By Tony Abbott -
The opening of free agency on Tuesday will represent a Moment of Truth for the Minnesota Wild and Marco Rossi.
The two entities are in a staring contest over the 60-point center's second contract. The Wild have previously given Rossi an offer of five years at a $5 million AAV, or a bridge deal for fewer dollars, comparable to deals Anton Lundell and Quinton Byfield signed last season. Rossi is no doubt seeking money comparable to RFA signings this offseason, like Matthew Coronato (six years, $6.5M AAV) or Matthew Knies (seven years, $7.75M AAV).
Where does his true market lie? We might find out soon. Perhaps as soon as today.
July 1 isn't just the start of unrestricted free agency; it's the start of restricted free agency, as well. Starting today, teams will be able to try to woo young players from other teams and entice them to sign new, shiny deals. With a diluted UFA market -- the top centers, for example, are Mikael Granlund and Pius Suter -- and so many teams looking to improve, this might be the only route for many teams to try getting actual upgrades.
Many times, teams don't bother with offer sheets unless it's for a player with a team that's in a bind with the salary cap. Most teams will automatically match an offer sheet, meaning that you just negotiated a contract for another team. Still, if Minnesota hasn't blinked thus far, another team could easily call their bluff.
That is, if they have the draft capital to do it. To sign Rossi in the $6.5 to $7 million range -- which goes far past the line Minnesota's drawn in the sand thus far -- a team would have to compensate the Wild with their own first and third-round picks in 2026. Not every team has that to offer. For example, the Vancouver Canucks, who have shown interest in Rossi. However, other teams linked to Rossi, such as the Buffalo Sabres or Calgary Flames, have the ammunition to call Guerin's bluff.
But hey, maybe the Sabres or Flames don't think Rossi's worth the asking price, either. That'd give them some downside to offering Rossi a contract in the range he wants. However, there are five teams for whom signing Rossi to a contract would offer absolutely zero downside.
The bad news for Minnesota?
They're all in the Central Division.
As of 6:00 pm on June 30, the Chicago Blackhawks, Nashville Predators, St. Louis Blues, Utah Mammoth, and Winnipeg Jets all have their first and third-round picks in 2026. The Blues ($1.6M under the cap) would have to clear space later this summer to sign the center, but the Predators ($12.1M), Mammoth ($18.4M), Blackhawks ($22.5M), and Jets ($23.5M) all have money to throw around Tuesday.
Worse yet, money to throw around, but nowhere to spend it. Teams like the Mammoth were hoping to make a pitch for superstar forward Mitch Marner. That's off the table; he signed with the Vegas Golden Knights. The best remaining free agent forwards are Nikolaj Ehlers and Brock Boeser.
After that? Well, hope you're a fan of 36-year-old Patrick Kane.
If any of these teams are going to try making a splash this week, why pay a premium for, say, Granlund when you can try scooping up Rossi at a comparable price? Just looking at the Central Division, all five of these teams could easily have a motivation to try to snipe a 23-year-old center.
Chicago: Rossi immediately provides more splash to a strong youth movement, while giving them a stable, two-way center on a team that is already considering moving Connor Bedard and/or Frank Nazar to the wing.
Nashville: Rossi would provide Nashville with either a third center to pair with Ryan O'Reilly and Steven Stamkos, or the flexibility to move Stamkos to the wing to try squeezing more offense from their splash signing from last summer. O'Reilly (34) is UFA in two years, while Stamkos (35) is UFA in three.
St. Louis: Rossi would give the Blues the flexibility to offload the final three seasons of 33-year-old Brayden Schenn's contract, with the possibility to get a massive haul the other way for their captain. After years of drafting big at forward (Jimmy Snuggerud, Dalibor Dvorský, Zach Bolduc), St. Louis may have the size to insulate Rossi in a way the Wild don't feel they can.
Utah: $7 million can buy you a strong 1-2-3 punch at center. Barrett Hayton might be outmatched as a second-line option, with Rossi pushing him down. However, as a 3C? Hayton would be in his ideal spot, with Rossi rounding out the Mammoth's top-six behind Logan Cooley. Plus, you know coach André Touringy is going to approve.
Winnipeg: The Jets have a miserable time of free agency, being unable to attract any free agent who isn't 1) 37 years old, 2) coming back from two seasons of not playing, and 3) a hometown hero. If you're Kevin Cheveldayoff, this is essentially the only opportunity in your life where you can present a five-year, $35 million offer for a top-six center and make it a compelling pitch.
That's just the motivation to do an offer sheet if the Wild don't match. There is almost zero downside for any of these teams to sign Rossi to a contract and have the Wild match. Even if you think Rossi is great value at $7 million, forcing Guerin to match would disrupt a rival's salary structure and require him to spend significantly more money than he wants.
A more expensive Rossi theoretically means that the Wild will have a more difficult time trading him for the haul they're seeking for him.
It's a no-lose situation for four of these Central Division rivals, and maybe even five. Either they get a young player of a caliber they wouldn't be able to get in free agency, or they sabotage the Wild and make it much harder for them to execute Guerin's five-year plan. There are teams outside the Central who could undoubtedly benefit from offer sheeting Rossi, but for the ones within the division, it's a move that would be particularly devious and brilliant.
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