By Tom Schreier -
Craig Button has a warning for the Minnesota Wild.
“Be careful about trading skill,” he said on a recent podcast with The Athletic’s Joe Smith.
Button shouldn’t have to issue such a warning. The Wild lack skill, and they have for a long time. Part of it is the cap restrictions from buying out Ryan Suter and Zach Parise, which lighten next year. However, it’s also because they’ve lodged themselves squarely in the NHL’s mushy middle.
The Wild have made the playoffs in 11 of the past 13 years, but haven’t made it out of the first round since 2014-15. They don’t have enough skill to win in the playoffs. However, they can’t acquire it because they don’t have high enough draft picks to select players with the size and skill they want.
Case in point: Marco Rossi.
Button is a former scouting director for the Minnesota North Stars and Dallas Stars from 1988 to 2000, and was the Calgary Flames general manager from 2000 to 2003. On Smith’s podcast, Button said Rossi could grow into “a really good player in the National Hockey League” despite losing development time due to a COVID-19-related heart condition.
Rossi is coming off a 24-goal, 60-point season. Few teams would give up on a 23-year-old center, especially one like the Wild, with only one other top-6 center on the roster. During his end-of-season press conference, Guerin emphasized the need for center depth.
“I think Ekky (Joel Eriksson Ek) needs a little help,” Guerin said. “He’s in a battle every single night. And there’s no easy nights for him. So I think we could create some help there.”
All Guerin and John Hynes need to do to help Eriksson Ek is elevate Rossi to the second line. Rossi held his own as a top-line center last year. He can play with Matt Boldy, as he did in Kirill Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek’s absence. However, Guerin has always prioritized size and experience, likely because he was a large forward who was more productive in his 30s than his 20s, an anomaly in hockey.
Guerin and Rossi are at an impasse. Guerin low-balled him with a five-year, $25 million offer, chump change for a scoring center with upside. Had Guerin had the foresight to sign Rossi before the cap increase, he may have been able to get Rossi on a five-year, $35 million contract. That’s third-line center money, albeit on the high end, under the new cap.
Had the Wild worked ahead with Rossi, they would have given themselves time to build center depth on the NHL roster. Assuming Minnesota moves Rossi, it’s left with the hope that Danila Yurov will convert from wing to center or that Charlie Stramel will pan out.
The Wild took Yurov 22nd overall in 2022 and signed the 21-year-old Russian after five years in the KHL. He should be productive early, given that he’s played at a high level in his home country. However, Minnesota shouldn’t assume he can convert to center immediately (or ever), given he’s adjusting to moving stateside and playing in a better league.
A year later, the Wild selected Charlie Stramel 21st overall. They reached for Stramel, undoubtedly enticed by his 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame. However, Stramel had 20 points in 67 games as a freshman and sophomore at Wisconsin.
Stramel transferred to Michigan State last year, where he played for Adam Nightingale, his former US National Development Program coach. He had 27 points in 37 games under Nightingale, scoring more goals (9) in one season with Michigan State than he did in two (8) with Wisconsin. Still, it’s a stretch to believe the 20-year-old will be NHL-ready soon.
Banking on Yurov or Stramel to replace Rossi next season is wishful thinking, not planning. Instead, Guerin may turn to the free-agent market. However, they may have locked themselves into the wrong offseason to improve in the open market. Replacing Rossi in free agency likely means overspending on a lesser player.
They could seek a trade. However, at Guerin’s end-of-season press conference, he said, “Our [defense] core is set. I’d like to focus on forwards.”
Trading Rossi for a defenseman increases a weakness without creating a strength. Furthermore, trading a player like Jonas Brodin to get a better return as part of a Rossi trade disrupts a defensive corps that “is set.” In doing so, the Wild would be robbing Peter to pay Paul.
The Wild should heed Button’s warning. They can’t afford to trade skill. Rossi is an imperfect player, but fallers in the draft often lack in some area.
The New Jersey Devils selected Guerin fifth overall in 1989. Guerin is unlikely to find players like himself after the first five selections. He needed to bottom out during cap hell if he wanted players with his size and skill.
Instead, he banked on director of amateur scouting Judd Brackett to find fallers who could become part of a winning core. Brackett worked with the picks Minnesota had after being one-and-done in the playoffs. That means taking Rossi and Buium, who dropped in the draft because of size, the lumbering Stramel, and Yurov, a wing they want to convert to center.
Cap hell has come and gone. Christmas morning may never come. The Wild missed their chance to bottom out and build a contender like the Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks, and Florida Panthers did. Instead, Guerin must work with the talent in the organization.
A 23-year-old center who scored 60 points last year is a good place to start. Guerin can’t let perfect become the enemy of the good. Otherwise, he will be unsatisfied with Rossi and many of the prospects the Wild acquired while being a one-and-done playoff team in cap hell.
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