It was more than a celebration of a franchise icon. Make no mistake, Marc-Andre Fleury deserved all the praise he received in his final game in front of the Pittsburgh Penguins fans, who continue to adore him years after his departure.
A sentiment that Minnesotans should echo when Fleury finally hangs up his skates.
But if Monday proved anything on their recent road trip, the Wild will need the future Hall of Famer to have more than just a swan song season. They will need the man so eloquently dubbed “Flower” to be a key contributor on a playoff-hopeful team.
Following his 26-save effort in the penultimate game of their road trip, Fleury took in the scene around him. As a lifelong M.A.F. idolizer, I was truly happy for him to have that moment. It’s a good thing such an emotionally personal game happened this early in the year because it’s time to turn the page from Well, that was a great story to It’s time to rewind the clock and help this team reach the playoffs.
Minnesota's goaltending situation has been a blue half-circle full of surprises. Filip Gustavsson is off to a scorching start, reminding folks of his Vezina-finalist season two years ago. It’s a crucial reason the Wild find themselves in such a favorable spot in the standings as the calendar flips to November. (Yes, I will be shaving this month. Nobody wants to see that.)
Fleury has settled in after a rocky first start with two straight wins in Tampa and Pittsburgh. His stats are so-so, but the Wild will welcome that, given the situation in Iowa.
Blue-chip prospect Jesper Wallstedt is not exactly pushing the Wild to get him back to Minnesota with his play so far. In five starts, the Swedish netminder has a .862 save percentage and a 4.27 GAA. He’s 1-3-1 in those games, and Iowa is off to a terrible start in a year they were hoping to finally compete again.
To be fair, the defensive group in front of Wallstedt is less than ideal. And Iowa's schedule hasn’t been easy to start the season, with his four losses coming against a group of teams with a combined 17-3-0 record.
It’s a small sample size. Still, if Wallstedt continues to struggle in Iowa, it’s hard to imagine the Wild calling him up for those 15- to 20-ish starts in Minnesota some folks had envisioned. With that, Fleury has reclaimed the burden as the clear No. 2 goalie on the pro club.
This year, there was also a realistic scenario where the Wild’s season would be similar to their last. The goaltending wouldn’t improve, and a myriad of injuries to a veteran-laden team would derail the season by Christmas. In that case, Fleury would slide into the role of a veteran just trying to enjoy himself in the last days of his storied career.
But not anymore. Fleury suddenly finds himself as a key contributor on a Stanley Cup playoff-bound team. Don’t believe me? Moneypuck.com has the Wild’s chances at making the playoffs at 92%, which is good for the fourth-highest chances in the league.
Dom Luszczyszyn’s own model on The Athletic has the Wild’s chances at returning to the playoffs a little lower than Money Puck. Still, he favors their chances at 88%.
If the Wild can continue to rack up points at their current pace, both will be in the high 90s by Thanksgiving. Therefore, the next few weeks for the Wild will be extremely crucial. A study performed by Sportsnet just last year found that, “Of the 240 teams to find themselves in a playoff spot on U.S. Thanksgiving since the 2005-06 season, 184 have gone on to make the post-season the following spring. That’s a 76.7 percent success rate.”
Furthermore, of the 56 teams in the above study that eventually fell out of the playoff picture after the Thanksgiving milestone, 31 were only a single point in front of the last team out of the wild card standings. It's important to be in a playoff position by Thanksgiving day, but you become a near-virtual lock if you can be near the top of those standings on that same day.
The Wild are three points clear of the ninth-place Edmonton Oilers with two games in hand. They have 13 games between now and Thanksgiving to build upon that cushion.
With Wallstedt off to such a slow start, it’s up to Marc-Andre Fleury to take his game to another level because Gustavsson can’t play all 13.
Fleury's numbers have improved since his disastrous first start against the Seattle Kraken. Still, Fleury desperately needs to improve upon giving up goals on low-danger shots.
According to Money Puck, Fleury has given up more low-danger chance attempts against than expected in two of his three starts. Fleury has faced 94 low-danger shots in all three starts, resulting in 2.67 expected goals against. However, he's given up four goals.
That can’t continue moving forward in the next 13 games before Thanksgiving. The Wild must bank points now while Gustavsson is red-hot, and their veteran roster remains mostly healthy. This team will inevitably face adversity before the season ends. But for now, they need to capitalize on this moment in front of them. Now is not the time for their winning ways to fall back down to earth.
Fleury will play a large role in that. He doesn’t need to turn back the clock to his Vezina-quality years. Fleury just needs to make the saves he’s supposed to make – something that has occasionally eluded him this year.
All he needs to be is a serviceable backup for a playoff-bound team. Fleury needs to elevate his game marginally. For the uber-competitive netminder that Fleury is, I’m sure we will see improved play as he dreams of finishing his career making one last run at Lord Stanley.
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