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  • Minnesota's Future Is Still Intact

    Image courtesy of Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
    Sean Flick

    By Sean Flick -

     

    Did you hear that Minnesota hockey faithful? The collective sigh of exasperation from all of us after the Wild were mathematically eliminated from the 2023-24 playoffs? 

    It's been an interesting season, to say the least. Injuries to key players. Average goaltending. Raised eyebrow signings in the offseason. A winless record against the top three teams in the Central. A coaching change. The inexplicable decision to leave Jesper Wallstedt in his first NHL game, where he gave up seven goals.

    The season hasn’t been a complete loss, though. Marat Khusnutdinov joined the team after signing his entry-level contract, and everyone cheered after each faceoff win in his first game with the team. Vladislav Firstov rejoined the club and is currently playing in Iowa. Riley Heidt is tearing it up in the WHL with 117 points in 66 games. Liam Ohgren signed and is also in Iowa. 

    On Wednesday, the club promoted him to St. Paul. Danila Yurov had 49 points in 62 games in the KHL this season. Will we see him in the Wild’s development and tryouts this summer? I hope so. Wallstedt got his first win, a shutout, against the Chicago Blackhawks. He’s the first Wild goaltender to have a shutout for their first win. Marco Rossi also showed that he belongs in the NHL. 

    All good things, indeed.

    As I was doing research for this article, I noticed something. I’m wondering if anyone else noticed this. With all the consternation from the hockey faithful around those eyebrow-raising signings this past offseason, I saw that the Marcus Foligno, Ryan Hartman, and Freddy Gaudreau contracts switched from a no-move clause (NMC) to a limited no-trade clause (LNTC) in 2025? 

    Actually, Gaudreau’s contract is entirely an LNTC. Interesting, no? Because that is the first season after the vaulted cap hell, contracts fall off the books. Hmmm. I feel my faith in Bill Guerin returning. Was he thinking, Well, now that we get $14 million in cap space back, I could also get another $10.1 million by moving those three guys? 

    The Wild have 11 players under contract for the 2025-26 season. They have $54 million in contracts, and we know the cap is going up next season, let’s say to $85 million. If we have the same cap in 2025 and Guerin moves those 3 contracts, Minnesota would only have $43.9 million in contracts on the books with 8 players. That would give them $41.1 in available cap to spend.

    Also, by moving those 3 contracts, the gates open up for the kids to come in and fill open slots. Perfect! If what people are saying is true, the Wild could potentially field a team whose first three lines are loaded with top 6 forwards. And a 4th line with third/fourth/specialists? Who wouldn’t want that? It’s called depth, right? 

    Will it be easy to keep the group together? No. That's the downside of having a prospect pool filled with talent. If anything, a good GM can parlay that talent into wise deals while retaining depth. That’s why they get paid the big bucks.

    However, we could see a forward group of Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, Boldly, Rossi, Khusnutdinov, Yurov, Firstov, Heidt, Mason Shaw, Ohgren, Sammy Walker, and Rasmus Kumpulainen. On defense, the Wild would likely have Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, Brock Faber, Zach Bogosian, Dakota Mermis, and Carson Lambos, with Wallstedt and Gustavsson in net.

    Kaprizov and Rossi need extensions, and they need to pay Faber. Rossi has done everything the Wild have asked of him, including missing his sister's wedding. Now reward him. Signing Faber and Rossi means the Wild would have 8 of the 18 players mentioned above under contract. Could we get the remaining 10 signed? I think so. 

    Kaprizov’s extension wouldn’t hit the books until the 2026 season when Zach Parise and Ryan Suter come off the books, and the Wild get an additional $10 million in cap space. Faber could command a comparable contract to Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes in the $9 to $10 million range. Rossi could get something like what Boldy got, the $5 to $7 million range. That would be $17 million to sign Faber and Rossi of the $41 million, leaving $24 million for 10 to 12 more players. About a $2 million average per player? I think Guerin could do it. 

    There’s also the question of Wallstedt. He’s under a minor league contract through next year. If he blossoms in the 2024-25 season, which I think he will, what kind of money would he command? He’s a restricted free agent in 2025, so the Wild have a little control there. However, a fair contract over 5 years would be the best-case scenario. That would take him to his 28th birthday, around the time that goalies really come into their own and command more money, and in 2030, the Wild should also be able to do that. 

    So, friends, I think we can all breathe a sigh of relief rather than exasperation. The future is bright in Minnesota. The Wild’s depth will make them a contender. Let’s enjoy it.

    By Sean Flick  

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    mnfaninnc
    13 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

    Beckman does not look like he belongs in the NHL at this point.  I don't think Shaw, Letteri or Luccini have been consistently effective either but they at least have had moments.  

    Hoos looks like a keeper.  Oghren still TBD.  

    Beckman does not. He's too light. He has to gain strength/weight to get it done. If he refuses again this offseason to do what is needed, I think we need to use him as trade bait.

    Shaw doesn't look so good either. I think he's worried about his knee and is not in good playing condition either. Most players do not come back from ACL surgeries right after they start. Peterson was a unicorn in that aspect. 

    Ogie will be a keeper, and Dino is too. I don't believe Lettieri will be more than a call up, but Lucchini has shown some things but also needs more strength/weight to play in the role we gave him here. I think he's back to a 2-way deal next season, though. 

    I do believe Yurov will be a keeper too, and if we could get all 3 guys on the roster to grow together, that could be big. Also having The Wall in uniform certainly changes our team age. I'm looking forward to having the rookies have a larger role than they have now. What this means, though, is that we will need to be ok if they make mistakes. We should be demanding they learn from them, though.

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    Will D. Ness
    36 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Beckman does not. He's too light. He has to gain strength/weight to get it done. If he refuses again this offseason to do what is needed, I think we need to use him as trade bait.

    Shaw doesn't look so good either. I think he's worried about his knee and is not in good playing condition either. Most players do not come back from ACL surgeries right after they start. Peterson was a unicorn in that aspect. 

    Ogie will be a keeper, and Dino is too. I don't believe Lettieri will be more than a call up, but Lucchini has shown some things but also needs more strength/weight to play in the role we gave him here. I think he's back to a 2-way deal next season, though. 

    I do believe Yurov will be a keeper too, and if we could get all 3 guys on the roster to grow together, that could be big. Also having The Wall in uniform certainly changes our team age. I'm looking forward to having the rookies have a larger role than they have now. What this means, though, is that we will need to be ok if they make mistakes. We should be demanding they learn from them, though.

     Shaw has seemed to be a little gun shy, but he proved himself last season when he is 100%.  I'm betting he will get a contract over Luccini.  Maybe both?

    Hoos and Ohgren looked pretty damned good together vs LA.  You are right... they probably will make the roster as the new and improved Deweys.  Hoos is going to explode IMO.  He is a ticking bomb.  I just haven't seen enough of Ohgren yet.

    I thought Yurov signed another for another year?  If not, he is almost assuredly going to make the roster.

    Now if we can only get rid of Nojo...

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    mnfaninnc
    5 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

    I thought Yurov signed another for another year?  If not, he is almost assuredly going to make the roster.

    I believe the Yurov situation is still fluid. He's got an unsigned contract in place with Metallurg, but was waiting until the end of the season to sign it....or, make the jump. The Metallurg contract is only for $330k, which is significantly more than the A, but significantly less than the N. 

    IIRC, he wants a clause in his ELC that if he does not make the team, he will be loaned back to Metallurg. While this is not standard in the ELC agreement (I believe), Guerin has been known to have "handshake" agreements beyond the contract. 

    Personally, I think with the selling at the TDL, that signaled to Yurov there is room if you can make it. The options we have with Johansson and Gaudreau to be moved are good if that player can climb the ladder and beat them out. 

    I expect him to sign his ELC after this long, deep Metallurg run to the Cup finals in Russia. Kaprizov has said he's waiting for him. Kaprizov has said he isn't talking with him right now. As soon as that series ends, I expect Kaprizov to recruit him here. Based upon what we've seen from Ogie and Dino, I'd say that is a good testament as to how good Yurov can be here. Now all he needs is a good nickname.

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    Will D. Ness
    2 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I expect him to sign his ELC after this long, deep Metallurg run to the Cup finals in Russia. Kaprizov has said he's waiting for him. Kaprizov has said he isn't talking with him right now. As soon as that series ends, I expect Kaprizov to recruit him here. Based upon what we've seen from Ogie and Dino, I'd say that is a good testament as to how good Yurov can be here. Now all he needs is a good nickname.

    Yeah, it seems that success in the KHL is translating pretty damned good whereas success in the AHL isn't as robust.  He shouldn't worry about the money.

    As far as a nickname... it better not be Yurie.

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    mnfaninnc
    19 hours ago, Up North Guy said:

    How about KK97 - OV1, Dino - OV2, Firstov - OV3, Yurov - OV4? The "OV" crew.

    Could you imagine LaPanta figuring this out?

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    Pewterschmidt
    On 4/15/2024 at 7:44 PM, mnfaninnc said:

    Perhaps it's just me, but he also looks to run someone along the boards rather than skate stop

    Shawzy understands his role.  4th liners should be more Clutterbuck and less Nojo.  Luchini and Letteri could extend their careers by doubling their body check totals (without doubling their PIM's).  As the Hartman's (more Finnish than Swedish) and Foligno's (Guerin's emotional support animal & team meathead) get older and slide down the lineup, the bubble NHL'rs will get sent to the European no-check spritzer league.

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    mnfaninnc
    55 minutes ago, MacGyver said:

    If we must insist on these silly nick names there is the official way to do it.

    Genius should have been under the letter G. Nobody was more of a genius than Gretzky.

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    The Minnesota Grit Goons

    1. I don't understand why the Rossi offseason isn't mandatory and replicated for most prospects, especially weaklings.  Can anyone explain this?  How is this not part of the commitment.

    2. I'm worried that we risk keeping Kap to get 2 more years of sales out of him and then he has the power to walk for no return value. Is there any way we can get him to at least allow us to leverage his trade value near the end of his contract, even if he wants to move.  Or does being a free agent get him more money?  If Demidov falls to 5ish, can we trade up to get him to almost force Kap to stay with 4 russians + firstov.  lol  Trade 2024 1st  + Rossi/Peart/Spurgeon? + maybe a 2nd or 3rd pick.  Or we could trade for another russian.

    We NEED Kap to resign or get a decent return on him.  Otherwise we risk not being scary good  from 2026 - 2030.

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