Next Year Will Feel Like A Crossroads For the Wild's Defense

At the end of the Minnesota Wild's season, Bill Guerin gave the State of Hockey little reason to speculate about the team's blueline. "Our [defense] core is set, I'd like to focus on forwards," the general manager flatly declared.

In a sense, the Wild's defense is indeed fairly locked in. Jon Merrill and Declan Chisholm's contracts will expire, but Minnesota is set to return Brock Faber, Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, Jake Middleton, and Zach Bogosian next season. In addition, the team has top prospects Zeev Buium and David Jiricek waiting in the wings, potentially ready to make the team next year.

That's a lot of stability on the roster. Still, next season will feel like a crossroads for a Wild defense that has been as constant as it gets in the NHL. Spurgeon will be entering his 16th season in a Wild sweater, and Brodin will take the ice for his 14th. Both have been massive contributors from the start, with each averaging over 20 minutes per night in all but one season. 

Still, it seems like the Wild's defense is at the precipice of an enormous crossroads. Faber gave the group their first true taste of transition in a decade, displacing ten-year veteran Matt Dumba and becoming a Ryan Suter-esque minute-muncher. That's a shake-up, but Minnesota had no succession plans for Brodin and Spurgeon.

Now, those succession plans are arriving imminently. Buium and Jiricek aren't just two NHL-ready prospects ready to push to take playing time from in-their-30s vets. They've each got the potential to exceed Faber in talent and importance. 

Of course, the latter is a tall order -- Elite Prospects ranked Faber 13th in the NHL on their Top-100 Under-23 Skaters list in March. But Buium sat at No. 20 in their list, between NHL blueliners Lane Hutson (18) and Luke Hughes (22).

David St-Louis underlines the parallels further, saying, "In the offensive zone, he shares a striking resemblance to Hutson with his fast-twitch fakes and handling." 

Jiricek's failure to launch with the Columbus Blue Jackets has the former sixth overall pick further down the list at 66. Still, there's a ton to love about him. He's got a big shot and physicality, with both ranking a 7 on Elite Prospects' 2-to-9 scale.

"Minnesota will have to continue working with him to develop his defensive awareness, risk management, and most of all, his skating," writes St-Louis. "If those facets of his play improve, he could become one of the team's best defensemen."

Jiricek will be training this offseason to fully realize himself as a player. That means Minnesota could have a new Big 3 on the blueline as soon as next year: Buium, Faber, and Jiricek. But when will it happen? And what does that mean for the old guard?

Buium and Jiricek are arriving at an interesting time relative to Brodin and Spurgeon's contracts. Brodin's full No-Movement Clause expires on July 1, allowing the Wild to trade him as they see fit for the last three seasons of his contract.

Spurgeon's NMC turned into a modified No-Trade Clause last year (10-team no-trade list), but the odds of a team trading for a 35-year-old defenseman coming off a 16-game series were slim. There's more flexibility than ever after he proved he's back with a 66-game, 32-point season.

Of course, there's a difference between flexibility and expendability. That's the question the Wild must ask with both players this summer. And that's not an easy one to answer, either. On paper, maybe, but in practice? We have no idea. 

Last season, the Wild played 42 games while missing Brodin, Spurgeon, or both. They went 24-16-2 during those games. That record more or less matches their 82-game pace of 97 (technically, 97.6). But those games weren't equal when you look at the following breakdown.

• Missing Brodin: 17-15-1, minus-18 goal differential
• Missing Spurgeon: 9-5-1; plus-7 goal differential
• Missing Brodin + Spurgeon: 2-4-0; minus-10 goal differential

Losing Brodin on the left side -- where his backups were Jake Middleton, Declan Chisholm, and Jon Merrill -- was much more impactful to the Wild. True, they had a winning record without Brodin, but they tended to get buried alive against top teams. Turns out, his defensive presence still makes a big impact.

You may be tempted to look at the Wild's record without Spurgeon (7-1-1 in games with Brodin, and no Spurgeon), and conclude that he's expendable. Even then, it might be one of those not-so-fast scenarios.

Spurgeon's absence often took a massive toll on Faber, who wore down as the season went on. In 15 games without Spurgeon (not counting the game he left to a concussion, playing just 4:33), Faber averaged 27:28 of ice time. That's almost two more minutes of TOI than when Spurgeon was available (25:31). 

Remember, Faber doesn't play like Suter, who (thanks to having partners like Spurgeon) could conserve his energy on both sides of the ice and play 29 minutes a night. With the sheer amount of hard skating Faber does as-is, 25-plus minutes might already be too much to ideally use him. Even with Jiricek in a regular role next season, Spurgeon would help keep Faber's minutes in check, letting him maximize his game on both sides of the ice.

Those are reasons not to think the Wild will look to trade those two. But could Buium surpass Brodin in terms of minutes on the left side of the defense? Or could Jiricek do the same to Spurgeon on the right? That'll be interesting to see.

Of course, a lot will depend on those prospects and how ready they are. Buium continues to show that all the guy does is win, helping the United States win World Championship Gold for the first time since (this is not a joke) the Herbert Hoover administration. He had a goal and four points in the tournament, despite Team USA being conservative with his workload in the final.

Meanwhile, Jiricek is essentially the Wild's first-round pick this season... and its third- and fourth-rounders. They paid a premium to get him because he's got the size and talent to deliver on a much faster timetable than those picks would. He might not turn 22 until August, but he's already on his second organization, so it's getting close to put-up-or-shut-up time for him to show he can be a valuable NHL regular. Jiricek has every incentive to get ready to blow the doors off at training camp.

Seeing how high those two might rise in training camp -- and the ripple effects that could come from them establishing themselves -- might be the most exciting storyline surrounding Minnesota entering next season.