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  • Minnesota's Top Line Starting Season At Rock Bottom


    Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
    Tony Abbott

    You can count on Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello to get theirs. The inseparable forwards are simply too skilled not to regularly rack up points. Entering Monday, Zuccarello is tied for 15th in the NHL in scoring with seven points in five games. Kaprizov is one point behind him with six points, tying him for 29th. 

    Most times, their scoring carries the Minnesota Wild to wins. Over the past two years, their stalwart top line of those two scoring wingers and Ryan Hartman out-scored opponents by a 66-37 margin. This year? Not so much, at least not so far. 

    We're looking at only 55 minutes together at 5-on-5 play this year, which isn't much time. But while it's a small sample size, it's rather crucial for the team. The Wild are without Jared Spurgeon, the glue that holds their blueline together and Matt Boldy, their primary source of secondary scoring. Minnesota needs its top players to carry them, and they're not.

    In those 55 minutes, opponents are outscoring the top line, 5-3. That isn't a product of luck, either, or at least, luck that doesn't go both ways. The Wild's shooting percentage with the top line on the ice (16.3%) and their opponents' (16.7%) are both pretty lucky, but at least it's reciprocated.

    With equal shooting luck, the only differences are the opportunities, which disadvantage the Wild by a massive margin. Minnesota's top line is only getting 35.2% of the expected goals share at 5-on-5, an embarrassing amount. Of the 51 forward lines with 30-plus 5-on-5 minutes, they rank 47th in that regard. 

    During that time, Zuccarello has only three points at 5-on-5 play, with Kaprizov having just two. Both have made up for it on the power play, to some extent, with four points each. Still, constantly being in their own zone is going to catch up with them. Or rather, it has already. 

    Does that mean it's time to panic? You can look at last year's Wild through five games and conclude it isn't. Remember, the Wild started out poorly, and Kaprizov's line was no exception to this rough start. The trio got out-scored 2-5 over that time, and that was with Hartman getting moved down the lineup in Game 3. They bounced back to have a solid season.

    The difference between last season and now is that the underlying numbers favored Kaprizov's line. They out-shot opponents 21-12, and held the edge in scoring chances by a 21-14 margin. They controlled 57.5% of the expected goals share instead of getting buried by a factor of almost two-to-one. You could predict that if the trio stayed the course last year, they'd rebound. 

    If this trio stays the course, they might doom the team. They aren't just a unit that opponents are outplaying. It's a unit that's getting outplayed and soaking up a ton of minutes. Through five games, they have the sixth-most 5-on-5 minutes of any line in hockey. That represents 23.6% of all of the Wild's 5-on-5 minutes where the team is playing incompetently in the offensive and defensive zones.

    It's important to know what this line historically does well to see what they aren't doing now. We can look at last year's heat map for them and see that their M.O. was simple: shoot from everywhere.

    image.png

    Well, not literally everywhere. The team didn't do so much work down low and directly at the net. Instead they dominated the slot, high slot, and point, relying on their shooting talent to carry them through. What about that approach has carried over to this year? Let's look.

    image.png

    Yikes! That sea of dark blue extending from the crease to the slot is concerning. So is the utter lack of red in the slot. You see this line attacking from the right face-off dot, but other than that, they're notably absent from the most dangerous areas of the ice. Right now, the Wild are doubling up their expected goals totals due to lights-out shooting. Once that shooting regresses, though, watch out.

    Especially since their defense means that even if the top line's shooting remains hot, they'll be treading water at best. Our own Justin Wiggins broke it down in detail, and the heat map shows that his eyes don't lie. The first line has been awful at keeping teams from getting great looks.

    image.png

    Minnesota's top line has a good track record, which might mean that they'll be able to get back to their dominant ways. It also might mean that, as Zuccarello continues to age and Hartman (one goal, one assist through five games) drifts further from his lightning-in-a-bottle 2021-22 season, the luster on this line is fading.

    What are Evason's options?

    An obvious one is to put Joel Eriksson Ek on Kaprizov's line. The Wild's de facto No. 1 center is unsurprisingly their best 5-on-5 forward. Whether that involves keeping Kaprizov and Zuccarello together, or splitting them up to keep Eriksson Ek and Marcus Johansson (their best forward pairing at controlling expected goals), it's clear that Eriksson Ek has a lot to offer Kaprizov.

    Evason is reluctant to split up lines that are working, though, so he may be loathe to mess with Eriksson Ek and Johansson. That leaves Marco Rossi as the other candidate to move up in the lineup. Evason praised the line Rossi is on with Marcus Foligno and Freddy Gaudreau through the first few games. He's kept them intact, but a strong first two games are masking a fairly punchless third line.

    image.png

    Whatever route Evason goes, he has to get Kaprizov to the point where he's not merely a phenom on the power play and a phantom at 5-on-5.

    The early diagnosis for this is: Rossi, predictably, being on an island on this line. Rossi not only leads the Wild in 5-on-5 shots on goal with 11, but his shot rate (12.0 per hour) puts him 26th of 331 forwards with 40 or more 5-on-5 minutes. That's in the realm of the likes of Tim Stutzle (12.4 per hour), Cole Caufield (12.2), and Mikko Rantanen (11.9).

    Those 11 shots also represent 35.5% of the 31 shots on goal that have come with Rossi on the ice at 5-on-5. Given Gaudreau has only seven shots, and Foligno two while on the ice with Rossi, he's out-shooting both of his linemates combined.

    This trend continues when we look at all situations, where his work on the second power play unit is included. Overall, he's contributed 13 of the 37 shots (35.1%) and 1.32 of the 2.86 expected goals (46.2%) that have come with him on the ice. Compare that to Kaprizov, who fired 19 of his team's 64 shots (29.7%) and 1.80 of the 6.37 expected goals (28.3%) in all situations. Get the kid some help!

    Whatever route Evason takes, he has to get Kaprizov to the point where he's more productive at even strength. Minnesota relies on their star too heavily to stomach 5-on-5 struggles, especially with Boldy out. If the top line can't hack it, it'll tank the Wild's hopes of staying afloat without Spurgeon and Boldy.

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    I'd love to see Rossi get a fair shake at the Number 1 spot. Move Hartman to right wing on the 3rd line with Freddy and Moose. That would make for a gritty 3rd line that can produce some offense, while hopefully being the spark the 1st line needs.  

    Rossi was not drafted in the top 10 with the goal of him being a 3rd line center, and neither line is producing much at 5 on 5, so now might be a great time to shake that up, and see what happens. They can't get a whole lot worse. 

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    1 hour ago, Greenbean said:

    I'd love to see Rossi get a fair shake at the Number 1 spot. Move Hartman to right wing on the 3rd line with Freddy and Moose. That would make for a gritty 3rd line that can produce some offense, while hopefully being the spark the 1st line needs.  

    Rossi was not drafted in the top 10 with the goal of him being a 3rd line center, and neither line is producing much at 5 on 5, so now might be a great time to shake that up, and see what happens. They can't get a whole lot worse. 

    Putting Rossi on the 1st line isn't going to do much until Kaprivoz and Zuccarello stop forcing passes to each other.

    I went over it more in another comment, but I don't see the first line improving until Eriksson Ek is the center and Zuccarello is moved to a different line.  Ek does everything that Hartman can, just far better, and everyone on the other team knows K and Z will try to force passes to each other so they break up the play and take control of the puck.

    It's hard to put pucks on the net when you put them on the opposing team's sticks.

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    3 minutes ago, raithis said:

    Putting Rossi on the 1st line isn't going to do much until Kaprivoz and Zuccarello stop forcing passes to each other.

    I went over it more in another comment, but I don't see the first line improving until Eriksson Ek is the center and Zuccarello is moved to a different line.  Ek does everything that Hartman can, just far better, and everyone on the other team knows K and Z will try to force passes to each other so they break up the play and take control of the puck.

    It's hard to put pucks on the net when you put them on the opposing team's sticks.

    Good point and one we've made about Dean and BB before that. If you're too predictable then you're easy to defend against. UNLESS, your guys are that unstoppable like McDavid, Pastrnak, Matthews, etc. 

    MN isn't really at that level of superstars or ability to throw a change up.

     

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    Give EEK the rub for 5-10 games.  I've heard they've "tried that before and it didn't work," Try again, cause Hartman is up and down and that's not what you want in a "scoring center."  EEK has surprising offensive chops given how lauded his defense is.  He's actually leading the team in goals now.  Yes, most of it is power play hustle work, but it's better than anything Kaprizov and Zuccarello have been doing passing back and forth and 30-50% of the time either losing the puck, having it knocked away, or not SHOOTING IT THEMSELVES!

    Kaprizov used to show a crazy willingness to weave around the net and force the other players to catch him and the puck.  I haven't seen as much of that this year, and not being selfish has something to do with that.  With EEK, you can let him hold back and play defensive if you want, or let him sneak up and crash the net while Kaprizov and Zuccarello try setting stuff up.  Heck, he's even good enough to take the puck himself and stay with it.  The puck is glued to his stick sometimes.  

    EEK is their best overall player, and should be given a chance to show it.  He's proven he's a capable point getter, even compared to some of the higher end names (more points than PLD last year, while making $3 million less).

    And besides, Rossi's done fine, but isn't setting the world on fire.  Move him in if EEK doesn't work, but EEK should get first dibs.

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    I think putting Rossi or dewar on top line might work. Kappy and zucc might stop screwing around and help a kid out. Rossi and dewar both have skill , play hard and want a future contract from wild or another team. So you would think kappy and zucc would wake up. . 
        Ek. Seems like logical option but it seems to me there styles don’t mesh 5\5 . Power play they are great because ek sits from net. 
    kap Rossi zucc

    bold dewar Jo Jo 

    foligno ek Hartman 

    maroon Khaira Duhaime. 
     
      I think when forwards healthy you put fred in press box.  He makes everyone slower around him and avoids contact   Not really a checker in my book and not a true point producer. Could swap zucc and Boldy . Then 2 skill lines and 2 legit checking lines . They need to figure out a new top line for this year and coming years. Bolds an kappy should be finding chemistry with Rossi. . That’s what you drafted them for !  The vets and leaders don’t show up for start of games and historically get lost for months during seasons. So it’s time for the kids and young adults like ek , dewar and Rossi. To take the reins . Will it be successful? Who knows but what they’ve been doing last few years isn’t!!!!! There is no magic fix so let the kids play. 

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    I think putting Rossi or dewar on top line might work. Kappy and zucc might stop screwing around and help a kid out. Rossi and dewar both have skill , play hard and want a future contract from wild or another team. So you would think kappy and zucc would wake up. . 
        Ek. Seems like logical option but it seems to me there styles don’t mesh 5\5 . Power play they are great because ek sits from net. 
    kap Rossi zucc

    bold dewar Jo Jo 

    foligno ek Hartman 

    maroon Khaira Duhaime. 
     
      I think when forwards healthy you put fred in press box.  He makes everyone slower around him and avoids contact   Not really a checker in my book and not a true point producer. Could swap zucc and Boldy . Then 2 skill lines and 2 legit checking lines . They need to figure out a new top line for this year and coming years. Bolds an kappy should be finding chemistry with Rossi. . That’s what you drafted them for !  The vets and leaders don’t show up for start of games and historically get lost for months during seasons. So it’s time for the kids and young adults like ek , dewar and Rossi. To take the reins . Will it be successful? Who knows but what they’ve been doing last few years isn’t!!!!! There is no magic fix so let the kids pl

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    I think if this team was serious about a winning culture then ek would have a letter on his chest. He deserves the C . He embodies what the wild should strive to be. His compete level is off the charts. I can’t think of a time he ever took a shift off. Unlike everyone else on the team. They should reward compete level!  Spurg is a nice guy who has been on every team that’s quit in season for a month and disappeared in playoffs. I’m not blaming him but he’s had his opportunities to lead and hasn’t. Moose shouldn’t be rewarded for his  stupidity in playoffs last year. . Ek captain. Kappy A and rotate A to whoever embodies compete level like  ek. 
       You can’t change players.  So coach or captaincy might wake up these guys. Plus ek just deserves to be Captain. He’s like a Stevey Y in his professional approach to games. 

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    3 hours ago, Dean said:

       Ek. Seems like logical option but it seems to me there styles don’t mesh 5\5 . Power play they are great because ek sits from net. 

    I don't buy this.  It's not that Eriksson Ek doesn't work with them off the power play, it's that Kaprizov and Zuccarello often don't involve the rest of the players on the ice until it is a power play.  It's a problem.

    Ek shines on the power play because he screens the goalie well a picks up rebounds.  Imagine him on a line where shots can come from anywhere and the goalie is frequently losing track of the puck because Ek is blocking his view.

    You lose all this 5-on-5 if you put Ek with less offense-minded players.  Pairing him with shooters utilizes more of his skill set.

    It's also why Kaprivoz and Zuccarello need to be separated.  Putting Rossi on that line does nothing if he isn't getting the puck.  That, and K/Z give up the puck too much because the other team starts to anticipate where the puck is going.

    That's why I keep saying Kaprivoz / Ek / Boldy.  Having them on a line together gives us more puck control to get more shots off, something we don't do enough of.

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    On 10/24/2023 at 11:09 AM, Greenbean said:

    Rossi was not drafted in the top 10 with the goal of him being a 3rd line center, and neither line is producing much at 5 on 5, so now might be a great time to shake that up, and see what happens. They can't get a whole lot worse. 

    Dude let him earn it I would say he's on track to at the moment it's only his second year in starting role remember Ekker was on the third line for 2 years give Rossi some time.

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    On 10/25/2023 at 3:07 AM, AKwildkraken said:

    I think they read this article before they played the Oilers.  

    If you are referring to my comment, the Oilers are hardly a measuring stick of success.  That team is in complete disarray and they still put 4 goals on us.  I'm glad that Kap and Zucc decided to play more of a team game than they had been, but they could just as easily go back to their old, predictable habits again in the next one.  I'd love to be proven wrong though.

    Team offense - mild optimism that maybe we've turned a corner.  Give me some consistency and I'll start to believe and shed my skepticism.

    Team defense - needs a lot of work.  It's sloppy and too many people are too frequently out of position.  Maybe they find that corner tonight.  Maybe they don't.  Spurgeon returning will help, but it isn't going cure all our woes.  Defense is played by more than defenseman.

     

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