Overpaying For Quinn Hughes Is Impossible

The State of Hockey wakes up on Saturday to the rumbling aftershocks of the Quinn Hughes trade. And in taking the temperature based on comments on Hockey Wilderness, elsewhere on the internet, and personal text messages, it seems one of those shocks is of the sticker variety.

One can definitely argue that the Vancouver Canucks maximized their return for Hughes. The jewel of the trade for them is Zeev Buium, who came into this season as a consensus top-10 prospect in the NHL. They got a legitimate top-six center in Marco Rossi, who is 24 and coming off a 60-point season and a good start before injuries struck. They got a solid NHL-ready(ish) prospect in Liam Öhgren, and a first-round pick in 2026. It's a really good haul for a rebuilding team forced to sell off a franchise player. 

The largest point of contention seems to stem from surrendering Buium in the deal. NHL teams are usually loath to give up prospects of Buium's caliber -- they're young, cost-controlled, and full of potential. Putting on the Sigmund Freud glasses to psychoanalyze the fanbase, perhaps they have lingering memories of the Wild giving up Alex Tuch as a top prospect before he was able to establish himself in Minnesota. 

Or it might not be that deep. Buium's the rare prospect where you can throw around comparisons like Hughes or Cale Makar and not sound like someone who breathlessly compares J.J. McCarthy to Tom Brady. It makes sense that fans would be attached to the idea that he, too, could grow into being a player like Hughes. Why surrender Buium plus two roster players and a first-rounder if Buium might grow into the role in the near future?

The reason why is simple: Hughes is the Hughes-like player that we think Buium can become. There's uncertainty with Buium, and no, it's not because he didn't immediately take the NHL by storm. It's unlikely that he will be Hughes, mostly because most prospects -- hell, most S-Tier prospects -- don't turn into Hughes. Hell, Luke Hughes has the same parents as Quinn, and he hasn't even turned into Quinn yet. 

The Athletic's Corey Pronman may have illuminated that point when he spoke at length about Buium ahead of this season. "[Buium] brings you out of the seat with his talent. He's so skilled, so smart, so dynamic. A great skater," the normally reserved prospect evaluator gushed. "When I see him. "Honestly, when I watched him, I see (Zach) Werenski. I see that guy at the same age."

Look, Zach Werenski rocks. He contended for the Calder Trophy in his rookie year with a 47-point season. He's scored 20 goals from the blueline twice. Last season, he finished runner-up for the Norris Trophy and seventh for MVP, and he's producing at a point-per-game pace this season.

And yet, as great as he is, he's not transcendent in the way Hughes is. Werenski has averaged 57 points per 82 games throughout his career, while Hughes is averaging 77. Werenski's play has been worth a cumulative 23.7 Standings Points Above Replacement throughout his career, while Hughes is at 27.3 SPAR... and that's with 134 fewer games. Hughes has also been a Norris Trophy finalist twice before his 26th birthday, while Werenski didn't accomplish that until his age-27 season.

Buium has the talent to beat the odds, sure, but it's much more likely that he's "just" a No. 1 defenseman than an All-World defenseman like Hughes. It's just simple probability. 

The Vancouver Canucks know this, too. They didn't make this trade because they were excited about cashing in a 26-year-old Hughes for a younger version. As Vancouver beat writer Harman Dayal wrote for The Athletic, "With the writing on the wall that Hughes wasn’t going to re-sign in Vancouver long-term, the Canucks had to do their best to minimize the pain." The Canucks almost certainly would have preferred to keep Hughes. 

That fact alone should dispel the reservations about the price involved. Trading for Hughes also means giving up Marco Rossi, who has looked like a low-end No. 1 center over the past two seasons. Rossi's a strong player with a nose for the net, a responsible two-way game, and sneaky grit. Is he ever going to be considered an MVP candidate? Probably not.

Meanwhile, Hughes is at that level. As for Öhgren and the first-round pick? The former might be a solid middle-six winger, while the latter is a lottery ticket. 

So if we're scoring at home, there are just two risks for this trade: That Buium hits his 99th-percentile outcome and becomes a Hughes-type player, and that Minnesota can't convince Hughes to stay in the State of Hockey. Are the risks noteworthy? Sure, but they're also acceptable. And even if one of those outcomes happen, that might not mean Minnesota automatically loses the trade.

Buium might be everything the Wild think he'll be, but the fact of the matter is that Minnesota needed him to be a superstar this season to maximize their Stanley Cup window. That's not a fair expectation, maybe, but that's how the Wild are built.

Kaprizov is healthy, on pace for 47 goals, and most crucially, making $9 million against the cap before his cap hit nearly doubles. Important players like Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Johansson, and Marcus Foligno are well into their 30s. Their cornerstone players: Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Brock Faber are in the age-23-to-29 sweet spot. The Wild still have about $6.3 million of deadline cap space to make another move. 

For those reasons, this may be the year Minnesota is best-suited to make a run. So if it costs Rossi, Öhgren, and a first-round pick for Bill Guerin to, effectively, hit fast-forward for six years of Buium's development, that's worth it.

Wild fans should already know how challenging it can be waiting for prospects when the contention window says it's go-time. That's what happened with the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter Wild core. They waited for top prospects like Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle, Jonas Brodin, Matt Dumba, Jason Zucker, and Nino Niederreiter to grow up fast and boost an aging core.

Those players reached a high level in the 2016-17 season, but by then? Parise and Suter were 32, and their best years were behind them. Mikko Koivu was 33, and about to go into decline. They had the one great season that year, got goalie'd in the first round, and that was that.

Acquiring Hughes is about avoiding that mistake. Having Hughes and Kaprizov in the fold and in their primes over the next two seasons gives Minnesota two playoff runs that look more promising than any in franchise history. They don't have to wait for someone to hit their stride, hoping they'll fall in the middle of the Venn diagram between prospects developing and aging veterans holding on. The pieces are largely in place, go win some games.

That probably makes the deal worth it even in the worst-case scenario: that this ends with Hughes walking in the summer of 2027. Again, Kaprizov's at the absolute height of his powers, at age 28. The Wild hope he'll age well, and his all-around skill set suggests he should still play at a high level into his 30s, but his ability to bring a Cup to Minnesota is probably at its apex this year and next. Hughes and Kaprizov for two years might represent a greater chance at the Cup than Buium and Kaprizov for the next nine.

Besides, seeing as the Wild are the only team to have written a $17 million check to a superstar, it's going to be tough to call it a slam-dunk that Hughes will be gone in two years. 

Much like it was with Kaprizov this summer, the price for Hughes was substantial, but also, it's a price any team should be willing to pay. Players as good as Hughes don't hit the trade market often, and certainly not when they're in the middle of their prime. You pay whatever price to get those players when they become available, because regardless of what's getting sent back, the team landing an All-World player is going to walk away the better deal.