One Number Will Tell Us Whether Quinn Hughes Stays Or Goes

Bill Guerin looked exhausted but delighted after trading for Quinn Hughes in mid-December. A call to his old boss, Jim Rutherford, had resulted in an opportunity to land the NHL’s second-best defenseman. 

It was nearly a perfect trade. The Minnesota Wild needed a scoring boost, and Hughes breaks out the puck with aplomb. Guerin only had to give up Marco Rossi, who it felt like Guerin always believed was too small, Liam Öhgren, whose development had stalled, and Zeev Buium, whose upside is Quinn Hughes. 

The only catch? Minnesota only has Quinn Hughes under contract for one more season. 

“You can’t make promises,” Guerin said when a reporter asked if Hughes or his agent, Pat Brisson of CAA Hockey, had offered any reassurances about re-signing in Minnesota. “After the deal is done, talking to Quinn and Quinn’s agent, I think Quinn will really like it here.”

Guerin had to make the trade, regardless of Hughes’ contract situation. He had built a .500 team with little hope of succeeding in the playoffs this season. The Wild needed a jolt of talent, and a top-tier defenseman like Hughes can transform a middling team into a monster.

Still, Hughes could leave at the end of the season, and it would be a devastating trade for the Wild. In addition to losing the league’s second-best defenseman, Minnesota will have lost Rossi, Ohgren, and Buium – three first-round picks – and a 2026 first-rounder. They likely will revert to being a .500, first-round-and-out team again through most of Kirill Kaprizov’s prime.

Nobody can predict the future, but there’s a number that comes close. Minnesota’s playoff odds leapt from +4500 to +2500 after they traded for Hughes. That’s still meaningfully behind the Colorado Avalanche (+320), Vegas Golden Knights (+850), and the Dallas Stars (+1200) – Minnesota’s three most likely playoff opponents. 

However, Minnesota’s Stanley Cup odds are even with the New Jersey Devils (+2500), who employ the other two Hughes brothers. The Devils took Jack Hughes first overall in 2019 and have him signed through the 2031-32. Two years later, they drafted Luke Hughes fourth overall. They’ve signed him through the 2029-30 season.

Quinn Hughes has to be interested in playing with his brothers. If he doesn’t see a viable pathway to winning in Minnesota, especially with Colorado and Dallas in the division, he could sign with the Devils as an unrestricted free agent. He could also push for the Wild to trade him in the offseason or at next year’s trade deadline.

The Devils are a significantly worse team than Minnesota. New Jersey has 42 points, a negative goal differential, and resides on the playoff bubble in the East. 

The Wild have 52 points, a positive goal differential, and are still third in the Central Division.

Therein lies the problem. MoneyPuck gives the Avs a 64.5% chance of advancing past the first round, and an 12.1% to win the Stanley Cup. Both are the league's highest marks. Comparatively, the Wild have a 52.2% chance of reaching the second round for the first time since 2014-15 and a 7.3% chance of winning it all. 

That’s still higher than Dallas (48.1%, 5.5%), which Vegas believes is two times more likely to win the Cup. It’s also higher than most of the league. However, the Wild’s path is significantly harder than it would be if they played in a different division. 

Minnesota likely will have to go through the Stars, Avs, and Golden Knights to reach the Stanley Cup. Meanwhile, if the Devils make the playoffs, they face steeper competition as a wild-card team, but less so if they can finish in the top three in the Metropolitan Division.

New Jersey would likely play the Carolina Hurricanes or Tampa Bay Lightning (both +750) if they make the playoffs as a wild-card team. However, the Devils would likely face the Washington Capitals (+1600), the New York Islanders (+10,000), or the Philadelphia Flyers (+15,000). 

According to MoneyPuck, Washington has a 44.8% chance of making it out of the first round. The Islanders are at 30.6%, and the Flyers are at 24%. New Jersey is 16.6%, although that would increase if they were in the playoff picture.

The Wild are a significantly better team than New Jersey. They also have the advantage of being the only team that can sign him to an eight-year extension. Hughes is also a competitive player who is “a hockey nut,” according to Guerin. “He watches every game. He knows what’s going on in the league.”

Hughes likely wants to play on one of the league's three best teams and knows the Devils aren't that good. Vegas odds also aren’t gospel. They’re a mix of psychology and analytics. The oddsmakers must get people to bet on their odds, and they want to get equal money on both sides. 

It’s not as though Hughes will check the Vegas odds to decide whether to re-sign in Minnesota. However, if he gets the hunch that he’s just as likely to win a Cup in New Jersey, he’s as good as gone. In that case, the Wild will be lucky ever to have +2500 odds to win it all again during Kaprizov’s prime. 

Guerin’s only job this season is to ensure that Minnesota decreases that number after the trade deadline this year. Otherwise, the fallout will be dire.