By Tony Abbott -
If you're looking for the word that will define the Minnesota Wild's offseason, you might want to place your bets on "expendable." Minnesota will be facing the second consecutive season with a salary cap artificially deflated by $14.7 million due to the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter buyouts. Presumably, they'll want to improve this bubble team but will have only around $2 million to fill four or five roster spots.
That's going to lead to difficult choices. Fans, the media, and the front office must ask themselves, who's expendable? Who can we most afford to lose?
Looking through that framework, it's hard to see a future where this summer isn't focused on a conversation surrounding two Wild players: Captain Jared Spurgeon and potential Calder Trophy finalist Marco Rossi.
Why those two names in particular? With Spurgeon, it's a hunch. But aside from Kirill Kaprizov, Spurgeon is the player who would free up the most cap space in a trade. The $7.575 million Minnesota could recoup in cap space would be tempting, especially as Spurgeon is coming off a season-ending injury and will turn 35 next November.
For the first time in years, moving Spurgeon would be theoretically possible because his full No-Movement Clause will shrink to a 10-team no-trade list. The pieces are there, even if we're not hearing any rumors about it (yet).
With Rossi, there's actual smoke surrounding his trade speculation. On February 28, leading up to the trade deadline, The Athletic's Michael Russo and Joe Smith heavily hinted that a Rossi move could be on the table, even after a rookie season where he's put up 18 goals and 17 assists in 69 games.
"We're still not convinced the Wild are ready to commit to him long-term," the insiders wrote of the 22-year-old, who is tied for fourth on the team in goals. "[But] the trade deadline is typically not the time to trade a young asset like this. That's a summer move."
Smith elaborated on the point in a March 4 mailbag when a reader asked if incoming Marat Khusnutdinov could be behind the speculation around Rossi. "The skilled Russian isn't the reason Minnesota might listen on Rossi this summer," he explained. "To me, the Wild said everything about their belief in Rossi last spring when they signed Freddy Gaudreau, then Ryan Hartman in September [to extensions]."
While he doesn't outright say the word, "expendable" was the dominant flavor in outlining Bill Guerin's possible logic. "A franchise often short on centers has Joel Eriksson Ek, Khusnutdinov, Rossi, Gaudreau, and Hartman up the middle, plus Riley Heidt expected to make his case [in training] camp," wrote Smith. "Rossi could be a player the Wild move this offseason if the right deal comes up."
You'll hear similar logic if and when Spurgeon's trade speculation arises. Brock Faber plays the right side of the defense, Spurgeon's position, and looks like a No. 1 option. Zach Bogosian had a strong year filling in the second pair with Spurgeon out. Can the Wild backfill that third-pairing role and move on? Is Spurgeon expendable? Is Rossi?
The Wild will be better off if their answer is a resounding No in both cases.
We can start with Spurgeon, with whom we have a very compelling reason to believe he is not expendable: He wasn't expendable this season. The Wild are three points behind the Vegas Golden Knights in the playoffs. In theory, they aren't four back because Spurgeon gave them 1.0 Standings Points Above Replacement (SPAR) in just 16 games for Minnesota this season. If the Wild squeak into the playoffs, a small amount of playing time from a clearly hurt Spurgeon might end up being the difference.
And a healthy-ish Spurgeon would make a difference if he were in the lineup. Since turning 30, Spurgeon averages 5.46 SPAR per 82 games. Concerns about Spurgeon's durability tend to be overblown (until this year), as from ages 29 to 33, he played in 342 of a possible 371 games or 92.2%. But let's be on the pessimistic side and even limit him to 50 more games this season (66 total). That would add, on average... 3.32 points. Even rounded down, Spurgeon would be the difference between Minnesota being tied for a playoff spot and the 23.5% odds they have today.
By definition, that isn't expendable. Expending Spurgeon (involuntarily) might well cost them a playoff spot.
While injuries will undoubtedly be a question, Spurgeon's age is less of one than you might think. No player is guaranteed to age gracefully, of course. However, players who compare to Spurgeon tend to do better than average. Evolving-Hockey lists Francois Beauchemin, Brian Campbell, Mark Giordano, Niklas Kronwall, Paul Martin, Anton Stralman, Ryan Suter, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, and Shea Weber as his most similar skaters.
How did those players fare in their age-35 year and beyond?
Kronwall and Martin went sour immediately, with Stralman and Vlasic turning in below-replacement SPAR seasons within a year. Injuries forced Weber into LTIRetirement, wiping off the Montreal Canadiens' cap obligations from the books, which is probably a wash. But Beauchemin and Robidas squeezed out positive-value years at ages 35 and 36. Campbell played through age-37, finishing with 10.4 in three seasons -- all above replacement level. Giordano (age-39, 13.1 SPAR since age-35) and Suter (age-38, 5.8 SPAR since age-35) have yet to post below-replacement level seasons.
As for Rossi, it's a bit mind-boggling that Minnesota could somehow not be sold on their best rookie center ever. Even after a recent 10-game pointless streak, Rossi still rates as one of Minnesota's best players at 5-on-5.
Here's how he ranks in some crucial categories:
Goals per hour: Third (behind Matt Boldy, Kirill Kaprizov)
Points per hour: Fifth (behind Boldy, Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, Ryan Hartman)
Individual Expected Goals per hour: Third (behind Eriksson Ek, Kaprizov)
Penalties Drawn: First
Goals For%: Fifth (behind Spurgeon, Marcus Foligno, Jonas Brodin, Eriksson Ek)
Expected Goals For%: Fifth (behind Spurgeon, Boldy, Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek)
On-Ice Expected Goals per hour: Fourth (behind Kaprizov, Boldy, Eriksson Ek)
The caveat is that it'd have to be "the right deal," but what's "the right deal" for your fourth-best forward and second-best center? No one is untouchable, theoretically. But there's also a reason we're not hearing fellow Wild rookie Brock Faber's name as being available in "the right deal." It's a ludicrous notion to trade him and unrealistic to think a team would offer enough to tempt Minnesota.
So why is Rossi, apparently, obtainable?
It has to be said: The Wild don't have too many centers. That isn't possible. And if the Wild are arrogant enough to believe they have enough to make Rossi expendable, they're headed for a massive fall. Having players like Gaudreau (age-30, -1.6 SPAR this season, career 1.0 SPAR with Minnesota) and even a very good but soon-to-be-30 Hartman factor into how a team handles their young assets is ludicrous.
Sure, there are upcoming prospects like Khusnutdinov, Heidt, and Danila Yurov, who the team believes can play center. All three are very good, interesting prospects. They also have a combined 18 fewer goals and 34 fewer points than Rossi has in his career. Rossi has proved that he can play a top-six center role. Khusnutdinov has played three NHL games. As spectacular as Yurov has been in the KHL, they drafted him as a winger. Heidt's breakout season in the WHL is impressive, but he won't turn 19 until Monday.
As fun as it is to dream on these guys, any one of them could be just okay. Or have to move to the wing to be successful. Or fail to grab an NHL roster spot altogether. Trading Rossi -- a 22-year-old top-six center -- means counting on these players to deliver. If that's the case, they must be right in their evaluations.
But even if Khusnutdinov, Heidt, and Yurov all hit and become NHL-caliber centers, shouldn't that be exactly what Minnesota wants? Why trade Rossi and blow a hole in that coveted depth chart of pivots?
The Dallas Stars demolished the Wild in the playoffs last year and did so on the backs of their incredible center depth. Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz, and Wyatt Johnston were all top-six caliber centermen. Once Pavelski went down, Seguin stepped right in and terrorized Minnesota. Meanwhile, Joel Eriksson Ek got hurt, and the Wild's top-six centers suddenly became Hartman and Sam Steel.
What did Dallas do to that surplus this offseason? They beefed it up, signing Matt Duchene while hoarding their precious pile of center depth. Having two full lines worth of top-six centers explains why they're neck-and-neck with the Winnipeg Jets and Colorado Avalanche in the race to first place in the Central Division.
Now look at Minnesota, whose playoff push might be stalled after injuries to Eriksson Ek and Brodin. Suddenly, Rossi is probably the only impact center on the roster, depending on how you feel about Hartman, and Faber is the only impact defenseman on the blueline. We know how dire this looks with Spurgeon out of the mix. What happens if Rossi goes, too?
It's very simple: No team can have enough blue-chip players, impact defensemen, or good, young centers. Elite teams don't give those guys away; they load up. Suppose the Wild feel they have a surplus at these crucial positions and decide to trade from these strengths. Then it will be very difficult to make it to the other side of such a deal closer to, and not further away from, Stanley Cup contention.
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