By Tony Abbott -
You can count on Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello to get theirs. The inseparable forwards are simply too skilled not to regularly rack up points. Entering Monday, Zuccarello is tied for 15th in the NHL in scoring with seven points in five games. Kaprizov is one point behind him with six points, tying him for 29th.
Most times, their scoring carries the Minnesota Wild to wins. Over the past two years, their stalwart top line of those two scoring wingers and Ryan Hartman out-scored opponents by a 66-37 margin. This year? Not so much, at least not so far.
We're looking at only 55 minutes together at 5-on-5 play this year, which isn't much time. But while it's a small sample size, it's rather crucial for the team. The Wild are without Jared Spurgeon, the glue that holds their blueline together and Matt Boldy, their primary source of secondary scoring. Minnesota needs its top players to carry them, and they're not.
In those 55 minutes, opponents are outscoring the top line, 5-3. That isn't a product of luck, either, or at least, luck that doesn't go both ways. The Wild's shooting percentage with the top line on the ice (16.3%) and their opponents' (16.7%) are both pretty lucky, but at least it's reciprocated.
With equal shooting luck, the only differences are the opportunities, which disadvantage the Wild by a massive margin. Minnesota's top line is only getting 35.2% of the expected goals share at 5-on-5, an embarrassing amount. Of the 51 forward lines with 30-plus 5-on-5 minutes, they rank 47th in that regard.
During that time, Zuccarello has only three points at 5-on-5 play, with Kaprizov having just two. Both have made up for it on the power play, to some extent, with four points each. Still, constantly being in their own zone is going to catch up with them. Or rather, it has already.
Does that mean it's time to panic? You can look at last year's Wild through five games and conclude it isn't. Remember, the Wild started out poorly, and Kaprizov's line was no exception to this rough start. The trio got out-scored 2-5 over that time, and that was with Hartman getting moved down the lineup in Game 3. They bounced back to have a solid season.
The difference between last season and now is that the underlying numbers favored Kaprizov's line. They out-shot opponents 21-12, and held the edge in scoring chances by a 21-14 margin. They controlled 57.5% of the expected goals share instead of getting buried by a factor of almost two-to-one. You could predict that if the trio stayed the course last year, they'd rebound.
If this trio stays the course, they might doom the team. They aren't just a unit that opponents are outplaying. It's a unit that's getting outplayed and soaking up a ton of minutes. Through five games, they have the sixth-most 5-on-5 minutes of any line in hockey. That represents 23.6% of all of the Wild's 5-on-5 minutes where the team is playing incompetently in the offensive and defensive zones.
It's important to know what this line historically does well to see what they aren't doing now. We can look at last year's heat map for them and see that their M.O. was simple: shoot from everywhere.
Well, not literally everywhere. The team didn't do so much work down low and directly at the net. Instead they dominated the slot, high slot, and point, relying on their shooting talent to carry them through. What about that approach has carried over to this year? Let's look.
Yikes! That sea of dark blue extending from the crease to the slot is concerning. So is the utter lack of red in the slot. You see this line attacking from the right face-off dot, but other than that, they're notably absent from the most dangerous areas of the ice. Right now, the Wild are doubling up their expected goals totals due to lights-out shooting. Once that shooting regresses, though, watch out.
Especially since their defense means that even if the top line's shooting remains hot, they'll be treading water at best. Our own Justin Wiggins broke it down in detail, and the heat map shows that his eyes don't lie. The first line has been awful at keeping teams from getting great looks.
Minnesota's top line has a good track record, which might mean that they'll be able to get back to their dominant ways. It also might mean that, as Zuccarello continues to age and Hartman (one goal, one assist through five games) drifts further from his lightning-in-a-bottle 2021-22 season, the luster on this line is fading.
What are Evason's options?
An obvious one is to put Joel Eriksson Ek on Kaprizov's line. The Wild's de facto No. 1 center is unsurprisingly their best 5-on-5 forward. Whether that involves keeping Kaprizov and Zuccarello together, or splitting them up to keep Eriksson Ek and Marcus Johansson (their best forward pairing at controlling expected goals), it's clear that Eriksson Ek has a lot to offer Kaprizov.
Evason is reluctant to split up lines that are working, though, so he may be loathe to mess with Eriksson Ek and Johansson. That leaves Marco Rossi as the other candidate to move up in the lineup. Evason praised the line Rossi is on with Marcus Foligno and Freddy Gaudreau through the first few games. He's kept them intact, but a strong first two games are masking a fairly punchless third line.
Whatever route Evason goes, he has to get Kaprizov to the point where he's not merely a phenom on the power play and a phantom at 5-on-5.
The early diagnosis for this is: Rossi, predictably, being on an island on this line. Rossi not only leads the Wild in 5-on-5 shots on goal with 11, but his shot rate (12.0 per hour) puts him 26th of 331 forwards with 40 or more 5-on-5 minutes. That's in the realm of the likes of Tim Stutzle (12.4 per hour), Cole Caufield (12.2), and Mikko Rantanen (11.9).
Those 11 shots also represent 35.5% of the 31 shots on goal that have come with Rossi on the ice at 5-on-5. Given Gaudreau has only seven shots, and Foligno two while on the ice with Rossi, he's out-shooting both of his linemates combined.
This trend continues when we look at all situations, where his work on the second power play unit is included. Overall, he's contributed 13 of the 37 shots (35.1%) and 1.32 of the 2.86 expected goals (46.2%) that have come with him on the ice. Compare that to Kaprizov, who fired 19 of his team's 64 shots (29.7%) and 1.80 of the 6.37 expected goals (28.3%) in all situations. Get the kid some help!
Whatever route Evason takes, he has to get Kaprizov to the point where he's more productive at even strength. Minnesota relies on their star too heavily to stomach 5-on-5 struggles, especially with Boldy out. If the top line can't hack it, it'll tank the Wild's hopes of staying afloat without Spurgeon and Boldy.
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