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  • Injuries Throwing the Wild's X-Factor Fourth Line In Flux


    Image courtesy of Photo Credit: Nick Wosika-USA Today
    Matthew Smith

    Can the fourth line remain a strength for the Wild as the injuries pile up?

    The regular season is coming to a close and the Minnesota Wild are backing into the playoffs. They won several games to get to this point, but failed at a chance to clinch their playoff spot themselves against the Vegas Golden Knights last week. Since then, they've had a string of uninspiring losses and undeserved wins. That doesn't exactly inspire confidence in those with high hopes for a deep playoff run.

    The Wild have plausible excuses, though. Their depth is being tested, losing their superstar forward Kirill Kaprizov, Selke-caliber shutdown center Joel Eriksson Ek, and stud defensemen Jared Spurgeon, among others, in recent games. Tuesday's game against the Winnipeg Jets saw Sam Steel (illness) and Marcus Johansson (injury) leave the action. Most heartbreakingly, they lost promising and fan-favorite forward Mason Shaw for the rest of the season with his fourth ACL tear in his early career.

    Fortunately, Kaprizov and Spurgeon's absences are more out of caution, gearing up for the increased physicality of post-season play. Eriksson Ek and Johansson both inspire hope that either could return, even if it doesn't look great now.

    But there's a sense of finality to Shaw's absence that might be the toughest to take. He was a player who was starting to carve his role on the roster as an energy-creator off the bench and as part of a tenacious, effective penalty-killing duo with Connor Dewar. Shaw's absence has drawn some interesting questions about the Wild's lineup and how it might shake out in their first-round matchup and — hopefully — beyond.

    Luckily, even with a Shaw-sized hole at the bottom of the roster, the Wild can draw from their deadline moves that added quality depth pieces and augment an effective and productive fourth line. With the playoffs nearly here, that's important. Fourth-line units have a history of coming up clutch for championship teams.

    It feels like ancient history, but "The Merlot Line" of Daniel Paille, Gregory Campbell, and Shawn Thornton for the Boston Bruins championship team in 2010-11 is the modern prototype for what a team should strive for in the depth lines. Even as recently as two years ago, the Tampa Bay Lightning had Pat Maroon, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, and Corey Perry. Both units combined production with an unrelenting forecheck and an ability to capitalize on the mistakes their pressure forced.

    The Wild can still do that. For a stretch during the regular season, the combination of Ryan Reaves, Dewar, and Shaw presented headaches for opponents with their blend of speed, weight, and tenacity on the forecheck. That's the blueprint Minnesota needs to re-create.

    It starts with Reaves, an endearing goon whose career-high nine goals came way back in 2018-19 with the Vegas Golden Knights. The trade pickup from November is on fire right now, with five goals and nine points in his last 20 games. I don't think anyone had the 36-year-old marked to put together one of the most productive runs of his career, but here he is, and he's as physical as advertised. Dewar brings speed, smarts, and a willingness to mix it up defensively.

    But who fills Shaw's place?

    Oskar Sundqvist can bring something complimentary to the fourth unit. At the moment, Sundqvist is out of the lineup day-to-day with a lower-body injury, but when he was on the ice, he was productive. His three goals and seven points in 15 games are as effective as you can expect from a depth piece.

    Now that Gustav Nyquist is healthy, though, he may see himself displaced from the third line. At 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, the sizeable and productive forward can be a boon for that bottom unit while meshing stylistically with the heavy and taxing play head coach Dean Evason expects them to lay on their opponents.

    It's not all rainbows and unicorns for the deadline addition from the Detroit Red Wings. Sundqvist's on-ice-impacts with the Wild have been concerning. According to HockeyViz.com, Sundqvist has sucked the life out of the Wild offense when he is out there, forcing the team to settle for low-quality point shots.

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    Goals are going in (seven of them on 5.3 expected goals), but Minnesota only generates 1.87 expected goals per hour with him on the ice. That's a 27% decrease from the rest of the team. He's not much better in his own zone, where he concedes a lot of high-danger chances from the left side of the slot and net.

    Now, it must be said that Sundqvist has yet to play much time with the team. Between injuries and Evason's shuffling in response, Sundqvist has only accumulated 169 minutes of even-strength ice time. It also takes time for any player to acclimate to a new team, a new system and a new locker room.

    If he finds his groove, though, he could mesh with a fantastic fourth line anchored by Reaves and Dewar. If he doesn't, The Wild have plenty of other options to combine with that duo, with hard-nosed speedster Brandon Duhaime. They might even put someone like Sammy Walker or Adam Beckman, both of whom are having solid years in the AHL, in that spot if injuries continue to pile up.

    And if they go the other way and return to (near) total health, with Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, and others brought back into the fold, it wouldn't be outrageous to see Marcus Foligno thrown into the bottom group. Having a "Moose" on a fourth line is the kind of depth that wins playoff games.

    Whoever is given the opportunity at the bottom of the lineup — as strange as that sounds — they could be part of a remarkable unit that can help the Wild win some playoff games. And if they do wind up clicking, maybe even sixteen.

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    Ekker won't be back for the first series at least. He could be done for the year with a broken bone in his ankle. I would consider putting Moose on the Dewar line and Walker on the 3rd line with Nyquist.

    Edited by Up North Guy
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    With Shaw and Ek out, I'm expecting to see more of Steel and Sundqvist. I like Beckman from the mix of AHL guys. I think he's got something the others don't in terms of natural scoring talent. He's had pipes and a disallowed goal with not much TOI. They probably  wanna keep the AHL team together for playoffs to some degree. It doesn't look to me like the Wild wanna bring up new guys for playoffs. I'd think Rossi and Petan go back to IA after the Nashville game.

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    I'll be curious to see what BG and Evason do.  I thought Sundqvvist was starting to play much better his last few games.  Duhaime is a solid player but doesn't seem to be pairing well with Dewar and Reaves.  Walker and Beckman could put some scoring punch on the bottom 6.  BG and Evason have shined pretty well this season in finding the right lineups to make things work.

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    I have to disagree with the thought Duhaime isn't meshing with Reaves and Dewar.  I thought he's been good on that line, he adds the speed Shaw had and is a little larger.  He and Dewar seem to kill penalties pretty well too and Duhaime seems to have better mitts than Shaw at this point.  

    I had liked the Foligno-Gaudreau-Sundqvist line and thought they were gaining momentum. Sure, their may be a lot of point shots from that line, but Sundqvist and Foligno are bangers in front who should feast on rebounds.  My biggest question mark with Sundqvist is his speed, he has looked slow out there, and looked like he was sucking wind a little too hard.  Perhaps the elevated play into the playoffs he was not conditioned for in Detroit?  

    But, where does Nyquist fit in?  To me, Steel is merely a 13th forward.  The guys got some skill, but for what he has, his finish is pathetic.  

    To me, I think the bottom lines will depend on the opponent.  For instance, years ago when Yeo was coach, he had Brodziak as his 3rd line C.  However, Brodziak couldn't keep up with the Avs, so he switched Haula to that role and shut down the Avs speed.  I think that kind of matching is what Evason will need to do, and he does not have a history of making those types of matchup switches.  

    This will also be a very important series for Evason.  This team has made the playoffs by overperforming in the regular season for 3 straight years.  Evason deserves a lot of credit for this.  However, Evason is also 0-professional coaching career in a playoff series.  If he doesn't show something this year, Shooter's got to start wondering where he goes next.  Evason likely is in the top 3 nominations for Jack Adams this season, but when it counts, he's going to need to shine.

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    1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I have to disagree with the thought Duhaime isn't meshing with Reaves and Dewar.  I thought he's been good on that line, he adds the speed Shaw had and is a little larger.  He and Dewar seem to kill penalties pretty well too and Duhaime seems to have better mitts than Shaw at this point.

    Duhaime is stepping in ok but I think we are going to miss Shaw.  4th line has been very good the last month.

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    I like the idea of a Sunqvvist, Dewar and Reaves line.  Dewar is smart enough to hold that middle while you let the two big guys bang away.  With Boldy, Freddy and Marcus producing that leaves only the 3rd line of Duhaime, Nyquist and Foligno.  I know Nyquist has not played much center.  But it would give you a physical and aggressive 3rd line. 

     

    I do worry a bit that the 4th line may be a bit slow with Sunqvvist and Reaves.  You may be correct in leaving Duhaime there for speed reasons alone.  But if you do that I'm not sure Sunqvvist moves up.  It may be better to slide Walker or Beckman to the 3rd.  As you mentioned, Matchups matter as well.  I don't see anywhere in this lineup where Steel is a good fit.  He could see 1 game out of 4 just to spell someone that is banged up a bit.

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    But, where does Nyquist fit in?  To me, Steel is merely a 13th forward.  The guys got some skill, but for what he has, his finish is pathetic.  

    Steel had a beauty finish from Hartman for a SHG just a couple games ago. The Wild need to get back into their team game that was working. Ek is the biggest missing piece. Shaw will be missed but not like Ek. Steel will be a good fit meanwhile. He wasn't bad while Hartman was out and he won't be too bad while Ek is gone. Team hockey had the Wild at the top for a stretch. It's always the same thing, when they get away from a system game and begin taking bad penalties, they struggle...

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    1 hour ago, Protec said:

     

    But, where does Nyquist fit in?  To me, Steel is merely a 13th forward.  The guys got some skill, but for what he has, his finish is pathetic.  

    Steel had a beauty finish from Hartman for a SHG just a couple games ago. The Wild need to get back into their team game that was working. Ek is the biggest missing piece. Shaw will be missed but not like Ek. Steel will be a good fit meanwhile. He wasn't bad while Hartman was out and he won't be too bad while Ek is gone. Team hockey had the Wild at the top for a stretch. It's always the same thing, when they get away from a system game and begin taking bad penalties, they struggle...

    I have to agree with you about Steel. I feel that he has picked up his game and it has taken a bit to get accustomed with different line mates. He just seems to be more hungry at this point. Maybe the extended scratch did some good. I'm hoping that he can catch fire and be that player expected of a 1st rd selection even if it was 30th overall.

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