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  • Offer Sheeting Marco Rossi Would Be A Win-Win For Minnesota's Central Division Rivals


    Image courtesy of Rob Gray - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    The opening of free agency on Tuesday will represent a Moment of Truth for the Minnesota Wild and Marco Rossi.

    The two entities are in a staring contest over the 60-point center's second contract. The Wild have previously given Rossi an offer of five years at a $5 million AAV, or a bridge deal for fewer dollars, comparable to deals Anton Lundell and Quinton Byfield signed last season. Rossi is no doubt seeking money comparable to RFA signings this offseason, like Matthew Coronato (six years, $6.5M AAV) or Matthew Knies (seven years, $7.75M AAV). 

    Where does his true market lie? We might find out soon. Perhaps as soon as today.

    July 1 isn't just the start of unrestricted free agency; it's the start of restricted free agency, as well. Starting today, teams will be able to try to woo young players from other teams and entice them to sign new, shiny deals. With a diluted UFA market -- the top centers, for example, are Mikael Granlund and Pius Suter -- and so many teams looking to improve, this might be the only route for many teams to try getting actual upgrades.

    Many times, teams don't bother with offer sheets unless it's for a player with a team that's in a bind with the salary cap. Most teams will automatically match an offer sheet, meaning that you just negotiated a contract for another team. Still, if Minnesota hasn't blinked thus far, another team could easily call their bluff.

    That is, if they have the draft capital to do it. To sign Rossi in the $6.5 to $7 million range -- which goes far past the line Minnesota's drawn in the sand thus far -- a team would have to compensate the Wild with their own first and third-round picks in 2026. Not every team has that to offer. For example, the Vancouver Canucks, who have shown interest in Rossi. However, other teams linked to Rossi, such as the Buffalo Sabres or Calgary Flames, have the ammunition to call Guerin's bluff.

    But hey, maybe the Sabres or Flames don't think Rossi's worth the asking price, either. That'd give them some downside to offering Rossi a contract in the range he wants. However, there are five teams for whom signing Rossi to a contract would offer absolutely zero downside.

    The bad news for Minnesota?

    They're all in the Central Division.

    As of 6:00 pm on June 30, the Chicago Blackhawks, Nashville Predators, St. Louis Blues, Utah Mammoth, and Winnipeg Jets all have their first and third-round picks in 2026. The Blues ($1.6M under the cap) would have to clear space later this summer to sign the center, but the Predators ($12.1M), Mammoth ($18.4M), Blackhawks ($22.5M), and Jets ($23.5M) all have money to throw around Tuesday.

    Worse yet, money to throw around, but nowhere to spend it. Teams like the Mammoth were hoping to make a pitch for superstar forward Mitch Marner. That's off the table; he signed with the Vegas Golden Knights. The best remaining free agent forwards are Nikolaj Ehlers and Brock Boeser.

    After that? Well, hope you're a fan of 36-year-old Patrick Kane.

    If any of these teams are going to try making a splash this week, why pay a premium for, say, Granlund when you can try scooping up Rossi at a comparable price? Just looking at the Central Division, all five of these teams could easily have a motivation to try to snipe a 23-year-old center.

    Chicago: Rossi immediately provides more splash to a strong youth movement, while giving them a stable, two-way center on a team that is already considering moving Connor Bedard and/or Frank Nazar to the wing. 

    Nashville: Rossi would provide Nashville with either a third center to pair with Ryan O'Reilly and Steven Stamkos, or the flexibility to move Stamkos to the wing to try squeezing more offense from their splash signing from last summer. O'Reilly (34) is UFA in two years, while Stamkos (35) is UFA in three.

    St. Louis: Rossi would give the Blues the flexibility to offload the final three seasons of 33-year-old Brayden Schenn's contract, with the possibility to get a massive haul the other way for their captain. After years of drafting big at forward (Jimmy Snuggerud, Dalibor Dvorský, Zach Bolduc), St. Louis may have the size to insulate Rossi in a way the Wild don't feel they can.

    Utah: $7 million can buy you a strong 1-2-3 punch at center. Barrett Hayton might be outmatched as a second-line option, with Rossi pushing him down. However, as a 3C? Hayton would be in his ideal spot, with Rossi rounding out the Mammoth's top-six behind Logan Cooley. Plus, you know coach André Touringy is going to approve. 

    Winnipeg: The Jets have a miserable time of free agency, being unable to attract any free agent who isn't 1) 37 years old, 2) coming back from two seasons of not playing, and 3) a hometown hero. If you're Kevin Cheveldayoff, this is essentially the only opportunity in your life where you can present a five-year, $35 million offer for a top-six center and make it a compelling pitch.

    That's just the motivation to do an offer sheet if the Wild don't match. There is almost zero downside for any of these teams to sign Rossi to a contract and have the Wild match. Even if you think Rossi is great value at $7 million, forcing Guerin to match would disrupt a rival's salary structure and require him to spend significantly more money than he wants.

    A more expensive Rossi theoretically means that the Wild will have a more difficult time trading him for the haul they're seeking for him. 

    It's a no-lose situation for four of these Central Division rivals, and maybe even five. Either they get a young player of a caliber they wouldn't be able to get in free agency, or they sabotage the Wild and make it much harder for them to execute Guerin's five-year plan. There are teams outside the Central who could undoubtedly benefit from offer sheeting Rossi, but for the ones within the division, it's a move that would be particularly devious and brilliant.

    Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.

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    2 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    in all likelihood - DET is not in the PO next year and likely be towards the bottom of the standing.... it would be kinda awesome for us to luck in to their top 5 pick.

    That would mean Stevie Y is probably out in Detroit. I still think a Danielson for Spurgeon could be a win-win trade for them. I have them making playoffs next season.

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    2 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    That would mean Stevie Y is probably out in Detroit. I still think a Danielson for Spurgeon could be a win-win trade for them. I have them making playoffs next season.

    i doubt they can get in as top 4 in atlantic - FL, Tampa, TOR, OTT are ahead of them, not to mention maybe Sabres finally come to play. But maybe a WC birth - but that's their ceiling. 

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    As for the article, I don't think Tony quite hit the nail on the head, in fact, it's kind of a shank. What GM is going to waste their time with a $6.5-7m offer for Rossi? It's just going to be matched. Are you just trying to piss off Guerin? Most GMs like to have a working relationship with other GMs. There's a few that don't care. 

    I don't see Rossi moving unless that offer is >$7.1m. It's not much, but it is in compensation. That's a 1, 2, 3 unprotected in next year's draft. I think I'm right on the contract number but it might be $7.2m. 

    If I'm in Guerin's office right now, I'm matching anything with a 1, 3  compensation. At 1, 2, 3, I'm reading the deal. Depending on who the team is that's offering it, I'm considering the compensation. 

    If it's Chicago, I think I take the compensation. If it's a team in the upper echelon, I think I swallow hard and match. Then I'd circle that team on the board and try to figure out how I'm going to get them to screw the pooch. 

    When Guerin played, I wonder if he had rivalries? I wonder if he had a little hate in him? I see him as a guy who had plenty of guys he'd give a little extra shove, or a little harder body to in his playing days. Maybe he needs a few more villains in his life!

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    In 20 years exactly 12 offer sheet transactions have been completed. 44 in the history of the NHL. Everyone is talking about it but I find it difficult to take seriously. I guess if it does happen I’ll be like one of those people in a scary movie that did something stupid.

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    9 hours ago, greg said:

    Oh yes they will tout the upcoming signing of Kaprisov.

    They are not touting anything yet. You don't think Kaprizov has heard all the Christmas hype from CL and Billy? You don't think Kaprizov doesn't see what we see? It's not money that's going to get Kaprizov to stay. It's winning and it better be sooner than later. So now Christmas in July has been postponed indefinitely and we don't know exactly what Chrismas means. There is a big problem attracting high end UFA's here. Tarasenko is just looking for a paycheck and Sturm is the unicorn who actually wants to be here. 

    I wonder why Boeser did a 180 and decided to sign with Vancouver? 

    I have said before Billy is probably as polarizing around the league GM's and players as he is on this board. 

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    2 hours ago, MacGyver said:

    It's not money that's going to get Kaprizov to stay. It's winning and it better be sooner than later.

    I'm not disagreeing with you at all, Mac. But stories are out there that Kaprizov called Tarasenko a few times on Monday and encouraged him to sign with the Wild. Sounded like Vlad had some sort of NMC and Kirill was trying to talk him into waiving it.

    You don't invite someone to a party and then not show up yourself. Maybe the conversation was to give the Wild a season to see what happens and then both leave or both stay? Maybe it was Kirill is signing and he wants Tarasenko to be his next Lizard? Hard to say. Would have liked to have read about an extension signed today, though.

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    What a strange offseason so far for the Wild and the rest of the league. Panthers managed to keep their Cup winning roster together for the most part somehow. Utah is going to be a tough out in the West. Vegas adding Marner. No easy games on the schedule next season... but there never are for our beloved Wild.

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    16 minutes ago, ArizonaWildFan said:

    I'm not disagreeing with you at all, Mac. But stories are out there that Kaprizov called Tarasenko a few times on Monday and encouraged him to sign with the Wild. Sounded like Vlad had some sort of NMC and Kirill was trying to talk him into waiving it.

    You don't invite someone to a party and then not show up yourself. Maybe the conversation was to give the Wild a season to see what happens and then both leave or both stay? Maybe it was Kirill is signing and he wants Tarasenko to be his next Lizard? Hard to say. Would have liked to have read about an extension signed today, though.

    This is what clinched it for me. I spend a fair amount of time reading and listening to interviews. I was 80% sure KK was going to re-sign with us based on his exit interview. Knowing now that he convinced Tarasenko to sign here boosts that to 90% for me. Pretty sure he's not going anywhere.

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