, Trocheck, Smith, Eichel, Caufield, and Fiala. Thomas is creating better scoring chances than top players like Bedard and Draisaitl. 

Kadri has two 60-point seasons, a 70-point season, and one point-per-game season in his career: 

• 61 points in 82 games (2016-17)
• 87 points in 71 games (2021-22) 
• 75 points in 82 games (2023-24) 
• 67 points in 82 games (2024-25)

Trocheck has two 70-point seasons in his career: 

• 75 points in 82 games (2017-18)
• 77 points in 82 games (2023-24)

Thomas has two 80-point seasons, including two point-per-game seasons, in his young career:

• 77 points in 72 games (2021-22)
• 86 points in 82 games (2023-24) 
• 81 points in 70 games (2024-25) 

Thomas’ injury history is a blessing and a curse 

Thomas has been injured 14 times over the past seven seasons. Most were upper-body, but he's also had several lower-body injuries. Thomas has only played a full season once, in 2023-24. His injury history lowers his trade value. 

He’s an underwhelming playoff performer, but has shown recent improvement

In his last 23 playoff games, Thomas has 17 points. Before that, he had 9 points in his first 29 games. He has improved as his career has progressed. He had 8 points in 7 playoff games last year. 

Guerin can use Thomas’ NTC to his advantage

It’s possible Thomas would agree to come to Minnesota. The Wild have a stronger core, with Kirill Kaprizov, Quinn Hughes, Matt Boldy, and Brock Faber, which gives him better teammates. 

Due to his NTC, Thomas can control where he goes. If he wants to go to Minnesota, the Blues would have to honor his trade demands, even if another team offers a better deal. That makes him a smart buy-low, high-reward option. 

The Wild should focus on building a core that opens a large window to contend. Thomas is six years younger than Trocheck, who is entering his prime with more potential. Meanwhile, Trocheck is nearing the end of his prime and hasn’t been as productive.

In a trade for Thomas, the Wild wouldn’t have to give up Danila Yurov, Charlie Stramel, Adam Benak, or Jesper Wallstedt. Due to Thomas' NTC, he can choose to come to Minnesota, which means the Blues would have to accept the deal if they want to move him. Beyond those protected players, other prospects are available for trade to make the deal work. They can potentially buy low.

Playoff lines 

Forwards

Yurov - Thomas - Kaprizov 

Boldy - Eriksson Ek - Zuccarello 

Marcus Johansson - Stramel -

Vladimir Tarasenko 

Marcus Foligno - Nico Sturm - Yakov Trenin 

Vinnie Hinostroza 

Defensemen 

Quinn Hughes - Brock Faber 

Jonas Brodin - Jared Spurgeon

Jake Middleton - Zach Bogosian 

Daemon Hunt 

PP1:

Boldy - Eriksson Ek - Kaprizov 

Thomas - Hughes 

PP2:

Yurov - Stramel - Tarasenko 

Zuccarello - Faber 

PK1: 

Thomas - Boldy 

Brodin - Faber

PK2: 

Sturm - Trenin 

Middleton - Spurgeon 

Goalies 

Filip Gustavsson 

Jesper Wallstedt 

The Wild could also try to buy low on Jordan Kyrou. His NTC allows Guerin to negotiate a deal in which the Blues could retain 50% of his contract for the next five years, avoiding salary-cap issues to extend Hughes. 

Guerin could use this trade to bring Thomas and Kyrou to Minnesota. Still, his main focus should be recruiting Thomas first to drastically improve their center position.